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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

I hate to nitpick but If Gainesville to Hartwell to anderson only gets a dusting to 1 inch this system would be a major bust. No guidance shows so little so not sure where he's getting that from.
He's based in Central NC so that I wouldn't read much into the SC and GA forecast
 
Fairly typical overrunning event here in the SE US on Friday.

Mid-level warm advection and isentropic upglide are the main forcing mechanisms for generating precip here.

Both are staples of southern slider events like this.

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I really think this is what the Carolinas need to focus on here going forward. I hope that the models are doing the typical bias of underestimating the lift and QPF this can generate
 
What's odd is the Euro/ICON/Euro AI don't have the warm nose at 700mb for the upstate. they're all -2 to -3C for the whole event.

The GFS/NAM/RGEM are al locked in on a 1 or 2C warm nose poking in there around 5-7pm.
 
Between model runs and since I bit the bullet on renewing my Pivotal subscription lol, let's analyze everything. Actually like the slightest adjustment on the 06z UKMET (only goes out to 66) but can see the upper part of the trough going more neutral, little more separation from the baja crap and slight improvement on qpf map as well as a result.

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What's odd is the Euro/ICON/Euro AI don't have the warm nose at 700mb for the upstate. they're all -2 to -3C for the whole event.

The GFS/NAM/RGEM are al locked in on a 1 or 2C warm nose poking in there around 5-7pm.

Some of that is the pattern looks a little different on those other models, but the euro is just dog water with warm noses and CAD in general. Tried to keep most of central VA snow during this last winter storm and that obviously didn’t pan out.
 
Euro AI continues to be the fastest with precip arrival too. It hasn't waivered from that. Has snow starting in Clemson,SC at 7am Friday and has a couple inches on the ground by 1pm.

Most other models don't start until 10am-noon and accumulations not starting until around 1pm or so.
 
Some of that is the pattern looks a little different on those other models, but the euro is just dog water with warm noses and CAD in general. Tried to keep most of central VA snow during this last winter storm and that obviously didn’t pan out.
Yea I'm counting on a flip to sleet late Friday afternoon here. Just hoping it's only after the best rates are finishing up.
 
Yea I'm counting on a flip to sleet late Friday afternoon here. Just hoping it's only after the best rates are finishing up.

Usually we get our best burst of snow in these events right before the changeover from snow to sleet

The melting snow on the leading edge of the warm nose aloft partially offsets the mid level warm advection, so you get enhanced frontogenesis there just on the cold side of the warm nose, favoring heavier rates right before it flips to sleet
 
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Hey Eric, will you be putting out a guess map for the Carolinas?


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Yeah I plan to at some point, just been so busy here dealing with this winter storm upstream in New Mexico. Also going to work on the post event map for a few days ago when I get a chance
 
Euro AI continues to be the fastest with precip arrival too. It hasn't waivered from that. Has snow starting in Clemson,SC at 7am Friday and has a couple inches on the ground by 1pm.

Most other models don't start until 10am-noon and accumulations not starting until around 1pm or so.
I really think with the soil temperatures that we have now and the fact that we’ve still get two nights with temperatures down in the upper teens to lower 20s, that snow will start sticking basically from the start. Also that sun angle is still low as well
 
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