Tsappfrog20
Member
I mean for central and coastal nc it’s not horrible overall but I know only some of the people in the group are from there so not great for the majority of the SE
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I mean for central and coastal nc it’s not horrible overall but I know only some of the people in the group are from there so not great for the majority of the SE
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That is not my favorite! How did it still kinda work!
iGRXY
Member
CMC looks even better lol
I’m just starting to not see how we get a better closer phased look at this lead time we’re at. It would take major adjustments on most modeling. I could see how The overall overrunning could be better then advertised especially if the northern stream press backs off some off the SE and the pac based digging vort is better tilted. thats more of a possibility to me. But phasing to a bomb ? Idk
BKWRN29
Member
What models were most accurate in this time frame for the previous storm?
Have no idea, there isn't even much of a SW flow aloft for moisture transport this far north. Shows you how bad the GFS can be imho, seems to just spit out what it wants regardless of synoptics
RollTide18
Member
The warming trend stopped for mby for now thankfully, I halfway expected rain this run 
Tsappfrog20
Member
The GDPS already has more moisture it’s going to take off again I think
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iGRXY
Member
still some time but likely need to see some meaningful trends with modeling start now
not sure if i'm a fan of the lower heights out west trend, we'll see
GDPS has been so incredibly consistent. Pretty wild.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
You've just gotta laugh involving the CMC.
I'll be more interested when the RGEM gets closer to in range, but this has to be just badly wrong like how it was too late on the first system of interest in January.
I'll be more interested when the RGEM gets closer to in range, but this has to be just badly wrong like how it was too late on the first system of interest in January.
I'll be honest, this question has been asked numerous times over the last couple of days and it's not as simple as model xyz did good last time so it will this time. Different models handle different setups differently better or worse, sometimes one model is good, next time it isn't. Overall verification scores still say pay close attention to the Euro but even that's had it's issues at times. Let's just see how all this plays out
CMC and RGEM both at 84 hours. They're in lockstep.
Stormsfury
Member
The GEM also slowed the northern stream down a tad at 84hr. Probably going to work though and I think it'll hold serve for now.
I mean this is major differences at D3 that the CMC has 
nvm likely another banger incoming
iGRXY
Member
If I’m not mistaken, this is what the AI models were showing with the southern energy breaking off (or about to). The end result was similar as well.
Well I believe the RGEM is a by product of the CMC .. similar to the NAM and GFS so this would make sense that they should generally be on the same page.
You'll be hard pressed to find a SE weenie that isn't happy with this:
RollTide18
Member
Downeastnc
Member
I'm not mad....a lot of the highest totals include sleet and this is 10:1 which is gonna be low.
This is ridiculous. What is the Canadian seeing that other models can’t see ? It’s all northern stream related to and how it progresses it
i keep on wondering when the cmc will back down and instead it ticked a little better than the 12z lol
It’s gotta be confused by the cold Arctic air mass and thinks we’re in the far north
Y’all this is 6 or 7 straight runs of nearly the same thing… I am lost here.
buckinbronco
Member
Canadian is about to look like a genius or a complete fool…
I just have a hard time believing somehow the CMC is worlds better than the GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles.
CMC seems to be the most out to lunch vs the GFS. Regardless, it’s going to be extremely embarrassing for one of these models. My bet is the CMC is off.
Still think this is a solid winter storm for the coastal regions. More ice south with the warming upper levels. 1-2 inches for inland areas around Raleigh maybe less towards the foothills. Sweet spot for snow will be the outerbanks region of NC.
Hope somehow things can trend bigger for the whole group but inland areas still have much time to score in the winter.
CMC seems to be the most out to lunch vs the GFS. Regardless, it’s going to be extremely embarrassing for one of these models. My bet is the CMC is off.
Still think this is a solid winter storm for the coastal regions. More ice south with the warming upper levels. 1-2 inches for inland areas around Raleigh maybe less towards the foothills. Sweet spot for snow will be the outerbanks region of NC.
Hope somehow things can trend bigger for the whole group but inland areas still have much time to score in the winter.
Maybe the CMC is actually doing well due to the extra data assimilation over Canada..
7 straight. It’s gonna get crucified (rightly) when this doesn’t happen
tractor girl
Member
With just a little more NW trend a lot more of us will be sitting pretty.
Downeastnc
Member
I bunch of the Euro and GFS ensembles show what the CMC just ran....
John1122
Member
Imby the Canadian/RGEM. The Euro finally got my area right 24 hours out. The NAM/GFS missed pretty badly.
That or either the rest of our models are absolute crap. This has got to be bad or good data somewhere causing this. The crazy uncle has never did this at day ten much less just over four days out.