Soooo 
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SegTindoPro
Member
I’ve been watching that one for trends and the gfs hasn’t shown much so that’s new to me do you think it’s gonna a big one or a small type storm
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Shaggy
Member
Suspect there will.still be some banger individual members
SegTindoPro
Member
What models are better at this time frame because I’ve been investing into the NBM but idk if it’s accurate
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NoSnowATL
Member
I would look at hi res models within 90 hrs
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I’m still not that worried about suppression yet as others are.
packfan98
Moderator
@Myfrotho704_ @1300m @griteater @Webberweather53
Any of yall got some analysis of the eps in the 5H setup? I sure didn’t expect it to improve like that.
Any of yall got some analysis of the eps in the 5H setup? I sure didn’t expect it to improve like that.
Incredible model agreement from the ensembles. wOw.
So basically its the Euro EPS/CMC/NBM vs the GFS/GEFS until short range comes into focus if they haven't already?
SegTindoPro
Member
Ok thanks I normally don’t look at hi res because it can be to aggressive or weak but I normally use the HRRR when it drops
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packfan98
Moderator
I see some good looking options
chapelhillwx
Member
I’m saving these images to see where we end up. This kind of disagreement from ensembles at like 3.5 days out is crazy
RDUHeatIsland
Member
18z Canadian. Still there but took a step back for sure
To me it brought what I mentioned earlier, NS still in a decent spot but not as oppressive and not suppressing the height field as much, and the southern wave sharpening up a bit. More leaned towards more overrunning
Forevertothee
Member
Webb, do you still think the lift for areas further N and West is still in play to help us South of 85 and West of 77?
SegTindoPro
Member
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NEGaweather
Member
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this is a legit awesome graphic by Brad. Gotta give it to him he gotten very well on graphics that the public can understand
A few 1 ft + on the 18z eps for mby
This is what separates almost a complete whiff for lot of the Carolina's (GEFS) v/s a major winter event on the EPS.
If I had any money I know which model I would be putting it on to win at day 3...
If I had any money I know which model I would be putting it on to win at day 3...
packfan98
Moderator
I find that it’s a model cycle behind. 6 hours later it will have assimilated all of the models we’ve already seen. It’s a good tool for the public and good for us to see the blend, but most of us here are already ahead of the NBM.
I think it is bringing back more of a coastal low that is enhancing the back half of the event. 00z last night had a big boom in those then started to fade and went back towards more deepening surface lows.
Either off shore or bangers, nothing too suppressed what a good sign of some life actually
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'd like to pull a comparison. Keep note this was the Euro at 36 hours back in 2017.
12Z Euro today
Subtle differenced with they key being the ULL in the PAC. Keep in mind how far up 2017 actually came to pass. From what I can tell even if we get bad. I'm very much focused on the NS and SW coming in. While this may not play out the same, this is a major reason I've not called anything yet.
12Z Euro todaySubtle differenced with they key being the ULL in the PAC. Keep in mind how far up 2017 actually came to pass. From what I can tell even if we get bad. I'm very much focused on the NS and SW coming in. While this may not play out the same, this is a major reason I've not called anything yet.
21z SREF looks good given the crappy NAM run it initialized with..
Atlanta is going to get snow again on Tuesday/Night. FFC is honking on this one.
I do wonder if that S/W in the Nw/SW Canada makes a difference though
6:00p 1/18: Winter weather impacts are expected across much of Central Alabama on Tuesday. An area of accumulating snowfall is expected across the southern half of Alabama on Tuesday, with travel impacts becoming likely. Winter products (Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Warning) are likely to be issued within the next day or so. In addition, very cold temperatures (10-20F) and wind chills (0-15F) have necessitated a Cold Weather Advisory for Monday morning. Further advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings will likely be needed in subsequent mornings. #alwx
May be an image of map and text
May be an image of map and text
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
It may be worth comparing the 2017 system with this to see how they play out. It's possible there's some interference but a diving SW and NS being that close resulting in a bomb Miller A once very much could mean it could happen the same again. The only change factor would be how they play out and the extra pieces and how they ultimately influence the storm.
There is no doubt they seem rather bullish. The northern impacts are just so up in the air. We need some clarity but not sure we get any until Monday morning
Chances of 0" of snowfall down to 10% for FFC.
We’ll see how this ages.
Avalanche
Member
Looks like its going negative tilt and pivoting. Might be too late who knows, but that's what Im seeing. Is it looking that way to me because of model changes run to run?