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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Thought GSP's discussion on the event from this afternoon was interesting

As of 200 PM EST Saturday: Strong arctic airmass will be in the
midst of spilling over the southeastern CONUS Monday as a strong
arctic surface high moves in across the Plains and stout CAA
filters in across the area. Factor in very broad upper troughiness
over most of the CONUS and the stage will be set for a very cold
and dry airmass. An upper ridge will begin to build over the West
Coast and eastern Pacific Monday into Tuesday and will allow for a
shortwave to carve out across the Southern Plains by Tuesday. As the
trough begins to sharpen from the Great Lakes region through the MS
Valley, surface cyclogenesis will be underway within the coastal
baroclinic zone over the Gulf of Mexico. In this case, a surface
low is expected to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and push
across the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. Depending on
the track of the low and how close or not close it will be to the
Gulf Coast will play a vital role into what the CFWA receives. The
cold air through the vertical column will be established, so any
precipitation that does fall will be all snow. This is a rare
occasion where the best chances of snow will actually be along and
south/east of I-85. Right now, model guidance only give our CFWA
a glimpse of snow as there is a lot of dry air in place for the
atmosphere to overcome for snow to reach the surface. The better
isentropic lift and available moisture will be to our south and
east, mainly over the Midlands/Pee Dee/Low Country. If the surface
low trends northwestward, closer along the Gulf Coast, then the I-85
corridor points south will be in business for a decent winter storm
that will be all snow. P-type concerns will remain well to the south
where WAA in the mid-levels could create this concern. There is the
instance that the area doesn`t receive much as the dry air will
eat into our snow chances and the storm track becomes suppressed
too far south and the areas just mentioned end up being the big
winners as far as snow amounts. Model guidance still favor a more
coastal track, but there are still uncertainties as the guidance
continues to waffle on the location of the surface low and how much
moisture is available. Once the high resolution models get a hold of
the system, then we will have a much better understanding of what we
will see and how much. A northwestward trend of ~50 miles for the
surface low and from what the model guidance currently indicate
could be the difference between hardly anything at all and a major
snow storm.
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bouncycorn said:
View attachment 165290
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If we could actually get a couple more of these nudges we could get the big dog back in play, but every cycle we take one step forward, the next cycle we go backwards. Good step, but we'll have to see if we can keep it going.
 
You know it's a lot more WAA/wetter when it starts out as rain and sleet in coastal SC and then turns over to hard sleet. Haven't really seen much of that rain start yet on modeling. Maybe its a timing thing too though.
 
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