What a heartbreak the NAM would be for my old hometown of New Orleans. Warm nose warning signs already going off for our Gulf Coast weenies. I'm pulling for the Canadian coast to Tennessee Valey monster.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
In our area, it was a major error. It was an outlier, did poorly.
SegTindoPro
Member
Wondering if that snow is gonna drop down south on the NAM
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I like to see those isobars continue to weaken with every run. The cold isn’t colding to the degree it was supposed to. Shocker. If we can continue to weaken it there’s less our low has to bend around. Amp it up and get one of those EPS bomb solutions from last night 
ChattaVOL
Member
iGRXY
Member
rburrel2
Member
Here was the 81hr NAM for our last event... It sorta nailed it compared to the globals back in Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma. Was also very close to reality for the transition lines.
That's the area I am talking about. The Nam pushed the low up the Alabama Mississippi line and showed freezing rain way north into Tennessee.
The NAM looks good. We just need this to stop (or hold). Can’t have this keep trending flatter. Areas farther south are fine with flatter of course
The NAM would have a large area of sleet and freezing rain on the southern flank. Maybe some onset snow followed by a little light snow on the backside close to coastal areas.
Exactly. And look at how the NAM trended with this event in the northeast.
There was no big major change at H5 either.
NAM appeared to be taking the axis of heaviest precip straight up I-20. Columbia boys cooking
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Cooking with sleet if not careful. That WAA is legit
Truly wish the AI models could just hop on board. And we could get a consensus to a sharper/slower NS wave out west. Number one thing to look for today
For now until us I85 guys do the eating.
Remember when the NAM was north with last weeks storm early on and everyone laughed at it
Just a word of caution to those in southern LA, MS, AL… don’t discount the NAM on that warm nose it’s showing for those areas, even at this range. A lot of have seen too many times what looked to be a solid 4-6” snowfall turn into primarily ZR or sleet with the NAM picking up on that warm nose first. If it continues to show that then the New Orleans NWS office will likely have to start seriously backing off on snowfall accumulations
Snowflowxxl
Member
LR NAM is the gold standard on Atlanta snow. We move…
Yeah the CMC suite was on the extreme end of the modeling suite with the phasing. It ticked a little back on the 6z run
NCSNOW
Member
The Nam at the surface looks just like what I think we are going to see. That tilt, angle will deliver FGEN. I also want the surface low to exit Florida more toward Jax as opposed to just south of Daytona. A little 25- 50 futher north bump there combined with the more pronounced se-nw angle FGEN will put mby solidily in .25-.5 qpf range. Good ratios and we can make a run at a 6+ event. Why eat a hamburger steak when you can have prime rib.
Talk about a great overrunning event as shown here going forward. Of course normal end of NAM disco apples here.
Looks like the icon out to only a day and a half is major improvement regarding the N/S
A tale of two mechanisms with our southern winter storm upcoming:
The overall trough structure is pretty lack-luster given the positive tilt. Now with that said it digging as far south as it is will help to create lift out ahead of it.
Now here is the fun part. This baroclinic instability zone will be pretty off the charts compared to a usual winter storm. Brutal arctic air lining up next to an anomalously warm Gulf is a recipe for lift.
Now if you give the trough some time to tilt more negative by the time it hits the Carolinas. That could make things really interesting for areas in the eastern zone of the baroloclinic instability.
NoSnowATL
Member
For the 3 Fla posters on here we want the Low in Orlando not Jacksonville. Something to watch.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't know how well the AI models handle situations like this yet. We're in a different ballpark playing a similar game. It looked almost to me like the AI Euro was flakier this time earlier on than the first system.
jetstream30
Member
I’ll take the Prime Rib in the NC Foothills NCSnow. Hope the NAM is accurate!
Something I am interested in seeing though and the CMC could have been doing it already, if the slightly worser H5 trend is being counteracted by the mostly predictable short range increase in QPF from stronger WAA. If this is the case, the CMC may look worse up top, but deliver the same goods.
beanskip
Member
Yeah really strong southwest dig compared to 6z.
EDIT: But by 60 hours the n/s has fallen behind the 6z.
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Birmingham and ATL. Heavy snow on the NAM with temps in the upper teens/low 20’s. Something to pray for at church tomorrow haha
I'd be concerned with severe weather if I had only this plot for information.
Philstorm91
Member
Yeah, despite all other models showing snow for my area, and plenty of it, I know it's also easy to fail and get sleet instead of snow with these storms. So I can't ignore the NAM totally. I just hope the snow line is exaggerated somewhat, since I live just north of Baton Rouge, near the MS state line. Aren't the best rates usually near the mix line?
They will very soon
Tarheelwx
Member
For those that don't want sleet, just remember that it takes 2-3 times longer to melt sleet laying on the ground than snow. Personally, I like a few inches of snow and then a hammering of sleet. Awesome sledding and it lasts a very long time unless you have a big warmup.
TW
TW
15:1 ratios are extremely possible.
iGRXY
Member
RGEM looks improved early on
SegTindoPro
Member
What do you mean? Are you saying it’s gonna stay north or move south?
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You can’t always bet on the long range NAM track but more often than not the Ptypes get worse the closer you get. That’s normally how it works here at least
Makeitsnow
Member
Yes it's for entertainment purposes only but man the nam solution would be a dream come true for the i 20 to i85 crowd. Temps in the low 20s...850s of -9 to -11...producing rations of 15 to 17 to in the 85 corridor
