wow
Member
This is more of a fold to the rest of the models but not by much! All about the northern stream interaction.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I think you'll see the canadian and gfs meet in the middle to some degree pretty soon. then the question becomes how far nw do we trend
Cary_Snow95
Member
If we get this exact look come Tuesday, I like our chances. Tilt is slightly worse but at this range it's a wobble
Cmc and gfs pretty darn close tbh
iGRXY
Member
Really like where this is for the 85 corridor as we start getting into short range models lead
beanskip
Member
So on the last storm, the Canadian was considerably colder than the rest of the models -- that didn't really verify, did it? Obviously makes a huge difference in the Florida panhandle/south Georgia/coastal S.C. in terms of cold rain vs. ice/sleet.
Yep for once can watch the Nam and rgem for precip expansion and not sleet line 200m north of globals
iGRXY
Member
Again, with this jet streaking over the Cold air mass, I think it's almost a given there will be more precip on the North side of this
I think the Canadian has issues with surface temps being too low and thus overdoes ice storm amounts. Or at least that used to be an issue and if the last storm is anything to go by, it still is.
Brandon10
Member
i know a lot are talking about the NW trend....but I really dont think the physics allow the actual low to go but so far NW....now, the precip shield will make it appear its trending NW as the surface lines up w the 500 VORT. IMO this is a 50-100 mile off shore NE to ENE slider
The HP is probably just a bit too strong on the GGEM. It's sitting at 1044-1042 during the storm..
It'd probably realize a bit around 1037-1040 on verification time.
we were just a hair off in the phase which is why no mega storm. bad luck in the draw. much more reasonable, attainable solution however that stilll delivers a once in a decades storm for many
Stormsfury
Member
Time to cash out lol.Solid!
The GEM is also a bit slower too by about 3 to 6 hours...
wow
Member
Listen, at less than 4 days out, this is place to be for the I-85 crowd. There is lots of precedence for models to underplay the phasing until we're only 48 hrs away for a setup like this. Getting enough energy injected into it to turn that trough axis neutral and BOOM.
NCWeatherhound
Member
PARSONBROWN
Member
Jason Simpson mentioned 17:1 north central alabama
Completely agree. If we continue to move towards a consensus on the globals, look for amounts to ramp up to the north and west as we approach go time. This isn't even just about precedence or a feeling (which you obviously know), it's about synoptics and mesoscale meteorology. Overrunning is always underdone on globals and especially in the presence of a powerful right entrance region to an upper level jet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Don't think it did poorly here as I really think we stayed freezing precip up to the final couple hours.
I will say I don't think the long term CMC handled well but the short term RGEM handled great it feels like. It locked in on a heavy band once it got in range and held.
lusting4Adusting
Member
If the Canuck ends up scoring the coup for the boardwide mauler, we shall forever name this one the Canadian Crippler.
broken025
Member
GFS tries to get something going off coast on Friday as well
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Seen this movie a time or two
iGRXY
Member
Yeah if the Canadian scores here that undo rep it has kept from 15 years ago needs to stop. There's a reason it has higher verification scores than the GFS. I mean it has shifted a touch here or there at H5 which is perfectly normal, but the wide variations that the EURO/GFS have shown here should make us all temper just how we view each of these models. Still a long way to go before we know of course but the writing is starting to show up on the wall.
Cary_Snow95
Member
The GFS and CMC are basically on top of each other at the surface @ 120. May we finally be coming into a consensus? As other have started I’ll take my chances all day with that look. Short range models will go bananas within 60 hours of go time
And the midlands of SC. Warm nose please stay back.
iGRXY
Member
Long way to go, but this book has been seen a million times. You do NOT want to be in the bullseye at day 3-7. Your heart will get ripped to pieces. Typically it's the 85 or I40 crowd that deals with this, but in this instance.
I wouldn’t mind getting a few more suppressy runs at this lead tbh. You’ve got 4.5 days of trends to go
The GEFS was a big shift west (06z vs 12z)
Stormsfury
Member
The hint of a dual jet structure would agree to that. Both the GFS/CMC have strong to intense FGEN banding right along the Carolina Coast. The GFS obviously looked warmer aloft (ZR coastal), however, soundings looked like a IP/SN sounding (pretty deep cold air dome up to 800mb)...
I think the GEM has the right idea with the much more expansive precip field and the GFS hasn't quite caught on with the upper forcing (it was noted that its usually horrible on FGEN band underestimation).
Brandon10
Member
Lets hope that with the trend in 850s we see the dry air and heavy rates overcome warm nose...doesnt happen often but one could hope.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I'm going back to my forecast videos from last week and we were talking about mixing zone over I-85 by 120 hours out. In this case, the mixing zone is between I-95 and the ocean. I think we'll be okay and in a better position with the rain/snow line this time around (speaking for us central SC/NC folks).
iGRXY
Member
UK looks lockstep thru 45 so far
With all the bs aside, the GGEM has scored well on deep south snows in the past. While it's overly cold and puts out ridiculous zr maps, it isn't a horrible model at 500mb. This time around, it's too strong with the HP probably, but 500mb is being handled well (at least with it's consistency)
This run of the GGEM, it slowed and deepend the southern vort. and it missed the perfect phase by like 6 hours and sheared/pancaked it.
the GFS is known to be too dominant with the northern stream/fast with it.
Split both and you end up with a nice little event for a lot of people.
This run of the GGEM, it slowed and deepend the southern vort. and it missed the perfect phase by like 6 hours and sheared/pancaked it.
the GFS is known to be too dominant with the northern stream/fast with it.
Split both and you end up with a nice little event for a lot of people.
When this switched to more of a northern stream storm, this comes into play. It all comes down to the position of LP off the coast. Too far off the coast you don't have to worry about the warm nose but you also don't get the qpf. Closer to the coast you'll have the high qpf but will have to watch the warm nose. It's a fine line but that's how you get the big storms in central NC.
packfan98
Moderator
I think a small part of the difference is the slower movement of some of the members. Either way, it's definitely juicing up.
