packfan98
Moderator
Wiggle on down EPS. Digging in the west and sharpening up the trough in the east.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
To me over the last day, the EPS has slowly dug the NS trough more SW, the heights are starting to rise along the NE US with the Atlantic bubble ridge 
Goodness... I know some of the folks North & West of this might not like this but what an EPS run.. over 2 inches in the Panhandle
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The SW flow out ahead of the trough is def going more poleward
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WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I noticed the Gefs still has 2nd wave coming on 23rd. maybe it will be farther south and be wintry if it materializes.
packfan98
Moderator
It's definitely starting to take more of the classic Miller A track. More room to turn the corner and go up the coast too it looks like. Long way to go.
iGRXY
Member
Oh trust me, we like this just fine right now
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah still waiting for the snow mean to turn blue over my house. But at h5 it seems to be improving. So I wait.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man this setup looks so much like Jan 28-29 2014… model consensus this far out is almost exactly where it was leading into that event too with the heavier snows forecast near the coast.
Always important to remember tho that sleet “ruins” everything when it comes to some of these big clown maps you might see the next few days
Always important to remember tho that sleet “ruins” everything when it comes to some of these big clown maps you might see the next few days
Euro is probably too compressed to the SE with its precipitation footprint, cmc is probably over amplified, many people are going to be content with the end result
ChattaVOL
Member
Would the light snow near NW GA or SE TN be 15:1 or even higher ratios?
That’s kind of my hope. Normally you can only do so much back to the west if this thing decides to blow up in the Atlantic. But if the amplification happens in the gulf that all changesIt's definitely starting to take more of the classic Miller A track. More room to turn the corner and go up the coast too it looks like. Long way to go.
Seeing the mean now increasing warms my heart.
It’s remarkable to see a 2”+ ensemble mean over a broad swath of the FL panhandle at this lead. Climo argues against it, but who knows with this pattern.
beanskip
Member
It’s not bad news to EVERYBODY on the board!
das a pretty big move
overall the mean increased to the North and West comparing runs for the Euro on the QPF.... So ultimately I expect it will be more expansive to NW and will shift more as weekend comes thru we shall see still will be a good board wide hit with this
rburrel2
Member
FWIW the 12z JMA is in the CMC camp, if not stronger.
It even hammers Northern AL/GA and southeast TN with snow.
It even hammers Northern AL/GA and southeast TN with snow.
General Model Themes:
ICON/UKMet - detaches the NStream a bit and kind of squashes the SW wave / makes it too positive tilt
GFS/Euro - keeps the NStream and SW wave mostly intact, but doesn't sharpen it at the base as it moves east
CMC - same as GFS/Euro, but sharpens the wave at the base as it moves east
AI (Euro & GFS) - it detaches the SW wave like ICON/UKMet, but keeps the wave fairly strong so it still produces a storm, but a day later
The AI bunch is what keeps us (me anyway) from forming a general forecast idea. The worst case scenario is the middle ground where the AI bunch trends toward detaching the SW wave less and falls into the ICON/UKMet group....while the GFS/Euro trend toward detaching the SW wave more, falling into the ICON/UKMet group as well.
That's what's bugging me at the moment
ICON/UKMet - detaches the NStream a bit and kind of squashes the SW wave / makes it too positive tilt
GFS/Euro - keeps the NStream and SW wave mostly intact, but doesn't sharpen it at the base as it moves east
CMC - same as GFS/Euro, but sharpens the wave at the base as it moves east
AI (Euro & GFS) - it detaches the SW wave like ICON/UKMet, but keeps the wave fairly strong so it still produces a storm, but a day later
The AI bunch is what keeps us (me anyway) from forming a general forecast idea. The worst case scenario is the middle ground where the AI bunch trends toward detaching the SW wave less and falls into the ICON/UKMet group....while the GFS/Euro trend toward detaching the SW wave more, falling into the ICON/UKMet group as well.
That's what's bugging me at the moment
JQPublic
Member
I sort of agree b/c it is so dang cold, it's going to hit a wall at some point. The precip is a different thing for sure.
Sctvman
Member
1989 they had half an inch of snow in Jacksonville 2 days before Christmas and it literally shut down the city. Ice? Don’t think that has ever really happened especially in what it predicts
Meanwhile seeing CHS with all these signals for a heavy snow so far away is crazy to see.
rburrel2
Member
I've thought about this as well. But I think what you would hope to see on the Euro AI is if the wave doesn't detach as much, it's a result of the northern trough pulling down and in to it more.... if that's the reason it stays more attached, then you can shift that initial precip shield on the Euro AI to the northwest a good bit... you just won't get the pulse of precip on the backend with the wave sharpening/passing through.
This seems more realistic to me as well. I could see a blossoming shield of light snow pretty far to the West... and that shield doesn't move for several hours before it finally weakens and drifts East.
But who knows... we'll find out soon enough.
bnathanb1982
Member
Some board members could get 42" and would get on here complaining it wasnt 44"
I live in between Athens Ga and Atlanta and most forecasts didn't have
I live in Walton County which is between Atlanta and athens. I remember leading up to that most local forecasters were not forecasting it to come as North as it did to atlanta.
It did which is precisely why it turned into snowmageddon and everybody leaving their cars on the interstates and getting stuck at school and work
rburrel2
Member
Commenting on my last post, that's basically exactly what the 12z GFS is showing now. You'd just hope and think that light snow precip shield will over perform what it's showing thanks to the upper level jet and overrunning being notoriously hard for it to show at this lead time. You can see on these radar panels of the GFS that it's setting up that "stalled edge" of light snow roughly along the TN/NC line, then 6 hours later it's in roughly the same place. We need that precip to trend stronger/better with time, and everything points to that being the case, assuming we get that 5h evolution.
I could also see the back edge of that shield featuring a decent band with moderate snow rates that lays down a widespread 2-4 of powder for most us in the Western/Central sections of NC/SC. That's basically what happened in January 2018.
e.
I could also see the back edge of that shield featuring a decent band with moderate snow rates that lays down a widespread 2-4 of powder for most us in the Western/Central sections of NC/SC. That's basically what happened in January 2018.
e.
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TBH the most important run today is the AIFS given its performance last week
SimeonNC
Member
My fear in a potential NW trend is that areas in the fringe such as CLT, ATL, and RDU lose the potentially high ratios from this event as the 0c 850 line comes closer to us
When will it be out?
iGRXY
Member
Yeah the GFS is a perfect example of this. It’s also too light on the NW side of this.
SimeonNC
Member
Is the jet present on the Euro like it is on the GFS/CMC?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
From what I saw the main reason it did well was it was a lock. As ridiculous as this sounds the CMC being more of a lock and models going towards it makes me say we lean more towards that solution this time.
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As expected, the CMCE mean is ridiculous. 
CMC Ensemble mean snowfall and freezing rain with dynamic ratios
packfan98
Moderator
Can you control the snow ratio? Looks like 15:1 on the north side of the storm is reasonable.
I have never seen the CMCE that high with snow totals ever.
packfan98
Moderator
FYI - This was posted an hour and half ago. Everyone, please make sure the information and graphics you wish to post hasn't already been posted. Thanks!
Mahomeless
Member
Oh we absolutely love this look right now!
lexxnchloe
Member
packfan98
Moderator
From what I could see, .4" of the precip in N Alabama and N GA come prior to our storm.