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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Great googly moogly. The almighty king Canadian just dragged his nuts across the model landscape.

Obviously some time to go here but that’s a notable shift.

Of course one model run cycle is not a trend so let’s see this for the next 3 cycles and the SE can start pouring the Champagne as it finally scores a board wide snowstorm and I can wear that big ole L on my forehead like I’m sure you all want 😉

Would assume there would be more precip type issues further south but that would be epic for an all snow event from midlands to the coast. Would have NE weenies shaking in their boots. WOOF.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Great googly moogly. The almighty king Canadian just dragged his nuts across the model landscape.

Obviously some time to go here but that’s a notable shift.

Of course one model run cycle is not a trend so let’s see this for the next 3 cycles and the SE can start pouring the Champagne as it finally scores a board wide snowstorm and I can wear that big ole L on my forehead like I’m sure you all want😉

Would assume there would be more precip type issues further south but that would be epic for an all snow event from midlands to the coast. Would have NE weenies shaking in their boots. WOOF.
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Hey I got obliterated on the last system. I’m glad to pass the buck. Hahahaha. I’ll be wrong every time if it means we get snow!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Great googly moogly. The almighty king Canadian just dragged his nuts across the model landscape.

Obviously some time to go here but that’s a notable shift.

Of course one model run cycle is not a trend so let’s see this for the next 3 cycles and the SE can start pouring the Champagne as it finally scores a board wide snowstorm and I can wear that big ole L on my forehead like I’m sure you all want 😉

Would assume there would be more precip type issues further south but that would be epic for an all snow event from midlands to the coast. Would have NE weenies shaking in their boots. WOOF.
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Might not be consistent yet but I’m almost sure this jump is from data assimilation
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
I wouldn’t expect much change NWS wise unless it does this 3-4 straight runs. (I don’t blame them) 24hrs is a Trending


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's A LOT easier for them to up the snow totals in the coming days....OTOH having to walk back a very bullish forecast involving frozen precip that more often than not never comes to fruition....

The public is a lot more forgiving only when the snow totals go up. Going down and they experience the wrath 🤣
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Might not be consistent yet but I’m almost sure this jump is from data assimilation
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Does the Canadian actually get more observations out of Canada vs other models? I would think every model gets all input the same. Certainly interesting info if true to take forward in the future.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Does the Canadian actually get more observations out of Canada vs other models? I would think every model gets all input the same. Certainly interesting info if true to take forward in the future.
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All of the models assimilate observation data differently. Canada has more access to Canadian data and has a data assimilation system that is more fine-tuned for Canada. Most Canadian mets consider the canadian suite of models to be superior to even the ECMWF up there for these reasons.

For those that do not know, data assimilation is the process of turning sparse observations, satellite, radar, etc into gridded initial conditions.
 
bouncycorn said:
All of the models assimilate observation data differently. Canada has more access to Canadian data and has a data assimilation system that is more fine-tuned for Canada. Most Canadian mets consider the canadian suite of models to be superior to even the ECMWF up there for these reasons.

For those that do not know, data assimilation is the process of turning sparse observations, satellite, radar, etc into gridded initial conditions.
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I've actually attended modeling conferences where reps from CMC have spoken. They take their modeling seriously and while it may have some issues down here, they put a lot of research and money into improving it.
 
1300m said:
I've actually attended modeling conferences where reps from CMC have spoken. They take their modeling seriously and while it may have some issues down here, they put a lot of research and money into improving it.
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Certainly noticed of recent years that it’s taken strides. Certainly unlike the GFS .. who is clearly having trouble right now (and honestly the euro was on the gfs bandwagon until tonight’s runs so it’s not too hot either but certainly better)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah color me totally unsurprised that the EPS just did this.

Overrunning events forced by warm advection aloft rarely trend to suppression inside the medium range.
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Nice call Webb. This event looks very much like Jan 28 2014 which had an intense NW trend inside of 72 hours.
 
Here's a question to ponder -- Why are the AI models also doing this NW-trend-bias thing? Does this indicate that it's an issue with our data assimilation somewhere? Previously thought it was model physics, but with AI models also doing this, it raises some big questions about the nature of this bias..

I mean, I guess there is still some physics involved with using ERA5 as ground truth in training.. but wouldn't imagine that it'd cause biases so similar to conventional NWP biases.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah color me totally unsurprised that the EPS just did this.

Overrunning events forced by warm advection aloft rarely trend to suppression inside the medium range.
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Love to give credit when earned!
You wasn't that popular in this thread a few years back calling winter over early on.
Us weenies hated it.
I refused to punt that early,
You were right !
You begin to honk the horn on this setup back in Nov early Dec.

Once again you were right.
Lastly on this setup.
You called it when the only model really showing it was the CMC.
You clearly have a crystal ball that's given you a lead on everyone else.
In all seriousness,
Great freaking job.
I don't expect you nor anyone else to be right every single time but dude you are the epitome of professional.
Keep reading the tea leaves or that crystal ball !
👀
Kudos to you kind sir!
 
We were already looking a pretty rare cold event. 72-96 hours straight below freezing for a good chunk of the forum? Now looking at potentially significant snowfall over a large portion if trends hold/continue?

Could be a historic week my friends
 
This is the grids for New Orleans....

Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tuesday
Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This system looks more amped and NW at this point than Jan 2014 and also has more cold air to work with
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With the comparisons to 2014, it begs to question what may happen along the I-10 corridor in NW FL? If theres more cold air to work with, do you think less ice and more snow than 2014, or will the low track too close and we get ice and little snow? Just curious, its obvious we dont do winter weather down this far south very much so I am not well versed with any of this.
 
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