6z AIFS had a nice NW jog 
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
The 2/12/10 storm had an anomalous -AO/-NAO setup. The airmass was quite cold, but early next week's airmass is progged to be much colder than that. (Cross polar flow connection sourced from Siberia).This was the low track for the 2/12/10 storm, I think the cold press is better for this one but this is what you want for snow well into the Deep South
Couple things also to note is just how prolonged cold it's been really since December 2024. Nearshore SST's along the Gulf and the SE Atlantic Coasts are way below normal. I would tend to think that also would tend to force the baroclinic zone further offshore (western Wall of the Gulf Stream would be the natural battleground).
I would lend to think that a Central FL to offshore possibly similar to the Feb 2010 event is probably the most likely outcome.
I'm curious if the SER plays in to why the 0z GEM was the bomb it was? The ridge appeared to build in a little further west sooner and imo, helped it go neutral to negative at the perfect time. Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than me can answer. Does anyone have any thoughts? For my own educational purposes.
EDIT: Or is the ridging because it's going neutral to negative?
EDIT: Or is the ridging because it's going neutral to negative?
Tokenfreak
Member
Ugg that doesn't look that nice at all with all the ice now for the deep south in the coastal regions lol
Snowlover34
Member
Thanks just trying to stay positive and keep hope alive for us folks up this way.
Stormsfury
Member
The WAR poked up as a response to what was happening with the longwave trough.
I think you are correct, @SD has said numerous times over the years sometimes you need a little SER
Yea in years past we are praying for everything to go right to have a chance at 1-3” before a changeover to sleet. Just basking in the glory that is having a lotto ticket with a chance 4 days out
iGRXY
Member
ICON is further east with our Wave
Good
Venture to say the ICON will not bury the energy in the southwest this run, and continue bringing it east. Only through 60hrs, but you can already see some changes compared to say the 0z CMC, which was sharper with the short-wave and TPV in a better position to have a go.
iGRXY
Member
I like this better even if it doesn't dig as far west initially
Hopefully not the start of a shift at 12z
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Something to remember though the icon has been digging so much it’s actually having a negative impact. It causes it to get left behind and flattens
iGRXY
Member
Bit of a change here very gfs like
iGRXY
Member
This is better. It's been flattening out too much because it's too far west. It's interacting more with the N/S
iGRXY
Member
Trough is better oriented.
Yeah good shouts. I hadn’t really looked at the last few runs but you’re right it was getting real stretched out. Hopefully this is better
iGRXY
Member
Quite a bit better.beanskip
Member
ICON gives an inch or so to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP).
Through 96hrs at H5, solid run, should split the difference between the more amped solutions and flatter ones. N/S is a little late.
Edit: of course I say that and surface does not respond, although at 500mb it was certainly an improvement over it's previous 2 runs
Edit: of course I say that and surface does not respond, although at 500mb it was certainly an improvement over it's previous 2 runs
iGRXY
Member
That's a step towards the better at H5 regardless if the surface looks worse
beanskip
Member
12z ICON a complete whiff -- maybe some sleet pellets in Ocala.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks suppressed at hr 114.
welllp
Good lord
A tiny bit of SW flow...better than due west. Guess the results didn't matter. Eh
Yeah, don’t bother looking at the ICON snow map unless you’re an oil rig worker
ForsythSnow
Moderator
To the value it has, the RGEM has almost the same energy placement as the 0Z CMC does at 84. Might be getting another weenie run at 12z on the CMC.
rburrel2
Member
The 84hr RGEM looks like it's going to hold serve with the 00z CMC.
folks its the icon
Tokenfreak
Member
No snow could still be a possibility it seems.
Icon went about 600 miles east with the western/ southern wave but that still puts it behind the northern stream so it's a dud. The fact it jumped a time zone east should be the positive not the lack of anything on the sfc map given it was way off on qpf with the last one anyway