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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Stormsfury said:
The 2/12/10 storm had an anomalous -AO/-NAO setup. The airmass was quite cold, but early next week's airmass is progged to be much colder than that. (Cross polar flow connection sourced from Siberia).

Couple things also to note is just how prolonged cold it's been really since December 2024. Nearshore SST's along the Gulf and the SE Atlantic Coasts are way below normal. I would tend to think that also would tend to force the baroclinic zone further offshore (western Wall of the Gulf Stream would be the natural battleground).

I would lend to think that a Central FL to offshore possibly similar to the Feb 2010 event is probably the most likely outcome.
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If I remember correctly, the storm track really didn’t trend NW the last couple days. It was more a deal where 36 hours out, the short term models started to recognize that the moisture was going to be much more expansive to the NW. I remember that because my NWS point forecast went from the afternoon update on 2/9 with a chance of flurries to the morning update on 2/10 a WAA for 1-2” to the late morning update an upgrade to WSW for 2-4”. I ended up with 5.2”. There was still significant snow with that all the way down to Mobile.
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
Supposedly it's great with physics so it would be nice to have it get to reality so we can get a picture of how it would handle a phase.
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don't want to come across as diminishing it too much, it's a real model and it's nice when it's part of the consensus but it showing an unfavorable solution is not a death knell to me
 
Chazwin said:
If I remember correctly, the storm track really didn’t trend NW the last couple days. It was more a deal where 36 hours out, the short term models started to recognize that the moisture was going to be much more expansive to the NW. I remember that because my NWS point forecast went from the afternoon update on 2/9 with a chance of flurries to the morning update on 2/10 a WAA for 1-2” to the late morning update an upgrade to WSW for 2-4”. I ended up with 5.2”. There was still significant snow with that all the way down to Mobile.
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Exactly, the track and at that time, the EURO when it was nicknamed the King for a reason never wavered off a Central FL crossing. Only adjustments I needed to make was for a northward expansion of the precip shield and increase amounts in the Midlands and inland costal counties. I did analog searching and couldn't find one single match at that time due to the anomalous pattern. That was a fun storm
 
GFS had virtually no snow for the MA to NE for the Sunday/Monday deal about 48 hours ago...now violence north

trend-gfs-2025011712-f060.snku_024h-imp.conus.gif


Meanwhile...the CMC has been locked in over that timeframe...and I'm not just saying that because the CMC is giving Raleigh 6" for next Wed...

trend-gdps-2025011700-f072.snku_024h-imp.conus.gif
 
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