weather bubba
Member
I'll take that and cash in my chips please! I wonder which models the NWS uses for their blend?
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yep that’s the frustrating part RC is that this is so close. The I85 and south group just don’t get many opportunities with this kind of cold air out front
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Wow…. I haven’t seen a graphic like that for Piedmont NC in 5-6yrs …. But yet Northern LA
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I think it’s Southern LAWow…. I haven’t seen a graphic like that for Piedmont NC in 5-6yrs …. But yet Northern LA
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weather bubba
Member
If the northern stream of energy would just slow down a bit so the southern energy would catch up we would be watching a bomb go off over the Deep South and the Southeast coast. I wish the southern low were just a bit further north so there would be a chance for interaction if the northern energy would slow down.
Think you will be fine with temperatures for snow there, but just have to see how much precipitation can work in
Philstorm91
Member
I'm rooting for the RGEM/CMC. I just don't want to give up on my snow hope on account of the NAM, which stands practically alone against the other models. Also sometimes the NAM has overdone WAA for severe weather events around here. But it's a reliable short range model, so I can't completely shake it.
EastmanGAWX
Member
NWS TAL just issued this graphic, this is absolutely an image that normally appears possibly twice per decade at the maximum.
As much as I would love for the NAM to be right for my area, since it wants to phase and truly overamp, I wouldn’t worry too much about it if I were you.
Now if it was just farther NW, I would be concerned.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ive seen a lot of comments on this already floating around, but I wouldn’t dig too much into things like ratios with this storm just yet.
A lot of other things besides temperatures dictate snow liquid ratios. Many folks may also have to contend with sleet.
A lot of other things besides temperatures dictate snow liquid ratios. Many folks may also have to contend with sleet.
Gfs
Look at the northern stream difference between the gfs/nam and the rgem.
Forevertothee
Member
First, appreciate all that you contribute to the forum, Webb. Any idea when you might put out your first call map?
Snowgirl67
Member
I’m so confused! Is it looking better or worse for the Atl?
tractor girl
Member
NAMming imminent?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gonna need to let this play out for another day or two. Still a few things synoptically that need to be ironed out. Perhaps by Monday
tractor girl
Member
Yes.
yeah the GFS looks like a crap salad at H5
GFS end result at sfc is roughly the same for nc but won't take many more bad H5 trends to wipe it out
EastmanGAWX
Member
NWS TAL ZR accumulation chances
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Key is what happens when our diving energy and that pacific ULL do. If they stay separate and trend that way, we will see more of an amped solution and more inland moisture. If they touch it's a touch of death and we will see no snow north of 20.
Reminder the gfs trends from 84hr for the northeast storm, not sure why people are cliff diving based on it
Yeah just like it wouldn't take too many bad trends to lose this one almost entirely, it wouldn't take too many good ones to get ppl in the game. I just don't think you can fully punt until monday or so
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The classic case of western trough digging faster upstream in the presence of a brutally cold Siberian air mass.
iGRXY
Member
CMC coming back to earth at H5
I really think that stupid bowling ball near the west coast is starting to have a dragging effect on our shortwave. GFS leaves a skid mark whereas the 6z Euro had little to no interaction 
CMC looking good again
iGRXY
Member
With that said, this still isn’t a bad look to help drive overrunning
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian still looking good. Anxious to see euro.
Gfs tries to sleet an snow again thurs night eastern nc, whipped up another low
Gfs tries to sleet an snow again thurs night eastern nc, whipped up another low
Forevertothee
Member
Agree, while a Big Dog would be so awesome, most of us are so snow starved that an overrunning event of even 1-2 inches is a win. Especially for us S of 85 that had no snow accumulation from the 10th event.
Canadian been putting out a billion different H5 looks like we've been saying. Think the cold bias is probably overdoing the overrunning. Pretty big SE jump on the LP center on the CMC as well
beanskip
Member
CMC easing back a bit but also take note that it's slowing down as well and that even half a Canadian equals a really nice storm.
As said, the AI was and is a big red flag
snowlover91
Member
Changes so far on the 12z cycle aren't good. CMC is less amped, GFS much worse, ICON about the same. Still time for things to change the other direction but it is going to be harder to get that to happen since the key pieces are only 48 hours out from interaction with one another.