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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
wouldn't you expect an ensemble to narrow it's precipitation field as it gets closer? it looks fairly consistent to me
packfan98
Moderator
Can you tell if the system is slowing down and keying on the coastal as it's pulling away?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
You can’t unsee it, good trends on the QPF moving further west
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iGRXY
Member
Last edited by a moderator:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That’s solid and has been. The mean continues to increase further inland
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Love the expansion in the GOM.
iGRXY
Member
Euro looks to be entering eastiGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
Still waiting on the other panels to update but this looks better to me
Really like having the wave and the stream over southern canada closer together at hour 66
packfan98
Moderator
Similar to 6z
The euro runs looks slightly shunted south but nowhere near as bad as the icon
You don’t need it all at once but you want to hold consensus here for another 48 hours. A small waver south isn’t a killer. Then you bet the house 72 hours before verification pushing more chips in the closer you get. This is the path to victory in my snow biased eyes
iGRXY
Member
Honestly you can nitpick it but the Euro is right in between the GFS/CMC and ICON/UKIE
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Similar to 6z
We’re still 4-5 days out, I’m not worried…we’re not ready to tie a bow on this thing yet by no means
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
notice how -- has switched his preffered Mod
when GFS SAID NO STORM.....its right and EURO was wrng bc it showed a storm.....now hes flipped. Dude is literally just finding w/e shows the driest for his area and going with that
This is fine. Now hope when they start to converge its more toward the former camp
iGRXY
Member
Regardless of the surface H5 is betterTokenfreak
Member
That's an awesome run. Just need to increase the totals some and we will be set!Similar to 6z
All you need to do on the euro is slow the northern stream trough down just a little bit and you get a CMC like solution. I’d keep this and take my chances with meso models though at this point 
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Right now it is looking like North America technology (gfs and CMC) vs European( Icon UKmet and Euro) for my neck of the woods. I don't usually like those odds in the weather business.
beanskip
Member
Surface temp differences between Euro and Canadian at just 90 hours are crazy -- CMC is 9F-11F colder in places like ATL, TLH and Birmingham.
Serious question - has this part of Florida EVER had an ice storm?
packfan98
Moderator
I'd take my chances of one of these outcomes selected at random from the 12Z Canadian Ensemble members.
More, please.
January 2018 although it wasn’t as crazy as that shows.
It’s certainly rare, though, and gives reason to doubt it verifying as is.
beanskip
Member
There was one in Destin/FWB/Defuniak and nearby areas in, I believe, 2014. Closed all the bridges (which is a lot).
Sooner or later you are going to get a ridge response east with that
Typically northern stream slows when it gets sampled to (look at the last storm and that northern stream kicker for that one). Another good one was 2022
Thor
Member
Just Verbatim looking at this image 100 hours out, you can nitpick but that's a thing of beauty. We will be talking about this one for a while, good or bad.
One thing we all need to appreciate more is this airmass and how strong it is. This is actual Canadian Cold showing up, that in itself is worth celebrating down here. Sure it Suppresses a bit but it's the SE, that's literally what we rely on.
rburrel2
Member
I'm guessing it's not done.
Hopeful. It’s an odd position to be in here. Nobody knows. People are telling us the NW trend doesn’t apply here but we’re not buying it because it applies to the 85 crowd when we’re in the bullseye 5 days out. It’s weather and nobody knows where the fly in the ointment is. But it’s in somebody’s ointment.
When does this piece of energy enter into the model sampling areas?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro looks fine to me. I’d gladly take that look 3-4 days out from an overrunning event
SimeonNC
Member
Welcome New Members!
We just wanted to take a moment and welcome all the new members who have signed up within the last few days.
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Thanks very much for the help here. Please enjoy the company and the interaction throughout the site, and please let the staff know if you need anything. Welcome aboard!
We just wanted to take a moment and welcome all the new members who have signed up within the last few days.
We have a number of topical threads and a couple of banter threads as well (the actual Banter thread and the Complaining thread).
In this thread in particular, we want to keep the discussion flowing well and relevant to storm and pattern analyses.
To ensure that outcome, please try and refrain from the following, both literally and figuratively:
1) How much for (insert location here)?
2) I hate cold and dry
3) The (insert model here) sucks
4)
or any other one-liner emojis or phrases without context5) How bout dem Cowboys?
Thanks very much for the help here. Please enjoy the company and the interaction throughout the site, and please let the staff know if you need anything. Welcome aboard!
You’re getting a gulf response with a 5 day lead. How many times have we seen the dynamics of a storm change at this range?
I’m weenie biased tho so I wouldn’t listen to me. I’m just dissecting guidance out loud
EPS looks improved at h5
