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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Parker said:
I’ll be live from the mountains in Blue Ridge Georgia for this one. Not feeling too hot about our area down here, so going to chase it with the family. Hope everyone scores big!
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Chasing too!! Girls trip to Young Harris, Ga!! Towns County!! GA/NC border.. Leaving Thursday nite. Brasstown Valley Resort!! Perfect place to chase!
 
Since we will be within 48 hours tomorrow I would expect FFC to issue a winter storm watch for a good chunk of North GA. Anyone have any thoughts on how far south the inital watch might be issued? My guess based on the data ive seen so far would be around or maybe a row of counties just north of I-20. Keep in mind, high enough risk of significant IP/ZR would be enough to warrant one for places further south.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Chasing too!! Girls trip to Young Harris, Ga!! Towns County!! GA/NC border.. Leaving Thursday nite. Brasstown Valley Resort!! Perfect place to chase!
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Went to young Harris. Was supposed to be at brasstown valley Friday but event is canceled. Gonna go up to smith lake to get better chances there


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Tarheel1 said:
B Rad, doing B Rad things
He needed pants after this lower totals run of models! View attachment 161099
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I don't necessarily disagree BUT, as with most tv Mets, they will start low and adjust upward as needed. It's much easier to go up than back off. Either way, it's going to be a significant storm and one that hasn't been around for many years.

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BufordWX said:
Since we will be within 48 hours tomorrow I would expect FFC to issue a winter storm watch for a good chunk of North GA. Anyone have any thoughts on how far south the inital watch might be issued? My guess based on the data ive seen so far would be around or maybe a row of counties just north of I-20. Keep in mind, high enough risk of significant IP/ZR would be enough to warrant one for places further south.
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Was thinking about this earlier. I do think they probably go winter storm watch down to I-20 or thereabouts and then just a Winter Weather Advisory south of there probably down to Macon or so to account for risks
 
BufordWX said:
Since we will be within 48 hours tomorrow I would expect FFC to issue a winter storm watch for a good chunk of North GA. Anyone have any thoughts on how far south the inital watch might be issued? My guess based on the data ive seen so far would be around or maybe a row of counties just north of I-20. Keep in mind, high enough risk of significant IP/ZR would be enough to warrant one for places further south.
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Prediction: WSW for north of I-20 including Fulton. WWA advisories for the south metro and SPS down to Columbus and Macon.
 
BufordWX said:
Since we will be within 48 hours tomorrow I would expect FFC to issue a winter storm watch for a good chunk of North GA. Anyone have any thoughts on how far south the inital watch might be issued? My guess based on the data ive seen so far would be around or maybe a row of counties just north of I-20. Keep in mind, high enough risk of significant IP/ZR would be enough to warrant one for places further south.
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Probably winter storm watch by 12 tomorrow for I-20 N as mentioned. I expect an upgrade for Forsyth North come storm time initially and the next row below if criteria are met and WWA's for I-20 north. I could see the first row of counties below Forsyth, Hall, and Cherokee upgraded too when the watch expires.
 
Rain Cold said:
They can help or hurt. If the line races out ahead, that's no good. A slow moving line in step with the system can actually help with moisture transport.
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What we really do not want is an east to west line the goes from just offshore of the Fla panhandle back to south of New Orleans LA. That would really cut amounts.
 
JHS said:
What we really do not want is an east to west line the goes from just offshore of the Fla panhandle back to south of New Orleans LA. That would really cut amounts.
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Yes, needs to look like a squall line not a frontal boundary line
 
ForsythSnow said:
Probably winter storm watch by 12 tomorrow for I-20 N as mentioned. I expect an upgrade for Forsyth North come storm time initially and the next row below if criteria are met and WWA's for I-20 north. I could see the first row of counties below Forsyth, Hall, and Cherokee upgraded too when the watch expires.
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My original spot has been Northern Gwinnett and there has not been a good hit when there was a Winter Storm Warning issued the night before since the 2011 storm. Every hit, even marginal, has just been an advisory if my memory serves me right.
 
WxGSO said:
I don't necessarily disagree BUT, as with most tv Mets, they will start low and adjust upward as needed. It's much easier to go up than back off. Either way, it's going to be a significant storm and one that hasn't been around for many years.

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I feel like the last event where folks were super aggressive was 2014. We had foot totals being thrown out five days ahead
 
I think brads forecast is great at this lead time. If you blend everything that’s about it. There’s a few signs pointing to lower QPF east of the apps, possibly due to enhanced convective robbing to our south and lots of initial dry air in the low levels. Especially if we get a flatter solution, then the possibility of warm air advection mid way switching things over.
 
chase5ash said:
My original spot has been Northern Gwinnett and there has not been a good hit when there was a Winter Storm Warning issued the night before since the 2011 storm. Every hit, even marginal, has just been an advisory if my memory serves me right.
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One county makes a huge difference but I think FFC's bust of the past two decades was still 2017, that one was a shock to most, and 2014 may have been a Forsyth N storm. The small 2020 hit also snuck up on us.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think brads forecast is great at this lead time. If you blend everything that’s about it. There’s a few signs pointing to lower QPF east of the apps, possibly due to enhanced connecting robbing to our south and lots of initial dry air in the low levels. Especially if we get a flatter solution.
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I wanna add to this, it’s not impossible to get a Carolina split in this type of track. Something models sometimes “miss” 24hrs before the event.
 
BullCityWx said:
I feel like the last event where folks were super aggressive was 2014. We had foot totals being thrown out five days ahead
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It wasn't just tv broadcasters. NWS GSP upped my totals from 4-6 to 8-12 inches like 8 hours before the event started, and it was already clear as day we were toast. I got about an inch of slop.
 
BullCityWx said:
I feel like the last event where folks were super aggressive was 2014. We had foot totals being thrown out five days ahead
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Yea, that was literally named “The Big one” on AmericanWX. @wow started the thread. But that had massive runs from Saturday 12Z all the way to Gametime Weds PM. I will say though even that one Day 2/3 out trended towards heavy ice then back to Snow/Sleet 36hrs and in


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