BKWRN29
Member
I think this thing will trend NW as we get closer! It reminds me so much of Dec 2017 for my area.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
albertwilsonjr
Member
I think this is pretty accurate
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Posting the Tweet/X to give credit to Mitch:
I'm hoping that the idea of no ULL interaction is more credible since it seems like that little ULL can't actually be scooped up. The runs that have had more and more interaction are a mess.
I'm hoping that the idea of no ULL interaction is more credible since it seems like that little ULL can't actually be scooped up. The runs that have had more and more interaction are a mess.
Im surprised there hasn’t been more talk about ratios being higher for this system on the northern edge. It won’t take much qpf to lay down a couple inches which was part of the huge mistake Mets made in 2014
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
broken025
Member
Euro also has this on Friday. GFS has had it on and off as well.
rburrel2
Member
Seems like an issue with the light qpf in foothills/piedmont of NC is from the amount of low level dry air that has to be overcome. Dew points are a little higher back towards the upstate and N. GA. and I think that's the only difference between it showing .05-.1 and .01-.03.
I still think that qpf is being underdone, assuming the synoptics stay the same. Those fingers of precip streaking out ahead pretty much always over perform, and the jet dynamics aiding in that finger will be really good.
.2 or .3 of liquid is attainable of N. GA, UpstateSC, and Western/Central NC from that, even if we just simply hold the consensus/blend of (gfs,euro,nam/cmc) at 5h with no additional improvements.
And I personally think we're probably pretty locked in at 5h and it's going to be roughly what the 12z euro is showing.
But i'll still optimistically hope we trend a little more amped/connected to the southern wave like the NAM, and also skeptically worry we will trend to less northern stream digging. Fun times ahead!
I still think that qpf is being underdone, assuming the synoptics stay the same. Those fingers of precip streaking out ahead pretty much always over perform, and the jet dynamics aiding in that finger will be really good.
.2 or .3 of liquid is attainable of N. GA, UpstateSC, and Western/Central NC from that, even if we just simply hold the consensus/blend of (gfs,euro,nam/cmc) at 5h with no additional improvements.
And I personally think we're probably pretty locked in at 5h and it's going to be roughly what the 12z euro is showing.
But i'll still optimistically hope we trend a little more amped/connected to the southern wave like the NAM, and also skeptically worry we will trend to less northern stream digging. Fun times ahead!
SimeonNC
Member
I don't think there will be too much of traditional "NW Trend", more like there will simply be more precip on the NW side and more precip in general. This could easily be one of those events where most of NC gets a light while somewhere in the coastal plain gets absolutely crushed
That conversation will come when they start in with precip amounts and placement
Makeitsnow
Member
It's still noteworthy how much warmer the gfs is across the southeast than virtually all other guidance.. as an example...it has it getting to 40!! here tue while all other guidance is subfreezing with the exception of the uk which is low to mid 30s. Indeed its 4 or 5c warmer in the low levels vs other guidance. Here is the gfs compared to the euro for comparison
MichaelJ
Member
For the folks in the gulf coast, this is not a storm for a decade, or a lifetime, it is a once in a century event, how exciting for you guys!
rain on the northwest edge? Must be rate driven stuff
albertwilsonjr
Member
What kind of totals would this equate to for upstate
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I guess it just depends on how early the precip comes in on Tuesday ?
broken025
Member
Posts like these are not gonna age well. There’s always a NW trend no matter what. You better believe it will be showing in the models probably tomorrow.
BKWRN29
Member
I don’t think there will be a drastic change to the path but I think there will be a slight NW trend, totals will increase north and likely decrease south or mixed precip to the south.
The modeling is honing in on a weaker cold push. While I think we will see some low placement adjustments, to an extent, we will be dealing with a situation where it actually can't go but so far North on it's actual track. If there's a low at all, honestly.
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
- Messages
- 1,198
- Reaction score
- 3,157
I gotta agree with sim that it's gonna just be more of an extended precip field than the low trending more nw and more amped. But it's not totally out of the equation
rburrel2
Member
It's also interesting that while the CMCE did cut down on totals a bit... it kept the axis of heavy accumulations unchanged... and that axis is a good bit north of other guidance. I suspect the lowering maxima's is just because it's dropping the foot plus members for more realistic stuff. A 3-5 inch mean is still incredibly high for a mean at 3-4 day lead time.
rburrel2
Member
Here are things to look for at 18z, imo.
The NAM will probably trend to more separation with the two pieces we're watching, because it's about the only remaining guidance left with that idea of bringing the southern piece along for the ride. That's no reason to panic though, what we hope to see is that it still has a healthy precip shield blooming from the WSW to ENE across N. GA and in to the Southwest NC mountains.
The RGEM is pretty much in lock step with the Euro at 5h already, so we want to see it hold on to the same look at 5h,(ideally it would improve, but even just holding what it has will be fine)... and then we want to see it continue to advertise the nice precip shield that drops .15-.30 of liquid for most of the board like the CMC showed at 12z.
The GFS is a little worse than the other models mentioned at 5h, so hopefully we see a slight tick of improvement with it on that front at 18z. Furthermore... hopefully it starts picking up on a more expansive and filled in precip shield soon, (but I won't be shocked if it's the last to the party here, so no reason to panic if it still looks anemic). I don't expect it to lead the way with this system.
Let's hope the 18z Euro holds serve with what it just showed... and maybe ticks a slight bit wetter for western area's. We don't need big ticks here... just adding a few hundredth's would be a great start.
It's my hope that the Euro AI is struggling with it's qpf forecasting in this type set up, and we have no way to really know if that's a thing or not with it, so... that's my hope!! haha
Anyways, that's enough rambling for now.
The NAM will probably trend to more separation with the two pieces we're watching, because it's about the only remaining guidance left with that idea of bringing the southern piece along for the ride. That's no reason to panic though, what we hope to see is that it still has a healthy precip shield blooming from the WSW to ENE across N. GA and in to the Southwest NC mountains.
The RGEM is pretty much in lock step with the Euro at 5h already, so we want to see it hold on to the same look at 5h,(ideally it would improve, but even just holding what it has will be fine)... and then we want to see it continue to advertise the nice precip shield that drops .15-.30 of liquid for most of the board like the CMC showed at 12z.
The GFS is a little worse than the other models mentioned at 5h, so hopefully we see a slight tick of improvement with it on that front at 18z. Furthermore... hopefully it starts picking up on a more expansive and filled in precip shield soon, (but I won't be shocked if it's the last to the party here, so no reason to panic if it still looks anemic). I don't expect it to lead the way with this system.
Let's hope the 18z Euro holds serve with what it just showed... and maybe ticks a slight bit wetter for western area's. We don't need big ticks here... just adding a few hundredth's would be a great start.
It's my hope that the Euro AI is struggling with it's qpf forecasting in this type set up, and we have no way to really know if that's a thing or not with it, so... that's my hope!! haha
Anyways, that's enough rambling for now.
SimeonNC
Member
Agree 100% it was way underdone in last weeks system
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I mean we can’t waste this kind of cold
rburrel2
Member
If everything goes right for us I think we can come away with 2-4 inches of powder.
More realistically, I think it's fair to optimistically expect 1-2 inches with where things stand right now.
A complete whiff is still absolutely on the board though, we can't totally discount what the ukmet/euro ai/icon are showing even if we think they're wrong.
Makeitsnow
Member
Nope..this isn't precip related.
15z SREF!
rburrel2
Member
It looks like the SREF mean shifted North if anything... good signs.
12z AIFS and GraphCast are in with a sizable NORTHWARD shift
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks similar to what the NAM was showing. Maybe a touch south of the NAM
Everyone will laugh but I bet this is the final footprint in the end.
12z Euro Atari maps holding serve. Everything still on the table. Let’s get that fetch feeding from the SW out of the gulf then we’ll worry about who’s breaking the yardstick out 
rburrel2
Member
Still adding to totals at the end of the run here in NC/SC....
that pale yellow coloring is 50% probs of 3 inches... wow.
Caveat: I do not believe in the SREF, been burned many times with it, but a trend is a trend, so we take it.
that pale yellow coloring is 50% probs of 3 inches... wow.
Caveat: I do not believe in the SREF, been burned many times with it, but a trend is a trend, so we take it.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
That orientation too! SW - NE …. Turn the corner friend
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
What’s going on at the coast??
The Model agreements for Alabama are impressive!
packfan98
Moderator
Here is a great thread that highlights a breakdown of how the models have handled the snow coming to the mid Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow. We’ve definitely seen some of the same characteristics with the storm we are tracking. Canadian suite is the most amped. Another thing to note as we get into NAM range is that it has been on the weaker side of the modeling. Pretty fascinating read.
Yeah I would like where we are better if the bottom side of the modeling wasn't so bad (ukmet/euro ai/icon). UKMet here has the northern wave neutral tilt thru E Kentucky with the southern wave positive tilt thru C Texas. That's pretty terrible. 12z Euro AI was ever so slightly better with the overall trough tilt. Just gotta 'hope' somehow / some way that 500mb improves with hi res picking up on it. Columbia etc don't need much or any improvement, but different to the NW.
Updated
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I'm enjoying this weather far too much today! It's perfect!