Pack up the car and head north to see snow.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Pack up the car and head north to see snow.
astroworld123
Member
How about the Triangle?
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If this keeps going, we're going to have additional energy getting involved. At least two northern stream wildcards are starting to emerge, one early on as @Myfrotho704_ pointed out, then this one.
Downeastnc
Member
Is it just me or is this confusing as hell on which area is which lol
Hahaha me too according to the GFS.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Tail end of the precip shield over the Gulf shifting north
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GFS has taken the sleet line all the way to I-20 today
broken025
Member
It’ll be at 85 by tomorrow
Man going into the big weekend fun times... It legit feels like at moment a 1/3 chance of any of these scenarios
-True coastal slider
-Southern Track miller A * with more expansive qpf on NW side then modeled and mixing issues south
- A legit big dog event
-True coastal slider
-Southern Track miller A * with more expansive qpf on NW side then modeled and mixing issues south
- A legit big dog event
wow
Member
With these trends, it's not good for SAV. You need to hope for suppression. Still on the table!
Ens blend starts become less influential into the short range
Stormsfury
Member
Because the strongest FGEN continues to remain along the coastal Plain with a strip developing in Eastern Half of NC.
The ZR depiction in the Carolinas Coastal Plain argues more sleet than ZR based on soundings before clicking back to snow.
Also the N/S Has been trending slower the last 3 cycles...
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
Member
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You still want to be paying more attention to ensemble products at this range. One deterministic model output at this range is a very long dart throw.
Tail end of the precip shield over the Gulf shifting north
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The hp over Ohio is in a good place.
Tail end of the precip shield over the Gulf shifting north
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GEFS is digging
wow
Member
I hate this storm with all of my being but there's a similarity to Jan 2000, but further west and colder with a stronger PV. It's at the precipice of a phase, but the degree of which won't really be fleshed out until near the event.
This gets even more vexing assuming the euro/AI don’t make any moves toward this gfs/cmc sort of solution. We could be actually going further from a consensus 4 days out if they hold fast
iGRXY
Member
You’re going to start getting more into their wheel house by tomorrow evening into Sunday. Right now it’s good to look at theM at 500mb to see which side of the operational camp they’re likely too lean into and give those a bit more credence potentially
Someone on here is going to have a foot+ from either the RGEM or NAM tomorrow I’m almost sure of itI kind of thought that would have been a bigger run...
rburrel2
Member
The 18z GEFS is already much further west with the trough at hr72. Should be a good run I would think.
To put it simple and maybe this helps but when I’m watching ensembles at this range I start to pay attention to the gradient. When you have the broad color gradient over your house it’s usually a pretty good sign but when they begin to sharpen up and fall off I find I’m on the wrong side of the fun more times than not
Makeitsnow
Member
Without looking at anything else One would think the northwest portion of this precip shield should produce quite well with a radar presentation like that.
Not sure if there is a connection but the gfs is also noticeably warmer with surface temps from Monday afternoon on. It's a good 5 or 6 degrees warmer than even the usually warmer euro. Only the uk is similar. With thickening cloud cover it has my local getting to 38 tue...which is 8 degrees warmer than the euro. This seems unlikely.
Upstream kicker coming in hot.
When the trough finally decides to pick up that southern wave, she's gonna blow.
Either way, it's still too low on QPF. Man, I
the GFS.
wow
Member
Given that we're still seeing bombs and nothings between the members shows how close we are to that edge.
Thats kinda what I figured, so I was feeling pretty great at the 12z GEFS at least. Thanks for the insight!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'd say a vast majority of the majority of these ensemble members are trying here:
Some might still be light though.
Some might still be light though.
A lot less nothings this run it doesn’t look like
Stormsfury
Member
Just to precipice on this, the GFS busted horribly on last Friday's event by a good 6 to 8 degrees for daytime Temps. It did well early Sat AM with the swinging gate warm front in Charleston shooting the Temps into the mid 50s... but during the event even with in-situ cold air, the GFS whiffed by a good margin. I suspect with many areas with dewpoints in the single digits and even below zero, it'll do the same in many locations garnering widespread precipitation.
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like these types of changes at day 4
wow
Member
Now this is from the 0z GEM but it's this fluid movement of the the phase that just makes my eyes pop out when I see it. So close now!
StormWatch
Member
I think there will be a tad more northerly/northwest placement/orientation of the precip. field on tomorrow's runs. It's definitely trending in the right direction given the upper air pattern.
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Now this is from the 0z GEM but it's this fluid movement of the the phase that just makes my eyes pop out when I see it. So close now!
You can see small changes in the Depiction of even the layout of the surface maps ppl post…. It’s trying to Tilt more SW - NE.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
There is almost always a random piece or pieces of energy that emerge in the final 96 hours and impact our look at H5. This time seems no different. One can hope we get a piece of the NS to amp and drop down towards the base of the trough and tilt it
Wouldn’t be sweating QPF too much either way at this stage. Just get the players on the field, then QPF will adjust in the last couple days. With the last storm it seemed to uptick in the run up to verification, so we’ll be hoping to see that again with any potential storm.
I personally feel good about a storm, but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s more of a coastal plain type storm that literally leaves a lot of high and dry. But I think there’s a good shot it comes N/W or at least the precip field is more expansive in that direction.
I personally feel good about a storm, but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s more of a coastal plain type storm that literally leaves a lot of high and dry. But I think there’s a good shot it comes N/W or at least the precip field is more expansive in that direction.
Downeastnc
Member
Upstream kicker coming in hot.
When the trough finally decides to pick up that southern wave, she's gonna blow.
Either way, it's still too low on QPF. Man, I
Agree the models almost always understate the NW precip shield in these setups in this range and always trend more expansive down the stretch. The best part is keeping the low placement and track the same locking in the cold...slowing it down wouldnt hurt my feelings either.
Ahem.. *Cough Cough*
