• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

ITUSETOSNOW said:
I think you are somewhat wrong, The alignment is not correct,,, This is SW to NE
Click to expand...
I figured the map would upset some people. That's ok, I am not just copying model snowfall outputs and calling it my prediction. I've seen how these things tend to go. We can discuss who is wrong vs right after the event has concluded.
 
SnowmasterATL said:
What about over ATL? was it sleet or Freezing rain?
Click to expand...
It looked to me like it was split through Atlanta metro. Typical climo says there shouldn’t be a wide area of ZR with a Miller A over the Carolinas, but they have been known to produce a lot of sleet. North GA from what I’ve looked at it’s a little different. I remember a number of years back GaWx put up a history of ATL ZR storms that were from Miller A and there were a number of them including the 1973 Ice Storm
 
POWERSTROKE said:
You know Frosty always ends up with the most. Give it time
Click to expand...
SREF MEAN Snow map rule I had was always discard the bottom tier 3 counties having the most due to mixing..which would put Surry in the most maybe down to Statesville. I still use NAM/euro rules too. A lot of new comers don’t understand you don’t wanna be on the bullseye far out on the southern extent of snow vs rain…
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 161045I don’t want to completely say this is going to happen because it’s early in the run but the N/S is already different vs the 18z. Makes me think that you’re not going to get that early phase again like previously
Click to expand...
This is run is gonna be money. That top vort at the edge of the map is coming in faster and deeper and that's gonna make all the difference on the height field.

Plus like you said, the other vort is gonna phase with the cut off later which is also good.
 
Unpopular opinion. Freezing drizzle will probably cut down snow totals, maybe a little maybe a lot. Moisture and lift in the DGZ is a must to get good quality snow, even if the entire column is below freezing. The DGZ getting way up to around 500mb isn't the end of the world, but it isn't ideal either.

1736300984058.png

1736301139405.png
 
Well 9 times out of 10 the moisture typically is more than modeled on the north-west side and 9 times out of 10 temps are an issue for getting substantial snow (>3”) in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. Just being real, some of our fears have been forgotten it’s been so long. Still looks to be a widespread event for many whether it be advisory vs warning we shall see
 
BirdManDoomW said:
SREF MEAN Snow map rule I had was always discard the bottom tier 3 counties having the most due to mixing..which would put Surry in the most maybe down to Statesville. I still use NAM/euro rules too. A lot of new comers don’t understand you don’t wanna be on the bullseye far out on the southern extent of snow vs rain…
Click to expand...
Been in this game over 30 years. Definitely know how it generally ends. Always trends one way or another but Surry stokes and Forsyth generally do well. I win either way with salt or plow
 
KyloG said:
Precip…you dummies were worried about it being too amped.

View attachment 161035
Click to expand...

Personally, I’d rather keep it flatter and colder and take my chances on the NW side of the precip shield being larger / stronger than modeled (not uncommon) than straddle the mixing line.
 
Atlanta looks to do a little better on the timing department..vs Charlotte around 2pm and Raleigh even later. Timing do matter esp in the south. If we can get the ground white before lunch time in the mtns/hills it’s usually a lock for sig accumulations…sometimes it’s just hard to do around 2:30pm
 
I think @ILMRoss discussed this in detail earlier, the northern part of the vort is trending more neutral while the southern part more positive, allowing more cold press out front, better storm track and still decent qpf. Let's see how this translates but less amped and colder is the way

1736303672204.gif
 
Channel 11 out of Atlanta
e5b098079f64e05b0f8fd5b297ff043d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top