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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

WolfpackHomer91 said:
Yea, that was literally named “The Big one” on AmericanWX. @wow started the thread. But that had massive runs from Saturday 12Z all the way to Gametime Weds PM. I will say though even that one Day 2/3 out trended towards heavy ice then back to Snow/Sleet 36hrs and in


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Well it did end up being pretty big one here with that def band the next morning, just wasn't a widespread big one as we all were expecting. Damn the sleet!
 
jackendrickwx said:
Low track about the same. Maybe a hair southeast. More worried about losing front end QPF
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Yea this is a big concern. We probably get a little back due to models poor performance on warm air advection which is the forcing mechanism for this event but still, I’d rather have more QPF if it means the mid levels are slightly warmer
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yea this is a big concern. We probably get a little back due to models poor performance on warm air advection which is the forcing mechanism for this event but still, I’d rather have more QPF if it means the mid levels are slightly warmer
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We will probably have more QPF down here imo
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yea this is a big concern. We probably get a little back due to models poor performance on warm air advection which is the forcing mechanism for this event but still, I’d rather have more QPF if it means the mid levels are slightly warmer
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1736308810698.png
this disgusting brown line of folded over vorticity puts a qpf cap on anybody in the carolinas. something needs to give that trough some oomph and as of now i cant find it. to me this isn't a look where CAMs are magically going to find an extra 0.20 inches of qpf out of their pocket just because it's overrunning.

i just think we can dream bigger than this
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah this thing is drying up. Going to be a long day of squinting out the window if this keeps up for too many more cycles.
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Not sure if this drying up for places further west but I can be wrong
 
accu35 said:
NP my apologies. I did that because of the comments from earlier. I’ll delete it
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I think it's just the snow maps on Trop Tidbits that are bad (on an otherwise great site - someone correct if I'm wrong). But you can get free snow maps on Pivotal Weather or College of Dupage Weather Models
 
griteater said:
I think it's just the snow maps on Trop Tidbits that are bad (on an otherwise great site - someone correct if I'm wrong). But you can get free snow maps on Pivotal Weather or College of Dupage Weather Models
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You’re right man, appreciate it.
 
ColdCoreLow said:
Not drying up in MS, AL and GA
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yeah to be clear when we say drying we mean the carolinas

this is shaping up to be a wonderful event from texarkana to MS, AL, GA, this looks good for yall

what has worried me for days now is the structure of the trough becoming skinnier and more positively tilted as the low pressure gets into the carolinas (which does not promote lift/precip). the forcing nosedives as it heads east
 
Yeah the hardcore forcing for rising motion is likely going to be best thru Bama / GA / W SC Upstate / SW NC - just a matter of who in those areas is cold enough for snow

East of the mtns in NC, I definitely think there is a logical path to a moderate event (temps dependent), but a big event is challenging given 500mb setup
 
60

Front thump looking good. Plenty moisture on these frames
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Sorry, I just have to post the GFS clown map. It's not every day MBY is painted in Tropical Tidbits fuchsia just 3 days out.
View attachment 161118
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there's something about the combination of the antecedent cold press nudging westward combined with the initial qpf bomb in the mid south that makes me think atl/central georgia should be feeling really good about this
 
albertwilsonjr said:
How do I get to it


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Click link>>click “GEFS”>>click where in the US you want>>click “precipitation products”>>click “ensemble prec. type”

Use the scroll on the bottom of the map where the hour marker is to scroll through the frames
 
Lots of dry air in the low levels prior to this, this is the frame where it’s showing all snow for NC and a lot of SC. this sounding is near CLT. I hate to say it but we might need some more help from WAA or a trend that favors a little bit more WAA to get rid of this very stout low level dry air by forcing higher rates to fall in this. Probably a big reason why sfc temps have went up vs prior runs is less evaporative cooling to start the process of wedgingIMG_3482.png
 
JHS said:
What we really do not want is an east to west line the goes from just offshore of the Fla panhandle back to south of New Orleans LA. That would really cut amounts.
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Actually that track with a stronger low would work well. Throws up more moisture with less WAA from that track. Always a balance.
 
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