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Wintry January 21-23 2025

While not to be completely discounted.. the NAM and RGEM at their longest range are certainly no god to gospel.

There’s not many times I’ve seen their long range outputs match up completely to reality. Once you get around 60 hours I’d pay more attention.
 
snowlover91 said:
Changes so far on the 12z cycle aren't good. CMC is less amped, GFS much worse, ICON about the same. Still time for things to change the other direction but it is going to be harder to get that to happen since the key pieces are only 48 hours out from interaction with one another.
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Alternate view: We are still 2-4 more model trends away from knowing what's going to happen.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Canadian been putting out a billion different H5 looks like we've been saying. Think the cold bias is probably overdoing the overrunning. Pretty big SE jump on the LP center on the CMC as well
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This may be its Achilles heel that’s been leading it astray. Certainly not good trends for the inland folks so far. I think the coast will get it regardless. Would be interesting to see the CMCE though.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
CMC seems similar to last night's Euro.

Many would take that and run, but it seems like strung out mess and nothing is now very much back on the table.
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It was never off, too many of the ensemble members had looks like some of the 12z ops (or worse).

Just like better solutions are also still on the table.
 
Not too concerned about model outputs from a single run, however the trends are becoming a little clearer that this is still a Eastern NC storm and a mess on the gulf coast with ice. Don't really see much of a northward trend and we are not likely too at this point as the trend is going the opposite way. Placement of the low far into the gulf pretty much eliminates too much interaction with the Northern stream (except for the NAM at extreme range) and giving more overrunning potential.
 
From a historical perspective, the CMC snow foot print depicted is very similar to a smaller scale February 1895 Valentine's Day Storm. Louisiana got absolutely pounded, but snow still fell throughout Southern Georgia at a lower levels that what had transpired to the SW. Albany, GA recorded it's maximum historical snowfall of 5 inches during that 1895 storm.
 
I’m curious if anyone remembers what the models were doing leading up to Jan 2014 overrunning event that over performed in N GA and if there are similarities here in what we’re seeing?
 
Lot of people here are confident that we’ve locked into a solution 3.5 days out? It’s weather. Nobody really knows how this shakes out. We may have a rough idea but I promise you there are still some last minute surprises and swings to go. This hobby wouldn’t be fun if models were dead on every time from 72-96 hours.

I like it when people make a prediction and provide the info on what caused them to get to that. But talking in absolutes at this range will make you look silly.

Let’s just enjoy we have a chance at a warning criteria event for much of the forum. Even if things need to go our way over the next couple of days…
 
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I’m pretty sure I can make the call that anyone in this region will not get a NW trend significant enough to get some snow from this event. Just too dry! Hoping this can get better in short range for y’all down there!
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ok …. This is hilarious now he’s on board. I said “He” not the name Mods. But why does this board always go opposite of what actual Mets say ? Like I’ve rarely ever seen us weiners and pros off or on anything at same time


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He still seems confident it’ll be a coastal track though
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ok …. This is hilarious now he’s on board. I said “He” not the name Mods. But why does this board always go opposite of what actual Mets say ? Like I’ve rarely ever seen us weiners and pros off or on anything at same time


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He’s probably basing this off 00z trends. We are just now getting the garbage juice 12z runs
 
rburrel2 said:
Also, not shockingly, the 00z NAM was a good bit weaker with the cold press before the storm. Heights are higher across the board in the Southeast. That's definitely not hurting our chances. Though that is cause for concern along the beaches with mixing issues.
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Catfish said:
I’m curious if anyone remembers what the models were doing leading up to Jan 2014 overrunning event that over performed in N GA and if there are similarities here in what we’re seeing?
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Models were terrible as I recall...All kept everything south along the coast...The only model to "nail it" was the RAP, which everyone laughed at and ignored. The rest is snowmageddon history.
 
Catfish said:
I’m curious if anyone remembers what the models were doing leading up to Jan 2014 overrunning event that over performed in N GA and if there are similarities here in what we’re seeing?
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Don’t have the models but I knew this 11 year old screenshot would come in handy but this was the NWS Bham forecast 48 hours out from the storm

image2.gif
 
WxJoe said:
Models were terrible as I recall...All kept everything south along the coast...The only model to "nail it" was the RAP, which everyone laughed at and ignored. The rest is snowmageddon history.
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The sref actually was pretty good too! The educated thought was the air was too dry and it would evaporate before hitting the ground.
 
Snowfan said:
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Mentioned to a friend last night the need to pay attention (like me, he’s an hour north of downtown). His response: “but if we get anything, it will be a low amount.” I feel a lot of people have this mindset as they set off into their holiday weekend (when weather attention is even more sparse amongst people who don’t follow this stuff).

This setup - much like 1982 and 2014, as Keith points out in his excellent thread - is different from a minimal amount of wet snow on the heels of 55° weather. It’s why I feel the metro area is on a razor’s edge with this storm: is it a nothing-burger, or a significant impactful event?

It very well may come down to nowcasting.

—30—
 
IMG_5467.jpeg
As per my written thoughts the past week I figured I’d make an ugly (emphasis on ugly since I was using my fat fingers) map as well.

Teal: dusting to 2 inches
Blue: best shot at 2-4 inches
Red: ice issues could mess with snow totals still messy travel regardless
Pink: best shots at the sweet spots of the storm with > 2-4 inches possible

*rough idea*
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ok …. This is hilarious now he’s on board. I said “He” not the name Mods. But why does this board always go opposite of what actual Mets say ? Like I’ve rarely ever seen us weiners and pros off or on anything at same time


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I hate on him as much as anybody but when you’re in a fast court break and need someone to break the backboard you’re gonna want him to draw those white shades over your house. He doesn’t miss
 
I can remember in 2001 here in huntsville seeing it snow at Alabama vs Iowa State game in Shrevport. Thinking surely Huntsville will get something. Wasn't forecasted for much at all in huntsville. It snowed hard and fast! Never will forget. Was senior in High School New years day. Rates were impressive. Only an inch but it came down! Similar situation

DayHigh (°F)Low (°F)Precip. (inches)Snow (inches)
January 125170.051.0
 
Biggest thing you can do is see if the Cams are in the same stratosphere as the globals at H5. If they are then you put much more faith in the surface and low/midlevel synoptics of the cams vs the globals. It’s literally what they were designed to do. If we start getting big deviations at the overall H5 look, then that’s when you start pausing a bit more. So far the Cams are not far off at H5 vs any of the globals. Just my 2 cents
 
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