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Wintry January 21-23 2025

beanskip said:
Are there any freezing rain or P-type products for the AIFS? As I'm trying to deciper the 12z run, it looks like 1 full inch of QPF for TLH with the temps in the upper 20s for the entire event but 850s way above freezing so ... all ZR ... can someone verify?
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Don't have ptype products, but here's the AI run up close

Jan 17 AI.gif
 
I think another underrated option, is somehow we weaken the northern stream trough overhead in the OH valley and go back to a WAA regime overrunning setup even with a more strung out southern wave. Kinda why the AI looked better
 
I think we’d be in a much better position if the western ridge wasn’t getting knocked down, tilting way positive, and pulling our wave to the west coast. Then, the trough gets smashed to south before it can get out of there. If the ridge could hold longer before tilting or if our our wave didn’t get pulled that far west then it could move east before getting flattened out. Watch where the energy enters and where it dives south (the further north and therefore east the better). Watch the tilting of the ridge, we need it to hold neutral as long as possible.
 
1300m said:
Yeah I think we've lost the southwestern wave, all we can hope for now is more digging from the northern wave. Could still work but it's not going to be the way we thought it was (IMO).
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What we need, see, is for the SW low to hang back long enough to catch the next big northern stream wave dropping down.
 
I wouldn't really worry about the NAM, the forecast period is still beyond 60 hours areas further east. I think it will flip flop until the period is within 60 hours or less, that goes for the other mid/short range models as well. Still, it's likely the system will transform into an overrunning event (frontal), which I'd take overrunning cause of minimal WAA with this scenario.

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Just my two cents, but these things have a way of trending the wrong direction for a while and about the time you give up, they trend the right way for a while to the point you think you're getting clobbered... wash, rinse, repeat.

I bet we've weathered the storm and are about to switch over to some positive vibes out West after a mostly awful 06z/12z. Euro holding serve or slightly improving here in a few hours will be critical.

I also think the southern piece has been lost for a while now... we really just need the northern part of the trough to move a few clicks back to the south and west.
 
rburrel2 said:
Just my two cents, but these things have a way of trending the wrong direction for a while and about the time you give up, they trend the right way for a while to the point you think you're getting clobbered... wash, rinse, repeat.

I bet we've weathered the storm and are about to switch over to some positive vibes out West after a mostly awful 06z/12z. Euro holding serve or slightly improving here in a few hours will be critical.
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Only concerned about the “New” EURO at 00Z… that and 12Z suite all I’d worry about tbh with the ingestion of new data. Idk Matthew East used to say that i believe. That the 06Z/18Z was always wonky good or bad bc it’s recycled Data


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StormWatch said:
I wouldn't really worry about the NAM, the forecast period is still beyond 60 hours areas further east. I think it will flip flop until the period is within 60 hours or less, that goes for the other mid/short range models as well. Still, it's likely the system will transform into an overrunning event (frontal), which I'd take overrunning cause of minimal WAA with this scenario.

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Things can change, but the problem is, this isn't just a NAM issue. Essentially all of the modeling has been worse today for the most part, save some areas way south which are still doing pretty well in some cases (and good for them)
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Only concerned about the “New” EURO at 00Z… that and 12Z suite all I’d worry about tbh with the ingestion of new data. Idk Matthew East used to say that i believe. That the 06Z/18Z was always wonky good or bad bc it’s recycled Data


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I don't know if others have updated data on this, but this has been debunked for many years. There are different ways outside of radiosondes / balloons that data is injected into the models (satellites, airplane sensors) that there is very little difference between the accuracy of each run when you average them out. At least that's what I have seen.
 
SUPER EASY to understand for all…. He says what some others have…. Easiest way to get this further NW is to sacrifice the HP to a degree. Like it’s that simple …. Kind of. Also “NW trend is only gospel to STRONG LP’s…. This is around 1015 … that’s not strong enough to wrap up and bend backwards NW that’s why it’s sliding or staying South, SE”


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Yeah, you want a complete no interaction with that cutoff out in the Pacific. Every run that shows more interaction is worse. We also want our wave dropping down a little East, I'd think. Either way, better run at 500mb. Should give some okay precipitation vs 12z.
 
18z RGEM has a secondary embedded low along the boundary. Moisture develops ahead of the tail end of the boundary. You can see the precipitation filling in across Georgia into the Carolina's Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Better trends with this feature on future runs perhaps.
c7e760c64fad80d29c0cb3bb7f6c5140.gif


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