RollTide18
Member
I kinda figured we would have some mixing issues of sorts, a ZR/IP to Snow scenario is fine, just don’t want an Ice Storm
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I kinda figured we would have some mixing issues of sorts, a ZR/IP to Snow scenario is fine, just don’t want an Ice Storm
You are right. Some of the best snowfall rates I’ve ever seen occurred for me in the first 4 hours of the February 2014 storm. The initial FGEN set up right over me with the sleet line about 25 miles to my south and east. I got nearly 6” in four hours before the sleet line moved north
iGRXY
Member
Definitely a bit further west so far.
Feel like nam/rgem are perfectly fine to look at for the longer range, just knowing they’re likely a little more subject to change than the globals when you’re bumping into the end of their range.
Notice how everything is slowing down 
SegTindoPro
Member
So the closer it gets the chance it turns to rain?
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Agree. Ignoring them is more dangerous than the other extreme of putting all your faith in them IMO
iGRXY
Member
So HR 55-60 is where you’re starting to see the N/S nudge forward more. Again not awful but you just don’t want it to get too far aheadI’m not really saying whether it will move north or south. What I’m referring to is that we’ve seen the global models really point to that area as getting a mainly snow event but now with the NAM coming into range, it showing a warm nose and giving that area mainly sleet and freezing rain. The NAM is dead on about the warm nose 95% of the time.
I get that it's the NAM at 84, but a 2-mile thick nearly saturated DGZ is attention getting lol.
Still squashes but precip is further n than 06z
beanskip
Member
ICON definitely perking up -- moving away from "whiff-ville" easing north with the precip shield. Really nice hit for bayou country. Moving in the right direction.
Yep better
I wouldn’t say that. You’ve still got a cold airmass but there’s a lot of warm air pulled from the gulf into that cold airmass which causes the upper levels to torch. Happens here all the time. You guys need to pull for a weaker system
Ehh I’d say the RGEM is moving away from that golden look at 00z even more 
chase223322
Member
Hate to post a purely personal issue but how would you all feel about having a 2:00pm Tuesdat flight out of Hartsfield? I absolutely dont want to get stuck at the airport…
SegTindoPro
Member
iGRXY
Member
Even with the idea of the phase much less likely to happen you can already see the SER poking its head more out aheadiGRXY
Member
The phase idea is probably not going to happen but you can see the N/S inching further and further SW
iGRXY
Member
And that’s with your HP probably 5mb too strong
Hey the RGEM was dang solid for the entire last even including the first to really scream about the southern finger of snow across AL. At the last moment I discounted it and it made me look like stupid.
Brandon10
Member
Hopefully this thing moves more ENE to protect 850s in the coastal plain 
SegTindoPro
Member
at the end of its range
It would be exceedingly helpful if the southern wave was not also hanging back.
iGRXY
Member
That’s a very solid run from both the short range models at the end of their ranges. You could quickly see that finger forming on both
Even with the HP probably about 5-7mb stronger than what will verify, that’s still a look that should transfer well for the I-20 and I-85 corridors. Oh and I’ve been in your camp on the phasing for a couple days. I’m not convinced that we need phasing here to end up with a pretty good storm
NCSNOW
Member
Need that surface low in northern GOM, not central. Thats key. Closer it rides Gulf coast,better its gonna be for us up here. Doesnt have to be sub 1000mb monster. A weak sauce will work and enhance FGEN , qpf etc.
Need to slow down that northern stream some, for ex the 00z CMC vs todays 12z RGEM. Not great trends here on the Canadian suite as these go hand to hand 
You should be fine. Later on is when things get going. They may be slow due to de-icing but that would be it.
It’s the winter of the positive tilt wave extending back to Baja. I guess the “Y” shape here means yes, it’s going to snow in Atlanta again
Not really a great start trend-wise to the 12z runs. Certainly not counting on the GFS to turn it around. Probably will see the CMC continuing to slowly come down to earth too.
The northern stream has got to slow down and dig more or the SW wave has to catch up.
The northern stream has got to slow down and dig more or the SW wave has to catch up.
Dawg..
Yeah this is nowhere near as good as last nights H5 depiction of the Canadian. I’d imagine the 12z CMC is back to earth a bit if it shows this projection
albertwilsonjr
Member
They are putting snow a is further north. We are cooking
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Cbmatt2408
Member
So for a semi newby in this stuff. It seems like west central Georgia has been a hotspot for this one for a while. Does the NW trend need to be a concern for us, or is this looking like the 50 year event type deal right now. I won’t ask any more clutter questions.
hm. seems a bit overexcited if you ask me
It sucks to be right on the edge of something historic and just miss by a few hours. The two Xs need to merge, like the NAM kind of gets to here.
This whole area is a powelder keg. We just need to figure out how to get it to ignite.
This whole area is a powelder keg. We just need to figure out how to get it to ignite.