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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
And those are 10/1 ratio. Y’all, this may inch it’s way back to the apocalyptic CMC run of the other day.
I would like to note, this map says "maximum probability" not the probability. I would also like to note that this was being drafted up and released before the EPS came in for the time-frame.
They were sitting, waiting like we were, for the Canadian to fold or get support.
Something is getting ingested into the models because even the hrrr is funneling the energy further west vs earlier runs along with that energy above the Dakotas further west 
This is still shocking me looking at it more 
Avalanche
Member
You’d think we’d have to go full on negative tilt and introduce the Atlantic to get these kinds of totals in the Carolinas.
Where can you find this at?
Pretty amazing how small embedded lobes/energy within the vortex can make or break this one
I have slower maps, but at this rate, it's going to neutral tilt or something. Very nice to see.
Yup. Nam going for it all 
Six Mile Wx
Member
Looks to be phasing and tilting less positive. Definitely not a sheared and strung out mess!
John1122
Member
The NAM managed to be that far north with a ridiculous and no doubt much stronger than it will verify 1064mb H over Colorado.
Snowlover34
Member
So is there still a chance for us Tennessee valley folks to be in the game???
Can’t wait for the icon to sh*t on this storm at 06z, but let’s see what it does
I just woke up to check things and holy crap. This is the eps for Bessemer which is just south of BHM and then Montgomery. Buckle up baby. It’s go time.
John1122
Member
Precip shields are almost always further north than modeled. I don't particularly trust the NAM but the Tennessee Valley was likely to get in on the action if that run had continued 12 more hours.
SegTindoPro
Member
Yes, since I’m in such a good mood right now and it’s 3 AM but this is it.
SegTindoPro
Member
Cool live nearby in Henry county so I know what to expect
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Welp icon has the northern stream into the Dakotas now. Gonna be a better run for sure
Big time Westward jump vs just it's previous run not long ago. Very interesting.
I'd like to note, that if it still holds true, the GFS has had a history of being too fast with the Northern Stream. If that is still the case, it may take a little while for it to correct with it. In other words 06z might not be amazing changes, but don't fret.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That’s straight up solid for Dothan, wow what a chart
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I’m unfortunately staying up for the 06z runs. Can’t sleep after what I’ve seen. But yep big jog west with the H5 vort and snow footprint
SegTindoPro
Member
There’s little saying under a inch which is crazy that more are saying over than under
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yep, there’s several over 1 inch, I’d def take the over right now.
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Looks like the rgem took a little step back but nothing overly concerning. Still looks great at the end. Although the pac S/W was more strung
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just look at the big NW shift and stronger with energy it did just on this run for the weekend event in the NE. Unreal
SegTindoPro
Member
GSP has now added 50% chance of SN for my area Tues night with a low of 16
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Hrs 67-84 6z RGEM, nice look there with a winter storm gathering in TX about to march NE at the end.
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