Makeitsnow
Member
I suppose he's got the rgem on his so I can't say "no guidance" but the vast majority shows these areas doing quite well with at least 2 to 4
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
albertwilsonjr
Member
Nws upping their original totals in sc
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rburrel2
Member
Getting late to be using ensemble means but anyways:
Clemson, SC
06z EPS: 3.4 inches, up from 3.3
06z GEFS: 4.0 inches, up from 3.8
00z CMCE: 3.0 inches, down from 3.7
03zSREF: 4.4 inches, down from 6.3
ICON/GFS/Euro/NAM are all between 2.8-4.0 as well.
Clemson, SC
06z EPS: 3.4 inches, up from 3.3
06z GEFS: 4.0 inches, up from 3.8
00z CMCE: 3.0 inches, down from 3.7
03zSREF: 4.4 inches, down from 6.3
ICON/GFS/Euro/NAM are all between 2.8-4.0 as well.
Not gonna lie, this is concerning. This is getting into the RGEM’s wheel house.
Seems to have an earlier onset for us too. If that’s right then you and I should have 1-2” on the ground by early evening Friday
Stormlover
Member
Stormlover
Member
RGEM and Canadian overdue freezing rain big time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fairly typical overrunning event here in the SE US on Friday.
Mid-level warm advection and isentropic upglide are the main forcing mechanisms for generating precip here.
Both are staples of southern slider events like this.
Mid-level warm advection and isentropic upglide are the main forcing mechanisms for generating precip here.
Both are staples of southern slider events like this.
NEGaweather
Member
I thinkin Georgia the mix transition zone will be north metro along lake Lanier. That’s where I think the heavier bands will set up. So the 85 corridor as usual
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It’s not necessarily the freezing rain maps, but the thermals. I haven’t paid attention recently, but Ive watched the RGEM school the other short range models in the past.
I really think this is what the Carolinas need to focus on here going forward. I hope that the models are doing the typical bias of underestimating the lift and QPF this can generate
rburrel2
Member
What's odd is the Euro/ICON/Euro AI don't have the warm nose at 700mb for the upstate. they're all -2 to -3C for the whole event.
The GFS/NAM/RGEM are al locked in on a 1 or 2C warm nose poking in there around 5-7pm.
The GFS/NAM/RGEM are al locked in on a 1 or 2C warm nose poking in there around 5-7pm.
12z today wouldn’t be a terrible time to start seeing a few models start to rejoin the amp camp if you’re wanting the most bang for your buck come Friday.
Between model runs and since I bit the bullet on renewing my Pivotal subscription lol, let's analyze everything. Actually like the slightest adjustment on the 06z UKMET (only goes out to 66) but can see the upper part of the trough going more neutral, little more separation from the baja crap and slight improvement on qpf map as well as a result.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some of that is the pattern looks a little different on those other models, but the euro is just dog water with warm noses and CAD in general. Tried to keep most of central VA snow during this last winter storm and that obviously didn’t pan out.
rburrel2
Member
Euro AI continues to be the fastest with precip arrival too. It hasn't waivered from that. Has snow starting in Clemson,SC at 7am Friday and has a couple inches on the ground by 1pm.
Most other models don't start until 10am-noon and accumulations not starting until around 1pm or so.
Most other models don't start until 10am-noon and accumulations not starting until around 1pm or so.
rburrel2
Member
Yea I'm counting on a flip to sleet late Friday afternoon here. Just hoping it's only after the best rates are finishing up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Usually we get our best burst of snow in these events right before the changeover from snow to sleet
The melting snow on the leading edge of the warm nose aloft partially offsets the mid level warm advection, so you get enhanced frontogenesis there just on the cold side of the warm nose, favoring heavier rates right before it flips to sleet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I wouldn’t worry about that here given what’s forcing this precip.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Hey Eric, will you be putting out a guess map for the Carolinas?
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta hasn’t seen an inch of snow since 2017 and has not seen 3 inches of snow since 2011. The city will find a way to stay mostly IP/ZR.
NEGaweather
Member
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I plan to at some point, just been so busy here dealing with this winter storm upstream in New Mexico. Also going to work on the post event map for a few days ago when I get a chance
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely gets the right idea here that this storm is respectable but nothing crazy in the Carolinas, but a much bigger deal over TN, northern AL & MS, as well as Arkansas
belowfreezing
Member
What happens to our moisture once it hit's the Carolinas? Is there a chance this is being forecasted too low?
Ron Burgundy
Member
Grid forecast is looking pretty sweet this AM
I really think with the soil temperatures that we have now and the fact that we’ve still get two nights with temperatures down in the upper teens to lower 20s, that snow will start sticking basically from the start. Also that sun angle is still low as well
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Maybe 4 am Friday?
It varies by model but basically early 4-8am Friday
Ron Burgundy
Member
That 8-10” stripe creeping into WGA is intriguing
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I agree if we're focusing on the higher ratios (bigger storm), but I did like how the 2" mark stabilized in S. Virginia. 2-3" of snow would be a win in my book.
NWS Atlanta coming out swinging with the totals 
That’s early enough to miss work, nice!
It always seems too due to multitude of factors timing, elevation, frontogenesis in big storms a small stretch on the west side always gets a surprise bump in snow.
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I think it's a really good sign that RGEM/12k NAM is a mostly all snow/sleet event from roughly north and west of 85. 3k should be in range by the 0z runs.
Trending south and colder with the west to east slider look while others are blasting the warm nose north and east. Take a blend I guess or maybe the new kid on the block scores???