This looks much better in terms of a possible connection than the GFS from earler.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
I don’t want to jump the gun here but the UK might go for it this run
iGRXY
Member
I doubt it’ll make a leap that much in 1 run but the orientation thru 72 is wayyyyy better
i don't think the southern wave is going to catch up in time, but should be a reassuring run
Comparing this UK run at 72 to its other runs in past days its sorta more leaning toward thr 16 00z run as far as feature not quite there but moving toward that which was a good run similar to GFS and CMC
DAWG4LIFE
Member
If the CMC continues to stick to its guns, and this is an epic fail for it, it either needs to be totally revamped or totally retired! Because you could not trust it for anything at that point ?! doesn’t matter how far out, how close in, you just couldn’t trust it…so why would you keep putting the same product out there?
iGRXY
Member
Tbh it may not show it at the surface but I’m starting to feel like we may not need the perfect H5 look. The CMC really does just enough early on to get the lift needed for overrunning and the Arctic airmass to pretty much do what they do. The same could be said here with this run even if we don’t necessarily get the surface reflection. Just a thought
coming around to this, perfect h5 look would be a ton of fun though
It was clearly headed for glory because it’s froze now. They had to stop it just like they stop the lottery sometimes when they need to “fix” it.
iGRXY
Member
The perfect H5 look gets you something the euro was spitting out a few days ago. And honestly you need it for these globals outside of the CMC to get the surface reflection to show it because they simply have a history of under performing with overrunning and WAA generated precip. But if we just get the lift and get the jet screaming SW to NE like every model has shown you’re pretty much set in getting a solid precip shield that should put down some solid totals and especially ratios. Over a larger area than being depicted.
Yeah the CMC is not relying on some specific H5 look. It has shown about 5 different looks at H5 yet still resulted in similar snowfall output - I believe it is more about the intense Arctic air mass and surface level processes including isentropic upglide / frontogenesis forcing. I posted this earlier but had a mistake so I removed it. The CMC has been oscillating a lot at H5 but producing similar footprints of snow. Why? It has to be those surface features like I mentioned. That's the one thing it has remained (fairly) consistent with.
NCSNOW
Member
Close,but leaves ss behind at very last second. Nose hair away. Way to pos tilted
beanskip
Member
UK doesn't whiff again, but just some coastal spittle, most of it a cold rain.
that little difference at H5 and the sfc reflection. 
iGRXY
Member
Something I’ve noticed on even the models that don’t do much, it appears our N/S early on is improving run to run but roughly around hr 60-75 that’s where you start to lose it and the N/S races out in front. Idk if that’s correctable at this point but we’ve seen improvement early on with these runs with it’s placement vs prior runs so maybe that can trend better within the next 24-48 hours.
For comparison’s sake, the gfs trend. It’s just not as cold. Gives me even more pause about the cmc given its cold notoriety
counterpoint- to me CMC secret sauce is way stronger tilt with a more consolidated trough than everyone else
We've got to find a way to slow that northern stream down a little.
iGRXY
Member
See I see it opposite. This airmass is legit. If this was your typical marginal airmass, then yeah I could see your point but it’s not. Also the GFS is really bad with these types of overrunning FGEN driven setups. To me the only reason the CMC seems realistic is because we know how cold this airmass is likely to be.
It's almost assuredly too cold, it always is. I'm just trying to figure out why it continues to output this snowfall footprint despite wildly varying H5 evolutions.
iGRXY presents the counterpoint above, however. We won't really know if it's valid until we get deeper into NAM and RGEM territory.
Already like the northern stream bending more into western Canada on the 00z euro. But still early in the run
I wonder if it’s a combo of what you and Ross said tbh. Too cold inland produces more overrunning, right? Combine that with consistently stronger/consolidated trough you get a bang
The Canadian ens about to double down as well 
Ummm. so far that wave around ND/SD getting held back way more. Everything in general is further west 
I think our points are related TBH. Stronger overrunning initially over TX may be leading to some of the downstream effects. It's definitely a combo of factors, it's not just one thing that's for sure. Will be interesting to see what the RGEM and NAM do with this.
iGRXY
Member
add the euro to the list that is more improved early on with the N/S, but this is where the wheels have been falling off going forward
iGRXY
Member
Well that’s a huge improvement
Pretty significant shift towards the Canadian here there’s no denying that 
Hang on now!
Woah !!! Footprint way NW 
Definitely further north with the initial tongue of precip on the 00z euro.
iGRXY
Member
Ohhhhhh boy lolol
Snowflowxxl
Member
Woof woof woof
It was pretty obvious this would come eventually.
It was pretty obvious this would come eventually.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Biblical storm coming for the SE. The kind they will be talking about in 50 years. Get your supplies now.
Close up. And this ain’t the Canadian! 
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yep, we need the n/s coming in over the Dakotas instead of Wisconsin
Small adjustment.
Wow. The CMC is suddenly not looking so crazy anymore 
