Wondering what actually caused this jump. Did any guidance get way better lol
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Twister
Member
Your teal line is that dusting to 2" South of the Teal Line or what about North of that line?
RollTide18
Member
I was visiting my mom in Huntsville at the time and there was big traffic jam on the way back to Greenville
RollTide18
Member
Sctvman
Member
weather bubba
Member
The rollercoaster ride continues. The NAM is showing promise, the CMC is drier and slightly worse, the GEFS is much worse for most of us and the UKMET was a horrible run for winter weather lovers. We will see if the roller coaster goes back up when the GFS and Euro make their next runs. I'm hoping for a situation like the NWS blend of models and the Weather Channel maps showed this morning but there are so many elements in play and the timing must be just right for most of us to get winter weather.
I love this but where exactly does it come from? The only model showing 3 inches over Charlotte that's in range is what the CMC? The latest GFS and 6Z Euro sure doesn't. And the Icon and UKIE are complete whiffs. You'd think if you averaged all models together and their ensembles you get less than an inch in Charlotte.
NCWeatherGeek
Member
Isn't this suite usually behind recent model runs? I remember seeing that somewhere before but I could be wrong.
That was my thought is it’s related to the general 0z jump and will probably back off with its next update
I don't know. There are a lot of smart people in here. If anyone can comment on how the NBM work, that would be awesome. It would be easy to assume it's driven off all the models, but i really don't know. I know that if you read NWS discussions, they definitely mention the NBM. I have always wondered if jumped are a precursor to the next set of runs coming up.
thanksgivingbrown
Member
It didn’t snow during that game. I believe you’re thinking of the year before December 31 2000. Texas Am vs Miss st.
If that is the case, that sucks. That's pretty stupid that it would have a lag like that.
I don't know because the 12Z wasn't that good. If it was based on 0Z it should have been relected by 12Z I would think
Philstorm91
Member
February 1895 would be epic over here. And given the strength of the Arctic airmass and favorable dynamics for the storm being modeled, maybe it's not out of the realm of possibility some of us in southern Louisiana could push up to a foot of snowfall!
I don’t know that for a fact. I just don’t know why else it’d jump like this
all the 12z models aren't done yet I'm guessing is why
A dose of hopium. WPC raised probabilities
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Agree…. I could see maybe back to a line from Lancaster - Monroe - Albemarle - Lexington being the western line though as far as 1-3” margins maybe some Dusting-2” lollipops back to 321/77
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At hour 84, the NBM starts to weigh SREF-ARW members. It also weighs the 00z EPS members heavily.
NCSNOW
Member
I went to bed all giddy up after last night euro. Today after all 12z, its been a deflator. Waiting to see 12z euro and if it can get in bed with the nam. Old EE rule. Work the overunner aspect.
Im sick to the stomach to miss that phase. Rare opportunity with this airmass lyeing in wait. But life an wx go on.
Id be estatic to net a 1-3 incher now. Thats the ceiling/ reality back over here.
Im sick to the stomach to miss that phase. Rare opportunity with this airmass lyeing in wait. But life an wx go on.
Id be estatic to net a 1-3 incher now. Thats the ceiling/ reality back over here.
a_gilmore88
Member
By no means an expert, but wondering if NBM takes into account increased ratios when the majority of model outputs default to 10:1?
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I don't envy the forecasters on the northern fringes of this. Damned if you do damned if you don't.
JMB
Member
Ii
they must not have consulted with KyloG
Bah humbug.
JQPublic
Member
Jan 2000 too in Raleigh.
History tends to repeat itself...
- forecasted QPF map from the WPC for Snowmageddon 2014 at T minus 2 days.
- snowfall verification map.
Euro is further North so far back in the Western Deep South with snow foot print.
iGRXY
Member
H5 for the euro looks better thru 63
beanskip
Member
12z Euro showing more digging to the southwest by both pieces of energy.
iGRXY
Member
So the euro definitely didn’t get worse from what I can see on the phone in between red lights. Might’ve gotten a smidge better
It looks like the key difference is the sharp cut off to the North. It definitely bumped North out West but didn't respond exactly the same further East
And the Euro delivers. Hell, if you live as far north as Cullman, you’re licking your chops at that footprint. Especially considering the euros lack of qpf at times. Beautiful run!
We just needed Kylo out for a bit.
We just needed Kylo out for a bit.
astroworld123
Member
Need that NW on this and its perfect
Snow_chaser
Member
Looks like I-20 South in Georgia
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well, make it three straight Euro runs that I think many would be happy with.
Maybe I'm a bit sleep deprived, but I do think at H5 that it trends a SMIDGE closer than 0z to interacting with that dumb ULL, which seems like it might be stringing things out.
Maybe I'm a bit sleep deprived, but I do think at H5 that it trends a SMIDGE closer than 0z to interacting with that dumb ULL, which seems like it might be stringing things out.
Euro 5 run trend. If no one in here saw the 0z last night we’d be excited about this
If overrunning can overperform some of the current modeling that 6z scenario is more likely, I think it just took that more out of the equation with this run