Folks in AL and GA. Watch what happens in MS and LA as we get closer. Those areas will show the north trend in precip first.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
I have a hard time believing that much snow in South Louisiana??
easy---we're in a good spot
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Looks better, but will be telling to see if we get 8-12 big dogs like on 0Z in ENS. If so I’m totally on board with the assumption 0Z / 12Z data is different… has to be
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NCSNOW
Member
Man the doc looks pretty good at 12Z
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Something to focus on is that shift in LA and how far north that precip goes. Get some proper fgen and you can see a chance at that filling in much more ENEward. How's the 500 vort look?
If you can’t enjoy the spot many of us are sitting in right now 4 days out you may need to find a new hobby. We’ve got a storm that is likely all snow that gives everyone from @Stormsfury to @Mitch West and even us near clt and gsp a shot. This doesn’t happen often. Enjoy the ride
Just a wee bit orientation change on that precip field last run. Not so sharp sw-->ne. Could be just noise
This Euro run stops the bleeding IMHO. Now we we can just get the CMC to hold, 99% of us will be thrilled with 3-6” locally more.
The Euro should at least slow down the escalator to the top of the cliff a tad.
beanskip
Member
I'll give the Tallahassee PBP for our big N. Florida audience (perhaps, me).
Big change on 12z Euro is a conversion from snow to a nasty ice storm with .5 inches plus for TLH and a large swath of N. Florida and a nice hunk of SE Ga.
In addition to hoping for the NW trend, I'd strongly advise my friends to my north be mentally prepared for the zone of ZR and IP to expand as and potentially eat into snow totals.
Big change on 12z Euro is a conversion from snow to a nasty ice storm with .5 inches plus for TLH and a large swath of N. Florida and a nice hunk of SE Ga.
In addition to hoping for the NW trend, I'd strongly advise my friends to my north be mentally prepared for the zone of ZR and IP to expand as and potentially eat into snow totals.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That 12z Euro run was actually better than the 6z. It is getting back to that overrunning look the models had originally. Look at the precip expansion back in LA and MS. That's very intriguing. I would rate this run a definite improvement.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
0z Euro
12z
Yeah, I would say the wave is a smidge to the west, but it still works anyway.
Based off the way this looks, need to forget any interaction with the ULL and this should work for a lot of us.
12z
Yeah, I would say the wave is a smidge to the west, but it still works anyway.
Based off the way this looks, need to forget any interaction with the ULL and this should work for a lot of us.
Let this precip shield do what it usually does and we are sitting pretty
CMC ens
astroworld123
Member
Yea looks pretty good if we didn't see the 00z run. From what I gather, people here think that it won't be as steep of a cutoff as this run suggests and there's a possibility of more NW precipitation given that Euro understimates moisture? - a casual who joined yesterday and wants to learn this stuff!
weather bubba
Member
That is a sharp cutoff line for the haves and have nots! This run did look better than earlier runs of the Euro though except for the 00z and I'm sure many would be happy with it. My residence is right on that aforementioned cutoff line so I'd feel good with about a fifty mile jog to the north and west just to be safe.
SimeonNC
Member
I wish I had TT maps for this but yeah I don't hate this look
Cary_Snow95
Member
I think a general 1-2” across central NC with 3-5” at the coast is the most likely scenario
NCSNOW
Member
Ive seen, Nam,Canadian an Euro combo before chasing storms workout for the better. Tell you if the canadian and euro op position can just work itself 40 - 60 miles more NW or line up with the12z nam surface low in gulf. The 85 crowd will be golden.
You notice how well defined the surface low is in western GOM on nam,can,euro verse icon,ukmet,gfs. Thats the rubber match right there. Along with its placemebt track across GOM, next.
You notice how well defined the surface low is in western GOM on nam,can,euro verse icon,ukmet,gfs. Thats the rubber match right there. Along with its placemebt track across GOM, next.
weather bubba
Member
I think that is a good prediction so far for our area. That would stay around awhile at least until Friday's possible threat and even though I hope we get more I would be happy with that.
WSSI charts updated. Likelihood of moderate impacts is first followed by the likelihood for major impacts
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea, even at a conservative
.10 - .15” QPF back to 77 Corridor and 13/1 Ratios (IK MIGHT be higher) that’s 1-2”
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12z EC imo looks closer to the 12z NAM at 500mb when comparing the T+48hr-60hr range, compared to the GFS,UK, ICON and to some extent the CMC/RGEM. Just trying to better understand where we may be going over the next 24hrs as opposed to living and dying by each cycle and metaphysical accumulation maps.
If the NAM and euro get into agreement over next 24-36hrs we may have to live with that solution---whatever it is.
BKWRN29
Member
What does it normally do? Increase?
Tsappfrog20
Member
NCSNOW
Member
I think they are very close imo. I think Euro looked best of all at H5 over 12z runs. If canadian and espeacilly euro have the h5 nailed down how ns and ss are gonna interact, all you need is them to have the surface low placed where nam has it at 12z. If we ever needed a 50-60 mile trend 4 days out on approach, its this one. They always happen. But this is us , and we master in finding ways for stuff not to work out lol.
What I am noticing is that it's increasing INSIDE the original footprint of snow & the edges are getting tight as far as a cut off. Either way we will continue to see wobbles one way or the other. Just goes to show you how members are starting to zero in & someone is going to be on the wrong side punching air.
I was on the wrong side on January 3rd 2018 so I know how that feels.
I was on the wrong side on January 3rd 2018 so I know how that feels.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Not much to be mad about with the eps showing 2-3” 4 days out. It can and will come NW
Due to the orientation and strong winds driving SW to NE flow you see that NW quadant of system sorta like a mini jet stream draw up a strong moisture feed and spread over area. Alot of globals historically arent great on picking up this especially several days out... NAM/HRRR/RAP/RGEM are usually better at sniffing that out. I wouldn't say its a SURE thing but % wise it happens alot. If you think about it if your globals are showing you only getting .06 inch of rain but NAM and real time your seeing expanse of moderate showers to NW and you end up getting say .15 or .20 in expected 15 to 1 Ratios.... You go from 1 inch to 3-4 inches
NCSNOW
Member
Thanks for posting kuchera.
Amazing what a 45 mile west shift would do for folks back yard. Double what you are seeing
astroworld123
Member
Hopefully will end up happening for us folks
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EPS qpf better too. .15” back to Clemson
Pretty wild to see these probabilities so far south
