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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

KyloG said:
It’s been 3 years since Raleigh has had measurable snowfall…this isn’t how I wanted that streak to end. 🤦‍♂️

Meanwhile Alabama to GA it snows every winter. 🤯

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We haven't had a substantial snow since 2020, we're overdue.

I'm hoping to see some reversal on trends today or new data to roll in as our energy comes ashore, but not the other direction so much.
 
ForsythSnow said:
We haven't had a substantial snow since 2020, we're overdue.

I'm hoping to see some reversal on trends today or new data to roll in as our energy comes ashore, but not the other direction so much.
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You got snow 2 years ago. You guys been doing great and now this. Congrats. 💪


 
ForsythSnow said:
We haven't had a substantial snow since 2020, we're overdue.

I'm hoping to see some reversal on trends today or new data to roll in as our energy comes ashore, but not the other direction so much.
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ditto. So much can change in everyone’s favor. Thanks for this reality check!!
 
KyloG said:
You got snow 2 years ago. You guys been doing great and now this. Congrats. 💪


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Just a bit over an inch here on that system. A real snow is 2.5" or more. I'm hoping for a change on the modeling as mentioned, but FFC here is saying 5 inches now with a 0.1 glaze after. About 1 inch of QPF too.

What I am seeing is the past few runs the QPF shield is moving slightly north but the tilt is all wrong. We need to go back to amping it up some. That will really push the FGEN band and pull in more moisture to the Carolinas.
 
packfan98 said:
So much potential before it dries up. I still think there’s a chance that the initial band could be enhanced along the I-85 corridor, but that relies on timing, angles, and luck.
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Let's hope the hi res models over the next 24 hrs pick up on some details to show a more robust qpf. The NAMs are certainly more juiced, I know it's the NAM but since it's last update it seems to recently be the drier solution and catches up to qpf closer we get to go time, so seeing it more juiced this early is promising. Now of course this comes with p-type issues but I think we'd take our chances with that at this point.
 
I can think of a handful of times in the last few years where QPF was under modeled until go time when HRRR started to pick up returns. What are the odds that happens again this time?


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RAH favors a more progressive northern stream, leading to a slower changeover from sn -> zr. But they also say it is plausible that the warm nose lifts into Central NC quicker than expected.

Latest forecast leaned more heavily on this
solution and results in a longer period of all snow with a
transition to wintry mix Sat morning as dry air aloft shuts off ice
crystal growth.
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A very important caveat is that the other most plausible scenario
results in a very different outcome for central NC. This pattern
features a slower evolving mid/upper pattern (impacts late Fri night
into Sat afternoon) and results in the warm nose aloft lifting
deeper into central NC, shifting the mostly snow regime to along and
north of the I-85 corridor, and introducing a greater freezing rain
threat south of the I-85 corridor.
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6Z update through a Triad lense:

Precip Type: All models, except one at 6z: Icon, Nam, Euro, RDPS keep the precip type all snow here.
The only one that doesn't is the GFS:

Track: The big window to continue to monitor is down to Hour 66-75 now on the models. This is where the GFS, ever so slightly still insist on a 3 hour jog up the Chattahooche, before making a 90 degree right hand turn toward Macon, then a NE turn up off the Carolina coast. This is the reason why it changes the p type here and the other models don't. Gets to close and causes to much SE fetch WAA up above us. The good news is the Icon, Nam, RDPS keep us all snow, because they keep a NE heading from Florida Gulf coast through south GA, exiting Savannah south. That line is the benchmark for any wave to stay at or south of here in order to avoid mixing, p type issues. They all are pretty close to this line, but never cross and we stay all snow as of now. So biggest thing to watch.

QPF: Amazing how important this has reared up here the past 24 hours. All models at 6Z spit out .35-.49 qpf here in northern Randolph county. Thats plenty enough to meet a Winter Storm Warning criteria. Not to shabby and that something I hope verifies, hopefully beefs up another tenth to two tenths of an inch today.

My gut feeling at the moment is we can net between .3-.6 max qpf here. But it's qpf that I have the least confidence in at the moment
Ironically, I'm very confident that whatever falls is all frozen, We will see mostly, if not all snow as well. That track from hr 66-75 will determine that p type question and it will be Thursday after 12z before that question gets settled for good. perhaps as we nowcast Friday
 
I find it interesting the NWS offices are relatively increasing their favorability for more snow while the modeling had been going back and forth. Hoping they're right about the amounts this time around or close, or are seeing something else. Let's get some good trends today!

I've also not seen much of the euro AI snow maps so I'd have to wonder if it's holding still. It'd be good to keep tabs on it until verification hour.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Makes sense. Timing has it arriving first to SW N.C.
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I could see watches being issued for the Foothills later today or tonight. Just like you said those areas will receive the precipitation first and normally they issue watches 48 hours prior. I think we still look good I could see precipitation possibly increase along the escarpment and immediate Foothills due to lift ECT.
 
albertwilsonjr said:



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I would really pay close attention to this model, especially with this coming from an overrunning set up. It did a great job picking up the snow and sleet across northern NC on Sunday afternoon when most other modeling was having that band develop north up into VA
 
ForsythSnow said:
I find it interesting the NWS offices are relatively increasing their favorability for more snow while the modeling had been going back and forth. Hoping they're right about the amounts this time around or close, or are seeing something else. Let's get some good trends today!

I've also not seen much of the euro AI snow maps so I'd have to wonder if it's holding still. It'd be good to keep tabs on it until verification hour.
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It’s the coldest model atm IMG_3510.pngIMG_3511.pngIMG_3512.pngIMG_3513.png
 
griteater said:
Was going to say - that’s the coldest AI run I’ve seen in days

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I'd have to wonder how it's verifying further west on energy and placements currently and what it's doing differently to achieve that result compared to the other runs. Does it see a specific interaction the others aren't or hallucinating?
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd have to wonder how it's verifying further west on energy and placements currently and what it's doing differently to achieve that result compared to the other runs. Does it see a specific interaction the others aren't or hallucinating?
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Out of all models it has the strongest northern stream injection and the most suppressed height field
 
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