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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

iGRXY said:
Just an FYI, the NAM was by far the worst short range model handling the FGEN front end thump in 2022. I expect the same this time around also
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I tend to agree that front line precip is probably a little better snpw producer for areas to southern edge and east across MS/Al/GA
 
I don’t want to sound negative, but a few days ago, I predicted this southward trend, and now it's playing out. The models are beginning to align, and while I could be wrong, it seems like this trend might be coming to an end. I don’t see it reversing back north, but there could be a slight warm-up. Hopefully, I’m wrong on that.
 
Unless you along the escarpment of a mountain I believe it will be nearly impossible to see more than 0.1” freezing rain. Sleet/snow/rain/temps this just isn’t an ice storm at all.
 
iGRXY said:
Just an FYI, the NAM was by far the worst short range model handling the FGEN front end thump in 2022. I expect the same this time around also
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This run is off though. It shows freezing rain in some areas with a 34 degree temp. I'm hoping we get more sleet than ice, because .40 of ice will be lights out. This looks a lot like the Jan 22-23 2000 system for NC and SC, when a major icestorm hit the southern and eastern upstate over to Raleigh while 2-4 inches of snow fell north of I-85. This is looking like maybe a repeat of that for us.
 
iGRXY said:
Just an FYI, the NAM was by far the worst short range model handling the FGEN front end thump in 2022. I expect the same this time around also
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s definitely something we’ve seen over the years. The HRRR is definitely the model you wanna watch for to pick that up first. It starting catching on to it a good 24 hours out.
 
njbarrineau said:
As far as underestimating the thump, correct?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah the low pressure system rotation will in affect pull cold air from the remaining artic front out ahead of system and create in areas sections of cooler atmosphere and help form that leading edge to heavier precip bands and would be snow so in theory a snow onset which is heavy before a later changeover
 
Id use the clowns on all models to gauge the footprint. Dont get caught up in the actual output for your backyard. Those strips,how they orientate, move N/S, are trending, compare to prior runs,verse other models etc. We are still looking for trends that will become less noticeable, flucuate as start time draws near.
 
WPC around 10% chance of greater than .1” ice around Atlanta and south. Better chance of a glaze tho. Snow to sleet to some ZR then cold rain. 🌧️
 
Benholio said:
NWS Atlanta said something like 8:1, they mentioned it a recent discussion
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Yes. "Important to note here that 10:1 maps in the models are likely to be
overestimating snowfall - soundings show near isothermal layer just
above freezing that extends well aloft, so snow that falls is likely
to be classic southern snow - wet and heavy, bringing ratios down to
8 or 7:1 (and maybe lower, depending). Keep this in mind."
 
JHS said:
This run is off though. It shows freezing rain in some area with a 34 degree temp. I'm hoping we get more sleet than ice, because .40 of ice will be lights out. This looks a lot like the Jan 22-23 2000 system for NC and SC, when a major icestorm hit the southern and eastern upstate over to Raleigh while 2-4 inches of snow fell north of I-85. This is looking like maybe a repeat of that for us.
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It’s been a while. I get my dates mixed up but one of those early 2000’s ice storms was supposed to be snow south of 85 until right before the storm moved in. One of my more memorable storms. I can still hear the sound of trees snapping and remember power being out for well over a week. Haven’t seen anything close to it since.
 
accu35 said:
View attachment 161062I’ll take what the Nam is smoking please
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Once we get closer to the event can we stop posting known model biases particularly this one and some of the ice maps? It may help with some of the confusion with new members. They would ask less questions for their backyard if we didn’t tease them with bad data
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s been a while. I get my dates mixed up but one of those early 2000’s ice storms was supposed to be snow south of 85 until right before the storm moved in. One of my more memorable storms. I can still hear the sound of trees snapping and remember power being out for well over a week. Haven’t seen anything close to it since.
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December 2002. Appocalyptic here. 1.15 qpf at 22 degrees entire time. Maybe 2 inch snow,sleet. Rest frzng rain an every drop froze
 
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