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Wintry January 21-23 2025

NickyBGuarantee said:
I just have a hard time believing somehow the CMC is worlds better than the GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles.

CMC seems to be the most out to lunch vs the GFS. Regardless, it’s going to be extremely embarrassing for one of these models. My bet is the CMC is off.

Still think this is a solid winter storm for the coastal regions. More ice south with the warming upper levels. 1-2 inches for inland areas around Raleigh maybe less towards the foothills. Sweet spot for snow will be the outerbanks region of NC.

Hope somehow things can trend bigger for the whole group but inland areas still have much time to score in the winter.
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All we can do at this point is monitor the trends with that energy in the SW and watch how the trough orients.
 
Downeastnc said:
I bunch of the Euro and GFS ensembles show what the CMC just ran....
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Averaged out though they look more like their operationals. Yes the big dog potential is still out there. But given all the data I’d have to say the chance is looking smaller.

Alas I do wish the CMC would budge so can’t say with absolute confidence but it’s hard to stand behind the CMC with confidence at this point.
 
Arcc said:
That or either the rest of our models are absolute crap. This has got to be bad or good data somewhere causing this. The crazy uncle has never did this at day ten much less just over four days out.
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I mean we’re posting all timer frames at hour 102! I just have such a hard time believing that one time the mad scientist is gonna stick to its guns and be right on its island. It’s gotta cave this weekend, right?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Averaged out though they look more like their operationals. Yes the big dog potential is still out there. But given all the data I’d have to say the chance is looking smaller.

Alas I do wish the CMC would budge so can’t say with absolute confidence but it’s hard to stand behind the CMC with confidence at this point.
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This is true, but only one of those members may be correct. We often forget that fact and that is why we get burned relying on a “mean”.
 
Ross said:
i keep on wondering when the cmc will back down and instead it ticked a little better than the 12z lol
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I noticed that too. It's not printing out that widespread foolishness from a couple of runs ago. So I guess you could technically argue that it has trended toward the field. But man, I'm amazed it is so steadfast. It usually jumps quite a bit.
 
Stevo24 said:
If it held any weight at all the local Mets and Weather Channel would be all over it.
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Well, not necessarily. How are you gonna go honk the horn about a 12 inch region wide crippling snow with one model to hang it on? Let’s all be honest, if this was the Euro only they would be discounting it as well.

Edit: I would be if I was them!
 
I'll add this, here in Tennessee the RGEM and before it, the GGEM have insisted on a couple of inches of snow in Tennessee Saturday night and Sunday. The GFS/Euro/UKIE/ICON and NAM have all been off board for that and showing nothing really outside the eastern mountains. Until today, now they are starting to tick up with snow chances and MRX put this out this afternoon. No model but the Canadian showed this 4 days ago. 1000207777.jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
I noticed that too. It's not printing out that widespread foolishness from a couple of runs ago. So I guess you could technically argue that it has trended toward the field. But man, I'm amazed it is so steadfast. It usually jumps quite a bit.
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Only reason it had that insane run of epic amounts is due to the phase it had. The CMC continues to have quite the intense FGEN band that imparts itself right across the SC Coast and so much the attempt to warm 850mb crashes to -3C almost in a flash.

Each model has chosen their respective perspectives.
 
I’ll give the CMC credit, it has absolutely held consistent more than any of these models so far. It also does better with northern stream placement and strength which is the entire engine to this thing. Right now you’ve got the NAM/RGEM/CMC with much better H5 orientations, the GFS isn’t really good but it’s still getting precip back to the southern slopes of the mountains and then you have the ICON/EURO (I will hold off on the UK until it runs here shortly) that are pretty much nada. I’m not really concerned with ensembles at this point, they’re out of their element at this range and personally as pinpoint as these details need to be I don’t trust smoothed means to find and locate those and yes that includes the weenie Canadian ensembles.

Still on the table is the monster we all want and hope for. The CMC is not alone with its H5 progression specifically at this point and time. It had the short range guidance at least in its pocket right now. No matter how much some of you want to dismiss it. Do I think it’s right? I’ll be honest I’ve given up on trying to figure out what this thing is going to do. Even if you get something like the GFS (which as much as I hate to say it, is the middle ground between the camps and likely the most reasonable solution on the table) I do think you’d see more expansive NW side from overrunning doing what it does best and places being able to really rack up due to ratios. Maybe not 8-12” but a nice 2-5” powder is possible with more the further to the coast.

This is just my opinion the way I see it right now.
 
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This is increasing pretty good for us Deep South western areas.
 
bouncycorn said:
Maybe the CMC is actually doing well due to the extra data assimilation over Canada..
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I’ve wondered this myself over the years but was never able to find anything to confirm it. I’d assume we share US RAOB data with them and they do the same with us. I know a lot of the model inputs are satellite based so not sure how that plays a role. I used to have a theory guidance loosing systems in the 5-6 day window only to bring them back inside 72-96 was do to sampling over parts of far Eastern Asia then dead space, then back over NA. Accuracy scores though are a lot better then they were 10-15 years ago.
 
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