If we consistently see the AI suck for a couple of runs then we got issues, but it seems like it made a adjustment at H5 again so it’s not settled yet, same with the EC Gcast.
Not to disparage the AI it did a good job last storm BUT it has been waffling this system a decent bit on upper air features and QPF details not having a solid runs to runs so who knows it's relatively new so lots to learn about it's behaviors
We are at day 4 for the Op Euro...that's tough to overcome. But like the rest...I will watch the models come in and hope the next 24-36 hours.
If it showed a hit would you be saying this?
Way too much faith has been put into the Euro when it has been consistently showing solutions all over the place.
The Op Euro 5h evolution isn't awful though. We just need it to be under modeling the qpf on the back edge, which is something it pretty much always does at this lead time.
one tiny positive detail....notice the SW - NE orientation of the track. Thats something gfs and others have done today too.
You can live and die with the Euro if you choose, but its not wise given the support for a different solution along with climatology. There wont be 1040mb HP sitting in north MS....sorry.
It’s tough no doubt. Euro threw the signal first last week. Now it has fizzled. GFS sucked for a while, now it looks decent. GEM has been steady
Looks like it's tilting more to the left.
Yes, been thru the growing pains of putting all peanuts in run to run OPs runs etc a long time ago but watching ensembles and consistency matter more so then anything during the leadup on last system AI it gets credit mainly because it was pretty stable on that setup and type of event and sorta stuck the same idea the whole time not because it verified after the fact well. It's a different setup so hard to know if it will handle it as well and especially since it has had some variations this time around. The Ensembles for the GFS/Euro still show more hits and upticks on QPF inland so I think that's just as crucial if not more then OP runs
idk this still looks like a foot for wilmington (30 mm)
I don’t think it’s completely ridiculous to think that. I mentioned this earlier but the CMC has a history of performing very well in southeast winter storm when there is a well established Arctic airmass locked in place ahead of it. January 1988 and January 2011 are both good examples
This was 01-28-2014. Think it was in the high 60s the day before in Atlanta
So right now we have the 3 camps as:
Still showing small background improvements too. its not like this is tomm or Sunday ... I mean literally 5 days away. Plus all jokes aside, small improvement each run on H5 ect will eventually add up. Just keep getting first downs and eventually we will chip away and see what happens
It was 60 on 1-27-2014 in Atlanta.
And Columbia looks beautiful
It’ll be interesting to see which camp wins with the storm in the NE. The Rgem/GFS camp is amped while Euro is much further east, and this is less than 72 hours out.
It has been steady as a rock
I sure want it to win not for the snowfall wins but simply to be able decree it superior over all other models for a moment in time... it's the nerdy kids winning prom king scenario
