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Wintry January 21-23 2025

What the GFS/Euro are showing at 500mb is fine for this storm.

We just need to trend from 1/10th of liquid up to 2 or 3/10ths. Then we go from a 1-2 inch snow to a 3-5 inch snow storm.

As has been discussed in here, that's definitely a realistic outcome/possiblity.

The euro specifically was way too dry in this time range for our last storm, even though it had the 5h evolution pretty close to what happened. It was showing .3 inch liquid totals for the upstate and we verified in the .6-.8 range.
 
One thing we need to be careful with is the Baja low trying to get swept into the SW. if it consolidates it’ll stretch out the southern stream like the gfs shows
 
What the GFS/Euro are showing at 500mb is fine for this storm.

We just need to trend from 1/10th of liquid up to 2 or 3/10ths. Then we go from a 1-2 inch snow to a 3-5 inch snow storm.

As has been discussed in here, that's definitely a realistic outcome/possiblity.

The euro specifically was way too dry in this time range for our last storm, even though it had the 5h evolution pretty close to what happened. It was showing .3 inch liquid totals for the upstate and we verified in the .6-.8 range.

Definitely...the Euro was too light with precip, it was showing RDU with .2-.3 and RDU got .5". I think all of us would take the Euro showing .2-.3" of precip for this potential. Currently thats the 95 corridor so that makes sense that and places east could over-perform.

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The SE trend on the GEFS...but the CFS/NAVGEM look great still and those been very consistent.

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I feel like it’s settling in but getting ready to start with the northwest trend starting around 12z tomorrow if history repeats itself. Blending everything together right now isn’t a bad idea. The 6z euro looks pretty reasonable too. A couple of inches along the I-85 corridor in NC is still a decent possibility. The euro has a recent history of being too dry, and I’m curious about the overrunning warm advection giving a boost. It will interesting to track for sure.
 
Kylo, you must have totally missed the monster 00z eps that was a complete cave to the CMC and its ensembles.

We will see who ends up right.
Oh...the Euro had a monster run at 0z? Just waking up and looking at the latest 6z runs. This looks pretty good...but with the CMC trending worse, we will see.


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Look at how awful the EPS was 96hrs before the event in Northern Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio.

Basically the entire area on the north side of the precip shield that was progged to get .5-1.5 of snow, actually got 3-6 inches of snow.

Also, the Ark/La/Tex region shows why you don't want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. That 6.7 inch max on this mean verified as a dusting of slop.

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A lot of us are on the northern fringe of a most likely under modeled qpf field and that doesn’t factor in any NW trend whatsoever in the next 72-84 hours. Nam has snow rolling in at noon Tuesday with temps in the 20s. If we get .3 qpf then I see 4-6 easy. History tells us what will happen and Webber mentions all of this stuff above this morning.

Many are sitting on the edge of what may be a 1-2 inch event or a much larger event. Either one will have significant impacts with the temperatures and I think many will be happy with the end result.
 
This is insane... and still trending stronger/further west on the last run. This animation starts at 96hrs out, which is about where we are with our storm this morning. Just goes to show you a lot of things can change.

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Bunch of us haven’t shut up last two storms about “tilt” and “trough orientation” and what not and why these little shifts and adjustments have big impacts. Well this is why
 
For those holding out hope for the CMC...it has been very stubborn for the event starting tomorrow in the MA/NE. It has snow edge just north of the major cities...DC-PHL-NYC-BOS. Where Euro/GFS doesn't. Posting this to see if we end up getting the same model madness...and can point to see who won. The general consensus in twitter land is the CMC will fold.

trend-ecmwf_full-2025011800-f060.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.giftrend-gdps-2025011800-f060.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.gif
 
This is insane... and still trending stronger/further west on the last run. This animation starts at 96hrs out, which is about where we are with our storm this morning. Just goes to show you a lot of things can change.

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And the CMC hasn't budged in days...it's been all over that event.

trend-gdps-2025011800-f060.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne (1).gif
 
Whew, the Euro AI doesn’t look to get any precip to NC, even at the coast. That has to be concerning.
Bill simmons voice: are we sure the euro ai is good?

Not discounting it but I am hesitant to make it the “gold standard” as we aren’t as familiar with how it can be used as a forecasting tool
 
There's not much support in the ensembles for big NW shifts. There aren't any members with the low tracking onshore and up the coast. The models have been fairly consistent with the ENE exit and snow footprint for a few days.

Doesn't mean it can't pull the rug but the ensembles haven't hinted at that big of a NW threat YET
 
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Winter storm watch posted for the southern half of LA, extreme eastern TX, and extreme southern MS


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This absolutely terrible....theyre gonna have to walk this back. WAAAAY too aggressive for that area, its a sensitive area bc of historical reasons and id make dang sure before I put this out.
 
Bill simmons voice: are we sure the euro ai is good?

Not discounting it but I am hesitant to make it the “gold standard” as we aren’t as familiar with how it can be used as a forecasting tool
I feel like after its performance with the Plains to Mid-Atlantic storm a couple weeks ago and last weeks storm, everyone has given the EURO AI more weight. The important thing to remember is that with both of those storms it locked in on the H5 pattern 5-6 days out. This time is waffling all over the place at H5. Now I’m not saying that the CMC is gonna be dead on right with this storm as I believe we most likely end up with more of a blend as we seeing other models step towards it at H5 and it step towards other models. However and I pointed this out yesterday, the CMC has a solid history of doing really well with southeast winter storms when you have in place a true Arctic air mass out ahead of a storm.
 
For those holding out hope for the CMC...it has been very stubborn for the event starting tomorrow in the MA/NE. It has snow edge just north of the major cities...DC-PHL-NYC-BOS. Where Euro/GFS doesn't. Posting this to see if we end up getting the same model madness...and can point to see who won. The general consensus in twitter land is the CMC will fold.

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The euro right there took cape cod from 3-5 inches to 0 in three runs…
 
Eh, I’d say the winter storm watch is a tad early, but not a terrible idea for the areas posted.

I mean, snow deep in LA and deep in TX is very rare at least typically. It’d make sense that they’d need to be alerted and I’d have more confidence there than to the east for the time being.

Heck, I would say it won’t make sense for watches here until late Sunday at the earliest, but when I pulled up Facebook, I’m seeing chat by someone about snow plows and salt trucks (and telling people to give them room as there was some reckless driving near them on the 10th).
 
This absolutely terrible....theyre gonna have to walk this back. WAAAAY too aggressive for that area, its a sensitive area bc of historical reasons and id make dang sure before I put this out.
I don’t see an issue with them issuing a Winter Storm Watch as they are within 72 hours of the start of the event with fairly good model consensus for that area. I’m not so sure about coming out of the gate with forecasting 4-8” of accumulation, especially in a part of the country where 2” is warning criteria
 
I don’t see an issue with them issuing a Winter Storm Watch as they are within 72 hours of the start of the event with fairly good model consensus for that area. I’m not so sure about coming out of the gate with forecasting 4-8” of accumulation, especially in a part of the country where 2” is warning criteria
On the other hand, nobody knows more about overpromise/undeliver than a Wolfpack fan .... ;-)
 
Notice here on the NAM that your mid level warm advection and frontogen intersects the DGZ nearly into Virginia. Once we moisten the column, the precip shield will have no problem expanding north to its hearts content. Highly doubt we suppression here unless the synoptic pattern changes a lot

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Thanks Webb i have faith now!!! Appreciate your analysis and im sure i speak for many!!!
 
Eh, I’d say the winter storm watch is a tad early, but not a terrible idea for the areas posted.

I mean, snow deep in LA and deep in TX is very rare at least typically. It’d make sense that they’d need to be alerted and I’d have more confidence there than to the east for the time being.

Heck, I would say it won’t make sense for watches here until late Sunday at the earliest, but when I pulled up Facebook, I’m seeing chat by someone about snow plows and salt trucks (and telling people to give them room as there was some reckless driving near them on the 10th).
Yeah, I was a little surprised to wake up to the watch this morning from the New Orleans NWS office. I thought watches, like with tropical systems, were usually 48 hours in advance of the inclement weather. I think a lot of it is for messaging. It also shows the confidence in the accumulating snowfall panning out. The ensembles have been consistent at highlighting the heaviest swath of snow along southern and central Louisiana. State offices and many area schools are closed for Tuesday for the storm.
 
The EPS snow mean is so mis-leading....so many whiffs but so many big dogs.

There is 18-20 whiffs or almost whiffs. So if this can trend to an event and the whiffs get eliminated the snow mean would triple. But on the other hand there is a 40% chance of no event.


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My NWS is calling for 4-8" for my area??? I'm so excited! Last time I saw that much snow was December 2008 when we had the ULL do a surprise snowstorm on us when forecasters had been calling for just a mix. I got 6" from that storm. But to think this snow might stick around for a few days with how cold things will be next week. It just feels surreal.
 
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