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Wintry January 21-23 2025

On the 18z Nam, there is still snow, don't get me wrong. It's just a situation where we are really going to screw up what could have been a bigger event, in a very rare case of having true Arctic air around. Kind of lame, tbh.
 
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weather bubba said:
I would ignore this run of the NAM. A 1065mb high isn't happening. Knock off about 25 millibars and that would be more reasonable.
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Don't think that's really the issue here, the issue is that the wave dropping in from Canada drops in too far west and it interacts with the ULL, which strings it out, not phases.

The depiction the Euro has really needs to be right as it doesn't interact, but it's shifted to the west too.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Got to stop interacting with that bowling ball in the Pacific, if we want a storm..... or, better yet, absorb it quickly and bring it out cleanly.
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Yes. It was looking good til it started to interact @ 54. I don’t think it would take a lot to fix that tbh
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Don't think that's really the issue here, the issue is that the wave dropping in from Canada drops in too far west and it interacts with the ULL, which strings it out, not phases.

The depiction the Euro has really needs to be right as it doesn't interact, but it's shifted to the west too.
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Yes, the benchmark is the Idaho chimney. That's where you want the energy dropping down. Then you want to stay away from the cut-off low out in the Pacific and outpace the northern stream. That's how "big dogs" are born.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The most disgusting thing about this setup is if we would have been able to sneak that cutoff under our our northern wave digging in this would have been an event where you’d need a ruler to measure in places. Maybe one day.
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These setups are rare man, gotta cash in when we have the opportunity. I'm not even asking for a foot, but like 6-8 inches down here, since 2010 that has happened.

I honestly can't wait to get out of this State into the plains somewhere.
 
Shawn said:
These setups are rare man, gotta cash in when we have the opportunity. I'm not even asking for a foot, but like 6-8 inches down here, since 2010 that has happened.

I honestly can't wait to get out of this State into the plains somewhere.
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Hell, just go to Richmond or Southern DE/MD they score constantly in multiple different setups


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The NAM just has me in sleet for now idk if it’ll even switch to snow…
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Are there any freezing rain or P-type products for the AIFS? As I'm trying to deciper the 12z run, it looks like 1 full inch of QPF for TLH with the temps in the upper 20s for the entire event but 850s way above freezing so ... all ZR ... can someone verify?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The most disgusting thing about this setup is if we would have been able to sneak that cutoff under our our northern wave digging in this would have been an event where you’d need a ruler to measure in places. Maybe one day.
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Sad that we can't absorb that cut off cleanly and bring it out faster. Or stay away from it. This is the last puzzle piece to work out.... we have the cold air and a well-positioned trough axis. Let's just see how that western energy trends. It may be heading to a solution that includes absorbing that low.
 
Yeah that was about as ugly as you could draw up at H5. Good news is you’re still getting over performing FGEN. Definitely need the vort to enter in central Washington minimum IMO. Need that sucker going through central Nevada at worst also. Again, we don’t even need a full phase, just enough to get some good lift going.
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah that was about as ugly as you could draw up at H5. Good news is you’re still getting over performing FGEN. Definitely need the vort to enter in central Washington minimum IMO. Need that sucker going through central Nevada at worst also. Again, we don’t even need a full phase, just enough to get some good lift going.
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Yep, that precip shield went BANG over Central SC and Eastern NC at the end of that run... even with that awful 5h evolution. If we can just keep it where the Euro has it now, we will be fine.
 
rburrel2 said:
We just need the NAM to line up with the Euro at 500mb and it would have been a good hit for everyone. That's still on the table as I'm gonna trust the Euro over the 84hr NAM for that. Let's hope the RGEM stays steady out West.(it did line up with the euro at 12z).
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Yeah that run tells me that as awful as the H5 was you’re still getting the EURO footprint with a better H5 setup. If you can get H5 to look like the EURO, then you’re getting something like the 12z NAM. Really that simple at this point
 
Mitch West said:
Going to sound greedy as heck & I am sure @Shawn & others from CAE will agree, but this set up is way to freakin rare to only manage an inch of snow. We gotta bring back the good vibes tonight.
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Yeah Mitch, I think a lot of us feel the same way, but especially for you in Columbia - this is one to cash in on if you can get some tweaks
 
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