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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That is so Feb '73 it's almost startling
Tim Buckley in the Triad usually has pretty good takes
Cad Wedge NC
Member
We can laugh, but it has been locked on to that solution for days. What would be the likelihood that it is the outcome? It does have CMCE support (even though that's not saying much)
That’s bold. Going rain up the coast. I’m here for a forecast like this
Tokenfreak
Member
This is what the Weather Channel currently shows...but of course subject to change.
Stormlover
Member
Very likely because it is a more coarse resolution, its ignoring some of the "hang ups" and nuances screwing with the energy dropping in under the Northern stream.
Basically, it is smoothing everything out and focused on timing and angle.
I think it's damn near where we end up when it is all said and done at 500mb. Amounts, I can't say, but 500mb I feel it.
Not to get too out of pocket in the main thread but they had this same graphic last week for east Texas showing 8-10” through a broad area and the storm ended up taking those totals north to Little Rock and Eastern OklahomaThis is what the Weather Channel currently shows...but of course subject to change.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP has put a 30% chance of snow in my forecast for Tuesday night with a low in the lower teens.
Have to love the wispy pastels. So Bob Ross
Someone is obviously buying the GEPS.
How does the CFS do at closer ranges usually? I know it’s more of a long range forecasting tool, but I’ve never really looked at it in the shorter range to even get a sense of how it does.
Tokenfreak
Member
Yeah I'm not surprised. I feel like they over hype it up somewhat too
Mahomeless
Member
Well we can sure see what camp the WPC is in….and honestly, they are some of the last Mets who actually analyze every aspect, including analogs and climatology. Broadcast Mets these days are simply model watchers posting on social media as fast as they can.
astroworld123
Member
Asking for those w less expertise what I gather from this is that the European models are more suppressed right now but the others are the same as before?
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northeast trend?
Mahomeless
Member
Just north….but because of the orientation of the upper levels, it translated into a further north and east snow footprint. SLP’s trend north due to over modeled HP’s, and the precip fields trend NW due to under modeled overrunning when the flow is out of the SW at mid levels.
I yeah they just went with a wide swath which leans more into what CMC/GFS recently are cooking up... I am not sure what 100% there logic is but I can bet a couple of things...
1. CMC climo advantage to this cold air and consistency so far
2. Jan.28th 14' Snowmageddon weighs heavily many models 3-4 days out had that as discussed being a southernly tracked system and qpf and track ended up being much more expansive to the north then anticipated
packfan98
Moderator
They usually factor in the NW trend. We've laughed in the past about how far north they will have these zones and low pressures depicted. They usually end up more correct.
Its sorta misleading but the whole SE is in Hazardous cold 1/20 to 1/22 and then Easterly another one states 1/20 to 1/23 so a day longer so actually separate hazard
Yeah they must be considering some sort of partial phase type deal if they are dragging the heavy snow line that far NW. This is not Central Florida low track guidance. And it can’t be strictly a GFS/Euro blend bc none of those show heavy snow that far northwest. Unless I just don’t understand how this thing works. And I might not
iGRXY
Member
From what I can tell (on my phone) the NAM looks east with the vort through 63
packfan98
Moderator
NWS Afternoon Discussion out of Raleigh
Precipitation wise, there still appears to be potential for a winter
system primarily Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there is
still considerable uncertainty wrt to pattern evolution and
consequently snow chances for our area. The ECMWF has been the most
consistent model thus far, simulating a mostly open wave that scoots
off the southeast coast during this time. This scenario would
promote very little snow accumulation for our area, confining any
higher amounts along the coast. The deterministic CMC and the 06
and 12Z GFS runs are much more bullish developing a legit coastal
low which would promote better snow chances for much of central NC.
However, the GFS in particular has been quite inconsistent with this
system, and in fact looked more similar to the ECWMF solution just
12 hours earlier at the 00Z January 17 run (i.e. little to no snow,
mostly confined to the coast). Given the inconsistencies and
disagreement this far out, kept POPs similar to the ensemble mean
probabilities for measurable QPF (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS all have
generally 40 to 60% Tuesday night).
Beyond Wednesday, models are hinting at another potential system
Friday, but it`s too far out to get into any details at this point.
Precipitation wise, there still appears to be potential for a winter
system primarily Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there is
still considerable uncertainty wrt to pattern evolution and
consequently snow chances for our area. The ECMWF has been the most
consistent model thus far, simulating a mostly open wave that scoots
off the southeast coast during this time. This scenario would
promote very little snow accumulation for our area, confining any
higher amounts along the coast. The deterministic CMC and the 06
and 12Z GFS runs are much more bullish developing a legit coastal
low which would promote better snow chances for much of central NC.
However, the GFS in particular has been quite inconsistent with this
system, and in fact looked more similar to the ECWMF solution just
12 hours earlier at the 00Z January 17 run (i.e. little to no snow,
mostly confined to the coast). Given the inconsistencies and
disagreement this far out, kept POPs similar to the ensemble mean
probabilities for measurable QPF (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS all have
generally 40 to 60% Tuesday night).
Beyond Wednesday, models are hinting at another potential system
Friday, but it`s too far out to get into any details at this point.
iGRXY
Member
Tsappfrog20
Member
Nam through 75
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AI euro at an even closer range for the last storm. I’d like to see the 4-6” that Fayetteville got, or the nw Piedmont getting less than the southern third of the state. We ain’t done
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Normally I would agree, but not this time. Still don't think we have seen the final outcome. Pressures that are modeled on the Euro at this range are still too high. There will be different looks at we move forward.... just my opinion.
JMB
Member
Exactly. Or the 3 I got south of I-20. Speaking in absolutes like “ball game” never a good idea.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Eden NC (Rockingham county near the VA border)got about 6 inches of snow out of that one
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Forevertothee
Member
Update from CAE
he extremely cold, dry arctic airmass will settle into the forecast
area by Monday with high and low temps running 20+ degrees below
average, with surface dew points into the single digits or below 0
F. Depending on the timing of the surface winds, we will likely
approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Monday morning and
again Tuesday morning as wind chills fall into the low-mid teens. EC
EFI and NAEFS continues to show this airmass with a characteristic
"highly anomalous but likely not historic" signal.
Things start to move quickly as we get into Tuesday afternoon with
the much discussed winter system. The strong surface high will sink
south and east into the central US as the broad mid-upper level
trough drags into the GoM. The corresponding surface low that will
develop across the northern GoM will slide due eastward into Florida
and then up the Carolina coast. Overall, guidance has trended
slightly more northwesterly with the expected low track and brings
the precip shield further into eastern GA and SC. As of the 12z runs
on Friday, there is notably more guidance consensus and confidence
in some wintry precip impacts across portions of eastern SC and
southeast GA. However, the extent of these impacts are quite
uncertain, with a large spectrum from nuisance to disruptive
possible. Based on the climatology and typical model biases, there
is a northward cap on how far the precip shield should be able to
lift into SC based on the positioning and strength of the surface
high in the TN Valley. So a suppressed low with higher chances for
snow-wintry precip along I-20 and I-95, as compared to I-85, remains
favored. But the typical northwestward drift in cyclogenesis across
guidance remains possible as models come into better depictions of
the surface high position and strength. Additionally, like we saw in
the last wintry precip event, guidance will uniformly struggle in
depicting the strength and timing of the warm advection along the
developing warm front aloft and this adds some uncertainty in precip
type, especially closer to the coast. Its too far out for any
specifics on impacts, but its worth noting the potential for an
impactful winter storm.
So confidence is increasing in at least minor impacts,especially
south of I-20, but until the synoptic scale flow is resolved better
aloft (hopefully Saturday or Sunday), specifics on the extent will
remain unclear. Regardless of any wintry precip impacts, an
impactful cold airmass will settle into the area through Thursday.
High temps will remain in the 30`s for multiple days in a row along
with overnight lows in the teens. So frozen pipes and related
impacts are expected from Monday onward.
he extremely cold, dry arctic airmass will settle into the forecast
area by Monday with high and low temps running 20+ degrees below
average, with surface dew points into the single digits or below 0
F. Depending on the timing of the surface winds, we will likely
approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Monday morning and
again Tuesday morning as wind chills fall into the low-mid teens. EC
EFI and NAEFS continues to show this airmass with a characteristic
"highly anomalous but likely not historic" signal.
Things start to move quickly as we get into Tuesday afternoon with
the much discussed winter system. The strong surface high will sink
south and east into the central US as the broad mid-upper level
trough drags into the GoM. The corresponding surface low that will
develop across the northern GoM will slide due eastward into Florida
and then up the Carolina coast. Overall, guidance has trended
slightly more northwesterly with the expected low track and brings
the precip shield further into eastern GA and SC. As of the 12z runs
on Friday, there is notably more guidance consensus and confidence
in some wintry precip impacts across portions of eastern SC and
southeast GA. However, the extent of these impacts are quite
uncertain, with a large spectrum from nuisance to disruptive
possible. Based on the climatology and typical model biases, there
is a northward cap on how far the precip shield should be able to
lift into SC based on the positioning and strength of the surface
high in the TN Valley. So a suppressed low with higher chances for
snow-wintry precip along I-20 and I-95, as compared to I-85, remains
favored. But the typical northwestward drift in cyclogenesis across
guidance remains possible as models come into better depictions of
the surface high position and strength. Additionally, like we saw in
the last wintry precip event, guidance will uniformly struggle in
depicting the strength and timing of the warm advection along the
developing warm front aloft and this adds some uncertainty in precip
type, especially closer to the coast. Its too far out for any
specifics on impacts, but its worth noting the potential for an
impactful winter storm.
So confidence is increasing in at least minor impacts,especially
south of I-20, but until the synoptic scale flow is resolved better
aloft (hopefully Saturday or Sunday), specifics on the extent will
remain unclear. Regardless of any wintry precip impacts, an
impactful cold airmass will settle into the area through Thursday.
High temps will remain in the 30`s for multiple days in a row along
with overnight lows in the teens. So frozen pipes and related
impacts are expected from Monday onward.
Yeah, it did reasonably well with the last storm and was consistent, but I think its performance with it is being a tad overrated now. Like you said, if you used it a day out you’d have ended up with a pretty off forecast (based on the maps I’ve seen, at least).
it could very well end up being right this time. I just don’t think it’s smart to write this one off because of it
Are you ever positive in anything you post? Very grinding
rburrel2
Member
it counts sleet as snow so it was actually spot on in SC/NC here. It did bust to low on the NW side of the storm for Northern Arkansas and Southeastern Kansas/Oklahoma though.
Pretty good take here
“a suppressed low with higher chances for
snow-wintry precip along I-20 and I-95, as compared to I-85, remains
favored. But the typical northwestward drift in cyclogenesis across
guidance remains possible as models come into better depictions of
the surface high position and strength.”
Well it whiffed for most of NC still then. Either way it’s probably not the best comparison since we have different setups. I just tire of cancelling storms twice a day