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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Crow said:
Can you explain what these plots are showing? Webb showed them earlier and mentioned a further extension of the precip field but I would like to understand them a bit more. Thanks.
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They are showing frontogenesis and waa at the 700 and 850mb levels. You basically want some orange over your house along with purple circles. The more purple circles the higher likelihood of heavier precip
 
Seems like the extend of the precip was cutoff to the NW more on the RGeM because we met a ---- central but get rid of the northern stream and push it away and tilt the southern wave more/coil it up more and you go back to a amped overrunning setup rather quick vs a miller A appearance IMG_4303.gif
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
End of run:

View attachment 165329


It's going to be more useful Monday as I believe this was the main model that fired the warning that most of the models were wrong on the upper end of the precip back with Jan 2014.
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Probably because this short range model gets first dibs on obs and data each run hence why it might be useful in a setup like that and this one
 
Either way that current RAP run's 500mb sucks for much of a banger downstream. I can't let go of a neutral tilt. Dang it.
 
The NBM does not have any of these major model suites coming in tonight on it yet. Someone posted the charts earlier, but I think the ARW/WRF type members, the ones that were screwing up the SREF mean, are doing the same here. Can't be 100% without a real datasheet though.
 
beanskip said:
This was unexpected -- I know it's the end of the RGEM's range, but sheesh.
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Got caught in a ---- central where the northern stream backed off some but it’s to close by and the wave is still to strung. Either need to back it off more and tilt the base with the kicker or go back to slowing the northern stream
 
ForsythSnow said:
How did the NBM overall do last time? I'm curious as to how it's showing such a large streak in N GA where the more recent models barely touch it. It seems a bit off to me but could make sense if there's a strong lean into a far NW trend with a potential phase.
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Not bad up this way, it is something I watch closely and during last storm it had lower amounts iirc 1-2" consistently and that is where we ended up. I have no idea why it's beefed up amounts today in the face of all others decreasing. I've read and reread some points in that powerpoint and honestly I can't figure out exactly what models are used, during what hours and with what weight. Lol
 
SD said:
I wish I knew I would assume that the euro ticking up may be leaning it vs the gfs suire looking bad
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Has to be, but as far as I can tell at this lead time the GFS, GEFS and Euro are the heaviest weighted models in there. Still doesn't make sense to me
 
Metwannabe said:
Has to be, but as far as I can tell at this lead time the GFS, GEFS and Euro are the heaviest weighted models in there. Still doesn't make sense to me
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They may be making a conclusion outside of total model output. They may not be looking at the precip maps so much, but the 700mb moisture and upper atmospheric energy
 
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