rburrel2
Member
The nam came in with a finger death band over the southern upstate.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
RollTide18
Member
Looks like more precip this run
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Something says that SW isn't going to be as much of an issue on the 0Z suite so far. FV3 vort map. Deeper dig, that low shifting away.
Oconeexman
Member
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Smacks stevo with that finger this run. Much improved
NCWeatherhound
Member
Moisture looks better on this NAM run
Maybe this is the out. The trailing energy actually tilts the base of the trough faster....
A little funky looking but we will take it!
Yea buddy
Don't think so. It ends roughly at 7pm ET on Thurs
ive got a hankering feeling the people in central bama North of a line from Montgomery will get more than we bargained for.. so far we are at .5-1 inch in that are i believe
NCSNOW
Member
That SLP is to far south in GOM. We need it closer to coast
beanskip
Member
.6 of ice using FRAM method for TLH -- if that run verifies, hopefully I'll see y'all by next next winter when my power is restored ....
Tokenfreak
Member
Nah lets keep it out there. The closer it is to the coast the more sleet and freezing rain coastal areas get and less snow.
NoSnowATL
Member
Keep that low South.
This NAM run is northwest-trend-able for ATL...
We is pretty subjective when talking about SLP location.
SimeonNC
Member
There would deffo be more precip on the NW side on the NAM
NCSNOW
Member
Imagine that frane above at hour 75 and that surface low is 50-75 miles futher north. Be dark blues over everyone
rburrel2
Member
Sorta looks like it choked off anything further north bc if put everything in to that one band. I doubt the precip shield evolves like that, but who knows.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I've got to think the models are over accounting for
the dry air....maybe like 2014?
Still would like to see improvements for the northern stream aspect with that run, the base is tilted better, but the northern stream is fast and wants to clear things out quick. If we can slow it and back it up you result in more forcing further northwest initially
I've dreamed about plots like these
Nasty Ice Storm for southern GA and northern FL verbatim. This output looks vaguely familiar.
Crow
Member
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
What would that be? 3 hurricanes and a crippling ice storm in the most recent history for that area?
BHS1975
Member
NAM is all sleet/ZR for coastal areas from TX to SC. NC coast is is all snow
NCSNOW
Member
RDpS Northern stream is futher west than nam.
Edit . Nvm wind up same
Edit . Nvm wind up same
Last edited:
Well hello there, NBM!
The only thing I can thing if is that the system just moving too fast. That said, with that much FGEN forcing even back to the mountains, there should have been a much more expansive precip shield over the western Carolinas than is shown. Especially with that jet overhead
accu35
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Can you post that further west please?
I seen this asked before, but didn’t see the response. How is the NBM still increasing if all the major models decreasing in the northern areas?
beanskip
Member
0z ICON inching north with precip as well as the amount of QPF. Not exactly a blizzard but nice 0z trend so far.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
How did the NBM overall do last time? I'm curious as to how it's showing such a large streak in N GA where the more recent models barely touch it. It seems a bit off to me but could make sense if there's a strong lean into a far NW trend with a potential phase.
That looks about the same to me. I wanna see precip up in Arkansas to make me feel good.
Icon is west with precip