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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
beanskip
Member
Thought the GFS looked better at 500mb, but the actual weather didn't reflect it -- light QPF and not great coverage through 78 hours -- AND much warmer than any other model.
NBM also has bias correction built in.
Dang that is some massive changes for a few runs.
beanskip
Member
Hmmm. Northern stream looks very different on CMC at 42 hours vs. 18z.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not loving this CMC run so far
Lol wut 
I honestly don't know the last time we have seen such horrible consistency in the models. I would assume because of all the energy flying around the models really don't know what is going to happen.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Thought the CMC was essentially lockstep with its short range brother, but based on this, nope:
Next frame, all the precip is in south and southeast GA.
Edit: Hmm, nevermind, disregard me. These maps where it was just precip only fooled me.
Next frame, all the precip is in south and southeast GA.
Edit: Hmm, nevermind, disregard me. These maps where it was just precip only fooled me.
Pretty noticeable move toward gfs/euro from captain canada
beanskip
Member
Is it just me or does it seem with this storm that that its harder to connect sensible weather developments with changes in upper level maps? For example, it seems like the 500mb features are improved, but the surface maps don't follow and then vice versa. Maybe it's just because I'm so dumb.
NCSNOW
Member
The GFS prformance this past week has been beyond bad. Seriously as bad as ive ever seen. Had this low up in ohio few days ago. But you are correct, everyone of them has had their bad moments
Maybe a lot to do with it is the anomalous cold push.
yes, the CMC is folding toward the GFS and EURO...
Seems like some decent steps in the right direction as the H5 but tbh surface reflections have gotten worse. I'll stay up for the Euro tonight, only thing keeping hope alive for mby at the moment.
agreed!
Honestly, the fact that the CMC didn’t completely collapse is really interesting.
SegTindoPro
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Just post the trends and move along no need guy the extra commentary
NCSNOW
Member
If you take gfs, canadian at face value 0z tonight,espeacilly gfs. Northern Wilmington nws vicinity is in trouble of getting blanked. Talk about a gut kick.
Ehhh its a pretty full-on cave as far as i can tell. Hopefully nobody ever thought the crazy runs would actually verify. More interested in if the GEFS comes back to life anymore QPF-wise here
It has stayed solid through the bayou. Too bad we can’t translate things east anymore. Good ol’ days seem to be long gone
It's well on it's way..lol
I'm noticing a trend here too, even with respect to the end state of the shorter range models.
No I agree it caved, but on the optimistic flip side. It didn’t crater to the GFS or Icon. Makes you want to see the Euro tonight. Because for some of us, this would be a good trend should it continue.
NCSNOW
Member
I was thinking this today. Glad you posted. Cause if this is how it unfolds. This AI has whooped physics models badly for the 2cnd time in 2 weeks.
The answer appears to be a resounding: not really. Like the slightest uptick for some in NC and AL but mostly the same as 18z
Remember last night when that big Euro/EPS run came in it looked like a cave to the Canadian was coming but that has since corrected in the worst way. I do think it was on to something early but ultimately it appears to be wrong
albertwilsonjr
Member
Let’s wait for the hrrr and what it shows until we start making conclusive statements
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Foolish to try to say what a model is about to do but im gonna try anyways lol. but i'd be surprised if you got much more outta the euro. Just hope for a nice tick back toward a less + tilt like we had in that banger from last night.
12z Pangu had a pretty interesting solution. Unfortunate that it doesn't output precip.
Let’s all be honest, the great white beast is dead unless something drastically changes, but for a lot of us going from 1-2” to 3-5” would be a huge deal. Anything over 5” is a big dog to me.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Man that's a pretty look. Deepen that low just a bit, double the qpf in the North, you got something for everyone. Track it ENE to Jacksonville then pivot and you got an I 85 special.