iGRXY
Member
The Euro just took a huge leap to the CMC. I I’ll be interesting to see if this is the start of the NW trend or not
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Exactly the trend we need
Stormsfury
Member
On the last one, the slowing trend of precip arrival affected SC a bit. I need to reiterate that the GFS whiffed completely too warm on our in situ setup last Friday by at least 6 to 8 too warm..during the height of it and the off/on sleet didn't cease until after almost 2pm...
Philstorm91
Member
Yeah the Euro seems like it's got more juice this run, with the usual higher totals along southern Louisiana and eastern North Carolina. I'm pretty happy at the trends so far. Hopefully the Euro starts locking it in, because it's just about perfect for my area where it's at.
astroworld123
Member
Looks great for central NC man what a time to be alive
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CMC ensemble remains stable.
iGRXY
Member
Crazy uncle and his cousins are holding the line for as long as they can lolbeanskip
Member
Ho hum, nothing happening here, just the best model around, at only 111 hours, showing about 4 inches of snow in Tallahassee which would be the most snow EVER RECORDED in Florida's state capital.
All of a sudden we've got the CMC/GEPS/ECMWF lining up. EPS on deck.
RollTide18
Member
A possible appetizer Sunday
Six Mile Wx
Member
EPS should be lit!
Stormsfury
Member
If the GEM and its ensembles ultimately score this one right ... it will be my go to model on highly anomalous arctic outbreaks with upglide/FGEN, overrunning setups ... period.
This level of consistency rivals what the Feb 12th 2010 event the King EURO did on the Southern Slider widespread snow event then.
Makeitsnow
Member
gfs is upwards of 12 degrees warmer than the euro, Canadian, and icon at 18z tue over ga/sc. Even 5 or 6 warmer than the uk. Something is very screwy with its surface temps
Edit to add gfs is just warmer period in the low levels with 925mb temps 4 or 5c warmer. Clearlerly an outlier
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So tonight so far
- GFS about same overall still in same overall camp as CMC
GFS Ensembles - Uptick overall and to N and W
- CMC steady as shs goes another big run
- Euro come roaring back to get in line with CMC
-UKMET slight improvements bring closer to coast
Listen its very exciting because if these models this weekend can settle on track like CMC is putting on and with these setups there being a chance for beefy precip field to NW then this very well could be one of the bigger storms in past 20 years
- GFS about same overall still in same overall camp as CMC
GFS Ensembles - Uptick overall and to N and W
- CMC steady as shs goes another big run
- Euro come roaring back to get in line with CMC
-UKMET slight improvements bring closer to coast
Listen its very exciting because if these models this weekend can settle on track like CMC is putting on and with these setups there being a chance for beefy precip field to NW then this very well could be one of the bigger storms in past 20 years
Starting to tell what makes or breaks a run. Noticed immediately on the euro that this area of troughing was more bent back towards the pac vort. The more you do that, the more you load up the trough and slow the northern stream down. Important to note that this trend begun at 18z and is a trend occuring as early as D 1.5… 
I've definitely noticed this on the CMC and RGEM also.
EPS making the same strides of positivity and greatness 
Feel like this has got to be a data ingest thing.
Always last minute features that make and break a storm. And this is no different, great to see
WOAH AND NOT DONE 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Fro, I hate to ask…but can we have a Euro SE ptype loop…I want to see the whole replay on it…good runs like that deserve another look
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HUGE increase on the 00z EPS! Still going....
And which model suite has the most robust data ingest/assimilation of Canada? The Canadian model suite.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
SegTindoPro
Member
dsaur
Member
Wish it would bring back the 15 inches it was showing the other day
But I think I can live with 7 and lows in the teens, that'll get nice and crusty even without sleet on top
Incredible increase. Full on cave to the GEPS.
Whoah. Not only did that up totals, it shifted the footprint and centered it over I-20 and into central portions the SE..
And remember, that's with stock 10:1 ratios!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Thanks man! Folks…I gotta say small changes in position, structure, strength of energy upstream make a big difference and can pay big dividends downstream. The Euro is a great example of that now. NWS offices in the SE are probably spitting there coffee out right now over this new Euro data. This option is one of a few on the table. Let’s hope this is our correct solution.
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EPS is strongly in support of the op, that's for sure. Whatever got ingested in the 00z runs has brought about a ton of consensus. These individual panels coming in are a sight to behold.
rburrel2
Member
Throw some respect behind that cmc/jma/cfs/navgem combo!!!! Let’s go!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I wouldn’t expect much change NWS wise unless it does this 3-4 straight runs. (I don’t blame them) 24hrs is a Trending
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Wow. That was an incredible EPS run. Hopefully we can build on that moving forward
EPS 3-inch probs
EPS 3-inch probs
I am completely stunned. The CMC is gonna own e’m isn’t it…