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Wintry January 21-23 2025

rduwx said:
When this switched to more of a northern stream storm, this comes into play. It all comes down to the position of LP off the coast. Too far off the coast you don't have to worry about the warm nose but you also don't get the qpf. Closer to the coast you'll have the high qpf but will have to watch the warm nose. It's a fine line but that's how you get the big storms in central NC.
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True, and that sweet spot is about 10-20miles nw of that transition line for heavy rates
 
superjames1992 said:
This is the kind of map that should have a lot of the board excited 4-5 days out IMO. Of course, it would be nice to have the ICON on board and definitely the Euro.
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We need a bit more precipitation expansion to the NW in order not to exclude some on here. JS But it's looking great for the central/eastern Carolinas, no doubt!
 
WxBlue said:
I'm going back to my forecast videos from last week and we were talking about mixing zone over I-85 by 120 hours out. In this case, the mixing zone is between I-95 and the ocean. I think we'll be okay and in a better position with the rain/snow line this time around (speaking for us central SC/NC folks).
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Sure hope so man
 
NCSNOW said:
Ukmet at 0z had same footprint as GEM and GFS just did at 12z.
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Unfortunately, 12z looks like the icon. I definitely don't want to see any model with at total whiff now.

prateptype_ukmo-imp.conus.png
 
It's good to see the Canadian model and the GFS coming to an agreement with this storm. The look these models are showing would put more people in play for some snow than the southern solution proposed by the Euro. Hopefully the Euro will start a northwest trend with the next run. If the Euro would do that, expectations would by sky high as far as a significant winter weather event.
 
So the models missing the phase and flattening this wave out.. is it just me or are they all having more interaction with that pacific cut off?

The GGEM had more interaction but still left it behind. The GFS had interaction and left it behind.. but the UKMET.. much more interaction and hooked up to it, eventually smashing it too.
 
iGRXY said:
It doesn't even make it to the coast. Just bad run from it honestly
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Yea. You have to know when to toss a bad run, or an unrealistic one for the good. Models will have them....its the trends you have to watch for this far in advance, and the trends today have been great for the I20/I85 crowd from MS to NC.
 
Hopefully this NW trend stops soon or starts trending back. Those of us near the coastal areas do not want freezing rain or an ice storm. A lot of us live in very rural areas and from past experience we know its a nightmare when all these pine trees start snapping and limbs start dropping. We don't want to be without power for days in cold! Hopefully we all can benefit somehow and get some much needed snow.
 
If the signal continues to hold with this SW to NE orientation thru South/Central AL/GA and up into Carolinas people NW of that will really need to pay attention to the Meso and that NW flow because they could keep looking at global and think lesser scale event and end up shocked at end of day
 
Will be interesting to see how low the temperatures get Tuesday night because if there is Lois, some of the models are showing the brine that they put on the roads will not be effective


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Tokenfreak said:
Hopefully this NW trend stops soon or starts trending back. Those of us near the coastal areas do not want freezing rain or an ice storm. A lot of us live in very rural areas and from past experience we know its a nightmare when all these pine trees start snapping and limbs start dropping. We don't want to be without power for days in cold! Hopefully we all can benefit somehow and get some much needed snow.
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Hopefully this storm will be able to walk that fine line that allows sections more west to get the snow they want and insuring that the coastal counties avoid the problems associated with freezing rain. It's a tough balancing act to get everyone what they want with winter weather in the Southeast but lets keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.
 
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