SLP pretty far south off the La/TX coast. Hmm
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Icon looks pretty good at 60
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
whatcha thinking rain cold?
I don't know. We haven't had this problem in so long, we going to have to blow the dust off the "Snowstorm Killers" handbook.
They can help or hurt. If the line races out ahead, that's no good. A slow moving line in step with the system can actually help with moisture transport.
True. I was comparing it to the NAM. I should have been clearer.
That’s actually not bad. Brad P has covered this before on his videos. If the thunderstorms are lined like that, they actually assist with moisture transport from the Gulf. What you don’t want to see is a line of storms oriented more east to west because that’s what will hurt moisture transport.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A little less energy than 12Z and definitely better than 18Z. These bounces I definitely expected. As much as I'd like the Fgen band the 12Z had I can't ask too much. I'll take a few inches.
Colder on the Icon
I remember this. I lived 2 miles from work and it took me 2 hours to get home and almost slid off the road going 1mph about every 4 feet.
IIRC north/south line of convection can actually enhance the slp and not disrupt qpf but east/west line of convection would rob the moisture transport, we good
NCSNOW
Member
Hug it.
Kuchera
Kuchera
Lock it in
Thus far trend on 0z is southern part of vort little more positive tilt, touch flatter, less amped and colder out ahead.... not bad
iGRXY
Member
The icon is all snow for the 85 corridor but it shifted the axis of heaviest rates south so the sweet spot is actually in the central upstate lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Interesting "trend" overall. Possible the fgen band may overperform still as typical in storms though.
tractor girl
Member
slightly less heavy precip around N GA & SC as well
LittleMountain
Member
Ugh. That leeside minimum and Asheville snow hole are looking worse and worse
Makeitsnow
Member
Icon..although not as heavy.. with a similar axis of heaviest winter precip as the nam.
iGRXY
Member
I think the seeet spot will be the 85 corridor where lift is better due to the change in elevation. It’s always been a sweet spot because heavier rates ride up it and whoever can be as close to those returns without being in the sleet mix always scores big time.
All roads lead back to the euro AI
NCSNOW
Member
My hunch is qpf of .4-.6 .for my immediate area. All frozen.
Breakdown ptype to be decided.
Breakdown ptype to be decided.
Couldn't ask for a better SLP track. The low goes from south of Mobile to off of the Ga. coast. Track here is important to keep the in-situ cod air we're working with in place. Nice.
Bigedd09
Member
Colder temps= higher ratios. Could be 12:1 ratios
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea, it can Create the “Firehose” off the Gulf. Matthew East has mentioned a few times too. “Gulf Coast Convection”
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
FFC upped their grid amounts for snow. Almost doubled here. Old total was 2.1 or so, new is over 4.
We keep having good runs at night and bad ones in the morning. Think I will just go to bed early and shake things up
One thing I think the Euro could be missing is the moisture plume coming off the baja wave. Sounds weenie-ish, but I do recall a storm a few years back where it was lighter with precip than other models in that kind of setup with a baja wave. Euro could be correct with more positive tilt trough, but a little too weak with moisture / precip off the baja wave.
Last 2 runs of Icon:
njbarrineau
Member
True! But as somebody in the northern upstate I’m glad it is there for now bc of that last minute NW tick! I wish they would score for once though, they deserve a big one.
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rburrel2
Member
I think the SREF mean is a horrible forecasting tool... but dang!
I’ll be live from the mountains in Blue Ridge Georgia for this one. Not feeling too hot about our area down here, so going to chase it with the family. Hope everyone scores big!
Forevertothee
Member
And the Low is slightly South, too.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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B Rad, doing B Rad things
He needed pants after this lower totals run of models!
He needed pants after this lower totals run of models!
NCSNOW
Member
Lot more to that than getting surface colder. Higher ratios need it getting mucho colder way above our heads.
