That's from the big boys. No hype there I'm assuming. It's what they consensually believe.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
bud006
Member
I am one county away from the red … wow. This goes in the file of “things that escalated quickly.” I think there may be quite a few people in the Atlanta metro area who are surprised when they hear what I assume now will be ramped-up messaging through news and social media.
—30—
iGRXY
Member
With uptick in the SREF you have to think the NAM is going to come in strong. We should know here shortly
18z NAM thru hour 24 is already more amped with the trough in the PNW...
Oconeexman
Member
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Bring it home bouncy!
Man there's gonna be some borderline folks that can drive 20 minutes to see half a foot while they get sleet...its rough..we know all about it
Looks different up there in the NW
Six Mile Wx
Member
18z HRRR at hr 48 vs 12z Nam 12k
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The thing that I'd be concerned about is that it's trending towards possibly interacting with that ULL in the Pacific.
iGRXY
Member
NW is quite a bit more west as Bouncy mentioned.
Don't know if it helps to be farther west over WA because we need it to catch up with the northern piece later on and not get stuck behind....but we'll see, not sure
iGRXY
Member
Agreed. I think we need this thing to be as close to the N/Sas we can get.
Only way you can make up for more digging out west is if you dig the northern stream further west along with it, but that’s riskier business
rburrel2
Member
This is what's gonna save us.
That’s the only way to shift a storm track
iGRXY
Member
The N/S does look a little further west as well thru 42.
And hurt us here in the midlands. Warm nose
VARunner
Member
Precipitation shield does appear to be further NW with each run of most models.
iGRXY
Member
You’re seeing both slide further west. If we could hold our wave to dig down central Nevada and keep the N/S going this would be fantastic
That stupid bowling ball is getting awful close
We would need this to significantly shift West to have worry about warm nose issues.
Looks more neutral here. I’d think we’d get a good gulf fetch in a few minutes
Nice tick towards a favorable overrunning look
WeatherManNC
Member
I think Raleigh, NC will get around 3 inches of snowfall. I know that the models always put Raleigh on that line but even a touch of a NW shift would put us in range for 3-5 inches.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I’m an amateur…. But if they Made love to each other and formed one Giant Ball ….. would that not be a phased Monster ? Or do I have This confused with good phasing over TX?
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Would probably slow things down and the Northern stream leave it behind and we'd lose the cold. I'm not a physics major though, so maybe it could create something interesting for someone.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Philstorm91
Member
I noticed my local NWS point forecast is now calling for snow, possibly mixed with sleet on Tuesday. I guess they see the SREF and the NAM, shifting the warm nose over the Gulf coast areas. Hopefully if there is sleet, the snow is more prevalent in the mix.
Might be pessimistic. But I think this run looks much worse at h5 so far. Energy getting stuck out there
Let’s see what happens though I could very well be wrong
Let’s see what happens though I could very well be wrong
Nam has been going the opposite direction of what we want the last 2 runs
VARunner
Member
Nam sucks at this range. Would not be concerned just yet.
wow
Member
Caved
Oof
It's not totally off back there in the SW versus other modeling. I think we are likely kissing the phase goodbye, so now we have to rely on more precipitation over performing with frontogenesis and interesting things like that, idk.
The Euro and Canadian runs last night gave some false hope to a bigger storm.
The Euro and Canadian runs last night gave some false hope to a bigger storm.