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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Avalanche said:
Looks like its going negative tilt. Might be too late who knows, but that's what Im seeing.
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I hope so but that's not what the NWS at RDU thinks in their latest discussion. It was so long I couldn't cut, copy and paste it but they said it would be postively tilted. The adjectives flat and surpressed were in their discussion too. The NWS believes the low will eventually intensify when it gets into the Atlantic but too late to do central and eastern North Carolina much good. That is not good news for snow lovers but they did admit their forecast was low confidence.
 
Latest Euro AI run not out yet, but here is EPS, then Euro, then Euro AI at 18z Tuesday

The southern wave thru TX is similar for all 3, but the northern trough thru Indiana is farthest west for the EPS and farthest east for the AI. It looks like the upstream kicker wave in western Canada is fastest on the AI, and the AI northern trough is the weakest (trough not as deep). So, fast and weak with the northern stream is no good for getting more precip north (as seen on the AI and probably the highly suppressed members on the EPS)

Jan 17 Euro Loop.gif
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd like to pull a comparison. Keep note this was the Euro at 36 hours back in 2017.

View attachment 16525612Z Euro today
View attachment 165257

Subtle differenced with they key being the ULL in the PAC. Keep in mind how far up 2017 actually came to pass. From what I can tell even if we get bad. I'm very much focused on the NS and SW coming in. While this may not play out the same, this is a major reason I've not called anything yet.
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Keep this thing in striking distance from a decent storm a few days out and I’m pretty happy with that, especially knowing how these usually trend in the short term. Dec 2017 one of the most prolific examples
 
Down here in the Lowcountry it’s crazy the difference in the forecast 3 days out. Could have 1/2” and it melts in a few hours or 8” and it’s here till probably the weekend. And so many people have moved here since 2018 they don’t know what to do particularly with ice and snow.
 
Sctvman said:
Down here in the Lowcountry it’s crazy the difference in the forecast 3 days out. Could have 1/2” and it melts in a few hours or 8” and it’s here till probably the weekend. And so many people have moved here since 2018 they don’t know what to do particularly with ice and snow.
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Yeah its going to be really interesting to see what actually happens. I was here during the snow storm in January 2018 where we got about 6" a little north of Charleston. I was also here in February 2010 where we got about 6" as well. Both of those times were rough in this area so I can't imagine possibly getting 8" especially with all these new people that have moved in over the years.
 
weather bubba said:
I hope so but that's not what the NWS at RDU thinks in their latest discussion. It was so long I couldn't cut, copy and paste it but they said it would be postively tilted. The adjectives flat and surpressed were in their discussion too. The NWS believes the low will eventually intensify when it gets into the Atlantic but too late to do central and eastern North Carolina much good. That is not good news for snow lovers but they did admit their forecast was low confidence.
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Now I don't want to come across as questioning the Raleigh NWS but I'm wondering if they are basing that discussion off of the information from the 18z GFS/GEFS?

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Myfrotho704_ said:
AIFS last 3 runs View attachment 165272
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It's trending away from flatter. We want to see this. I'd expect if this continues, a larger moisture pool will flow inland. A trend like that to me says it could be catching onto a more phased solution. If there's H5 maps, I'd think it's inching closer to a phase at some point.
 
c584b16035e70ce8159bc36273149aa1.jpg

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DixieBlizzard said:
That map is kind of bizarre from this part of Georgia's perspective. We have about 25% chance of 2" of snow but they are expecting no accumulation at all. I figured we would be at least at a trace to less than one inch
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IMO this is their way of saying “models are showing so many different possibilities we really have no clue what’s going to happen. We could get nothing but we could also get 8 inches.”
 
ragtop50 said:
This is only through 7 pm Tuesday, so it does not include the peak of the storm for areas in the east.
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My question is what time does it all go down like is that before or after the storm? So many questions


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