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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

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BufordWX said:
Forecast snowfall map from FFC. I think this is a resonable starting point based on what we see right now, but I would not be surprised to see these totals increase especially in far north GA. Also this only goes through 7 PM Friday.
View attachment 161152
Click to expand...
This map is a bit confusing. Rome and Jasper are shaded in the 2-3" area but it says 1-2". Trenton is shaded in the 3-4" area but it says 1-3".
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS looks okay. Better the last run. Apparently sleep meds aren’t making me sleepy View attachment 161158
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Fro you think we see some trends back more juicy? I’ve seen a bit of people saying we tend to trend back in the 24-36hr time frame. I also wonder if we see the meso models crank back up some as we get closer. I feel like we’re in that weird range where we’re at the end of globals and ensembles being able to get ahold of everything but still a little too far for mesos to point out all the small details especially east of the apps as we’re still about 60ish hours till go time.
 
Ethan80963 said:
Fro you think we see some trends back more juicy? I’ve seen a bit of people saying we tend to trend back in the 24-36hr time frame. I also wonder if we see the meso models crank back up some as we get closer. I feel like we’re in that weird range where we’re at the end of globals and ensembles being able to get ahold of everything but still a little too far for mesos to point out all the small details especially east of the apps as we’re still about 60ish hours till go time.
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It’s possible. I’d like to see some positive trends at H5 for more forcing. If not it’s gonna come down to banding from the leftover forcing and they’ll be some winners but some really bad losers aka spots that do well and spots that don’t meso wise
 
Winter Storm Watch

Effective Jan 10, 2025 at 07:00Expires at Jan 11, 2025 at 07:00

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* WHAT... A wintry mix of precipitation is possible. Snow and sleet accumulations in the mountains could average between three to six inches with locally higher amounts possible. Further south to the Interstate 20 corridor, a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain is likely. Snow accumulations of two to four inches is possible with icing amounts around a tenth of an inch possible.



* WHERE... Portions of north central, northeast, northwest, and west central Georgia.

* WHEN... From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS... Plan on slippery road conditions, with travel likely becoming difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday commute and linger into Saturday morning. Bridges and overpasses could become icy even if temperatures remain slightly above freezing.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this hazardous situation. Any slight deviations in temperatures or track of the weather system will result in changes for the precipitation type forecast.
 
Totals will overachieve in real time compared to whatever models show. For example, if one model run shows 1-2 inches for your location, I’d add an extra inch or so to that. The lack of talk in general on how easy everything will stick is wild. I think an hour of snow for anyone will coat the roads & ground with ease.
 
Mitch West said:
Totals will overachieve in real time compared to whatever models show. For example, if one model run shows 1-2 inches for your location, I’d add an extra inch or so to that. The lack of talk in general on how easy everything will stick is wild. I think an hour of snow for anyone will coat the roads & ground with ease.
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THIS. 19F here in south CLT right now. Can’t remember having such a solid frozen ground before an event in some time. There will be no melt loss.
 
Official guidance from NWS GSP. Winter Storm Watches only in the mountains

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z FRI-12Z SAT FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS AND OUR GA MOUNTAINS.

2) THE CONSENSUS TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
COLDER, BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS
ICE.

AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY: A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT
FROM TEXAS FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH THE WAVE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DAMPENED AND VORTICITY INCREASINGLY CHANNELED AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO WRING OUT
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OF
80-90% WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TOWARD LESS
PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER JET, AND
TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED/FARTHER SOUTH/SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND COLDER
SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SIGNALS A POSSIBLE TREND IN
GUIDANCE TOWARD A LITTLE MORE SNOW, A LITTLE LESS OF A MIX, BUT ALSO
TOWARD LOWER OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP. INDEED, THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS, WHICH HAVE HERETOFORE FEATURED A RATHER WET
SCENARIO...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT DRIER ECMWF. THAT BEING
THE CASE, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS IS STILL RATHER LOW ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS (STILL) MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY UNDERCUTTING SNOWFALL TOTALS...AND
WE STILL DON'T THINK IT'S A GIVEN THAT QPF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA....EVEN IF ALL PRECIP WERE TO
FALL AS A SINGLE TYPE.

WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE FALLS INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-BELOW FREEZING WET
BULB TEMPS. AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE
EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR EVERY FORECAST ZONE. WE'RE ALSO CONFIDENT THAT
ALMOST ALL OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES
TO OUR WEST, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM 12Z FRI-12Z
SAT FOR THE AREAS IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENTLY HIGHEST THAT
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
FROM MARS HILL, NC=>WAYNESVILLE=>CASHIERS=>CLAYTON, GA=>
CLARKESVILLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR INSUFFICIENT QPF IS A CONCERN (I.E., OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CWA)...OR THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
FORECAST A TRANSITION TO A MIX OR TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM
NOSE ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT.
IN FACT, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A COMBINATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW AND
ADVISORY-LEVEL ICE, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WINTER STORM
HEADLINE BASED UPON IMPACTS.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE TN BORDER, POSSIBLY PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Official guidance from NWS GSP. Winter Storm Watches only in the mountains

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z FRI-12Z SAT FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS AND OUR GA MOUNTAINS.

2) THE CONSENSUS TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
COLDER, BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS
ICE.

AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY: A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT
FROM TEXAS FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH THE WAVE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DAMPENED AND VORTICITY INCREASINGLY CHANNELED AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO WRING OUT
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OF
80-90% WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS...THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TOWARD LESS
PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER JET, AND
TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED/FARTHER SOUTH/SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND COLDER
SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SIGNALS A POSSIBLE TREND IN
GUIDANCE TOWARD A LITTLE MORE SNOW, A LITTLE LESS OF A MIX, BUT ALSO
TOWARD LOWER OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP. INDEED, THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS, WHICH HAVE HERETOFORE FEATURED A RATHER WET
SCENARIO...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT DRIER ECMWF. THAT BEING
THE CASE, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS IS STILL RATHER LOW ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS (STILL) MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY UNDERCUTTING SNOWFALL TOTALS...AND
WE STILL DON'T THINK IT'S A GIVEN THAT QPF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA....EVEN IF ALL PRECIP WERE TO
FALL AS A SINGLE TYPE.

WHAT WE ARE SURE OF IS THAT VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE FALLS INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-BELOW FREEZING WET
BULB TEMPS. AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE
EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR EVERY FORECAST ZONE. WE'RE ALSO CONFIDENT THAT
ALMOST ALL OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES
TO OUR WEST, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM 12Z FRI-12Z
SAT FOR THE AREAS IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENTLY HIGHEST THAT
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
FROM MARS HILL, NC=>WAYNESVILLE=>CASHIERS=>CLAYTON, GA=>
CLARKESVILLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR INSUFFICIENT QPF IS A CONCERN (I.E., OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CWA)...OR THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO
FORECAST A TRANSITION TO A MIX OR TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM
NOSE ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT.
IN FACT, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
I-85 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A COMBINATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW AND
ADVISORY-LEVEL ICE, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WINTER STORM
HEADLINE BASED UPON IMPACTS.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE TN BORDER, POSSIBLY PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Click to expand...
Makes sense. Timing has it arriving first to SW N.C.
 
packfan98 said:
We need some good pbp! I saw the 6z ukmet on pivotal. It’s definitely handling that piece of energy more like the euro than gfs.
Click to expand...
It initially looked stronger but actually looks to have less influence this run. Probably slightly less QPF this run vs 00z if true
 
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