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Wintry January 21-23 2025

If this comes together as to what the 06z Euro AI is projecting, the system would have long lasting falling precipitation. With the persistent tall western ridge and Bermuda ridge during the forecast period, the system would become frontal like and nearly stalling out (if not completely stalling out), until another trough comes behind the longwave tropospheric PV and then the flow increases momentum. Initially, it's a slow moving upper air flow. The Euro AI shows 24 hours worth of falling precipitation across parts of the southeast, and if that's right, a swath of a foot of snow or possibly more. Also, the surface and 850mb temps. are likely to be colder, so snow rates would be more than 10:1 (We'll see what the 12z Euro AI shows).
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Climatologically the CFS does look spot on with this looking at the upper level, and the SLP low track as well. I think there will be a rise in the 5h heights ahead of the trough and bring this further north.
Yeah, sometimes higher resolution != better forecasts when we are talking about little nuances that are being over amplified/keyed on out there by the higher resolution trouble areas. Especially in the SW.
 
it counts sleet as snow so it was actually spot on in SC/NC here. It did bust to low on the NW side of the storm for Northern Arkansas and Southeastern Kansas/Oklahoma though.
Yeah and it wasn’t so much about the snow footprint / snow maps etc, it was how it locked in early on the eventual 500mb wave evolution / interaction that was complex while the other modeling was bouncing around. It hasn’t been as stable for this storm
 
Icon looks like it’s not gonna be as left behind this run can already tell
Hard to imagine a scenario where more people don’t win here. We’re dropping our wave west of Idaho and sharpening that western ridge while it digs. You would think this would have plenty of time to turn the corner. But maybe not I guess
 
Need to get this system out of here this weekend. See how far this cold air really pushes. Think models will have a good handle on this by Sunday morning or so. We know this song and dance.
Yeah...agreed...the models don't have a clue until Sunday or even Monday. By then we get the sampled stuff in and it will show huge event for the SE.
 
the last time the Canadian caught a dub was with the Jan 21st 2022 system which was northern stream dominated, it kept the wave in a better orientation and won that one out. Maybe it can do it again. But would love to see other guidance go its way
I was thinking about this earlier today but didn’t wanna say it because 🌭

But yeah, that was a fairly cold event by our wintry standards and I remember the RGEM leading the way. I don’t recall if they had much similarity at h5
 
I was thinking about this earlier today but didn’t wanna say it because 🌭

But yeah, that was a fairly cold event by our wintry standards and I remember the RGEM leading the way. I don’t recall if they had much similarity at h5
Yeah, wasn’t that one also in the low 20s during most precip like this one would probably be (if it happens)? And I think most modeling was too suppressed until close in unless I’m mixing it up with another similar system (like January 2014).
 
ICON is the worst operational model and this just proves it. It's definitely trending in the right direction but it is awful.
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That's not even far off at H5 from what the CMC-GFS-EURO shown at 12z.

Problem is it looked like it suppressed the front down to almost the Yucatan .. cue the GFS 2010 jokes.

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Need to load up the base some more and slow it just a little bit. Not impossible at this stage. It’s moving that way

Several options for improvement, loading up the base as you mentioned, quicker evolution east to allow for more interaction with the polar jet, polar jet ejecting quicker east to allow the wave to sharpen as opposed to being flattened over top (18z ICON). Normally you want to see energy coming down through the northern/central Plains with energy ejecting out of the SW.

Certainly need to pay attention to what's going on in ND/SD/MN around the 72-84hr mark. ICON, EC, GFS are shunting that energy through the Lakes, vs CMC and to some extent the UK, trying to drop it further south. The 18z RGEM would likely be best case scenario for a hook-up, pulling down lower hights, increasing moisture transport NW, deeper low, yada yada.

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