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Wintry January 21-23 2025

KyloG said:
The EPS snow mean is so mis-leading....so many whiffs but so many big dogs.

There is 18-20 whiffs or almost whiffs. So if this can trend to an event and the whiffs get eliminated the snow mean would triple. But on the other hand there is a 40% chance of no event.


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Yep, I noticed this earlier.

Basically a 40% chance of a big dog, a 40% chance of nothing, and a 20% chance of a light event for the coastal plain/coast.

That makes it seem like it's going to break one way or the other instead of meeting in middle.
 
rburrel2 said:
Yep, I noticed this earlier.

Basically a 40% chance of a big dog, a 40% chance of nothing, and a 20% chance of a light event for the coastal plain/coast.

That makes it seem like it's going to break one way or the other instead of meeting in middle.
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Honestly, with our history of snow events, those are damn good odds. I will take them anytime.
 
FWIW Jaime Arnold just posted the true Golden Standard to its max time frame....its got Mix in N.O. and Snow further North in line with SREF/NAM/CMC
 
rburrel2 said:
Look at how awful the EPS was 96hrs before the event in Northern Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio.

Basically the entire area on the north side of the precip shield that was progged to get .5-1.5 of snow, actually got 3-6 inches of snow.

Also, the Ark/La/Tex region shows why you don't want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. That 6.7 inch max on this mean verified as a dusting of slop.

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The ai was also way too light over a huge area roughly at this time range.
 
Arcc said:
Once thing to once again consider, the northern stream slows down 95% of the time as we near verification.
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I’ve heard the GFS being to progressive with the northern stream, but I can’t think of an example where that has happened on other models
 
griteater said:
Is that something that is typical / that you observe a lot arcc?
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Yes, at least it seems to be. I can’t tell you how many threats I’ve watched the for the NC guys to trend westward with the northern stream to only stop just a the point of actually giving y’all a storm. Hahaha
 
Arcc said:
Yes, at least it seems to be. I can’t tell you how many threats I’ve watched the for the NC guys to trend westward with the northern stream to only stop just a the point of actually giving y’all a storm. Hahaha
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Gotcha

I don’t think there is any question that the mid level warm advection can crank precipitation north and trend stronger closer to go time.

But the bigger question to me is just what you are referring to - ie how much does the northern stream get out ahead of the SW wave and reduce the overrunning flow. The AI models are a big red flag to me. We probably meet in the middle with the modeling for the most part…but in my view, the idea of a big and widespread event has gone down. That could wobble back of course. We’ll see.

I thought the Columbia area was a big winner in the overnight model trends in terms of getting snow on the ground in an area that really struggles to do so
 
Avalanche said:
It’s not like it’s far off from tucking that wave in and becoming something worthy of significance
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Yes, but I have given up a phase. How many times we hope for a phase here this close and it never happens. However, if we can just get the northern stream to dig SW and give us a stronger flow aloft; we will be just fine.
 
I know The Weather Channel has become a running joke compared to what they used to be but they are rather bullish on their snowfall maps this morning with a good portion of NC and SC seeing three to five inches and five to eight inches in eastern sections. I hope they aren't putting those up just for entertainment value like most of their other programming.
 
griteater said:
Gotcha

I don’t think there is any question that the mid level warm advection can crank precipitation north and trend stronger closer to go time.

But the bigger question to me is just what you are referring to - ie how much does the northern stream get out ahead of the SW wave and reduce the overrunning flow. The AI models are a big red flag to me. We probably meet in the middle with the modeling for the most part…but in my view, the idea of a big and widespread event has gone down. That could wobble back of course. We’ll see.

I thought the Columbia area was a big winner in the overnight model trends in terms of getting snow on the ground in an area that really struggles to do so
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Honestly, I think the CMC does back down at 12z(then again I’ve been thinking that would happen for the past few days. Hahaha.) I am with you for the most part, probably a solid even 2-5” for a lot of us with the hope that we may get more should the stars align.
 
I know I should remember this… didn’t the long range NAM do pretty well with last weeks storm?


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