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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
I bet that's why the euro is showing freezing rain for central/western NC at the end too.... they lost snow growth saturation. not b/c of a warmnose,(i'm guessing, don't have the soundings).
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Could you explain this a bit? Novice here. Could a lack of snow growth saturation have to do with convection down in the gulf?


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njbarrineau said:
Could you explain this a bit? Novice here. Could a lack of snow growth saturation have to do with convection down in the gulf?


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From google:

Snow growth requires saturation in the snow growth zone, which is the region of the atmosphere between -10°C and -20°C. The ideal level of saturation is a relative humidity of at least 70% within this layer.

Here's how snow forms:
  1. Condensation: Water vapor in the cold atmosphere condenses around a nucleus, such as a dust grain, to form a tiny ice crystal.

  2. Growth: Water molecules from the air freeze onto the ice crystal, causing it to grow.

  3. Aggregation: The ice crystals collide and stick together to form snowflakes.

The shape and size of snow crystals depends on the altitude at which saturation occurs and the depth of the saturated layer. For example, in a saturated layer between -12°C and -18°C, plates (six-sided crystals) and dendrites (tree-like structures) are most common.


Snow growth is an important factor in predicting winter weather. If the snow growth zone is dry, rain will fall instead of snow, even if the temperature is below freezing
 
CobraMedic said:
I regret clicking on that link. Freezing rain and sleet for N. Alabama.
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This is a huge trend


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Now that I can get down with. Those are crazy numbers. Actually too good to believe, they will go down drastically.
 
Me being in northern foothills I’m hoping euro is too progressive here. Nearly every other model gives us a pretty decent snowfall. But I despise not having euro on board. Pretty unanimous agreement across all other models for more moisture other than op euro.


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It has been a considerable amount of time since my last post, but I assure you that I have been diligently reading and listening to the invaluable input provided by all of you regarding the upcoming winter storm. While it is undeniable that many of us, including myself, are experiencing a heightened sense of anxiety and apprehension due to the frequent inaccuracies of weather models, I believe it would be premature to adopt a confrontational approach. There are numerous factors that are currently aligning favorably, and the weather models are actively attempting to refine their predictions. Consequently, there are a multitude of variables in play. Therefore, I propose that we exercise patience and maintain our composure, as we eagerly anticipate the outcome. The majority of us deserve a favorable resolution!
 
rburrel2 said:
It's really on an island with that. I'm not buying it. 18z Ukmet only goes out to hr66, but it was juiciest/most amped run yet for it.
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It's ensembles do it too though. Notice the precip dies as it goes east. Not sure what the problem is. AIFS doesnt really have that much precip either and also has less as it hits the Carolinas IIRC.

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Snow_chaser said:
I know it was a totally different storm and setup, but the storm we got in Dec 2017 where parts of NW Georgia got a foot, it was the same type of heavy wet snow this will be. Don’t have to have just freezing rain to lose power, that wet snow will weigh down those pine limbs in a heartbeat . Will probably be widespread power outages
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You're 100% correct that storm produced heavy wet snowflakes that did bring down some trees, particularly west and north of Atlanta. That likely had more to do with the fact that many trees probably still had some leaves on them. While December is meteorological Winter, that storm technically arrived at the tail end of Autumn. I lived in the Decatur area at the time & that was problematic, even with 4-5" of snowfall accumulation.

Given that most of the leaves have fallen from most trees across NGA, any power outages would be due to ice accretion on powerlines and/or tree limbs falling on them.
 
From James Spann
FRIDAY SNOW POTENTIAL: There are many, many “model snow maps” floating around around the social platforms. While they are interesting to see, it always best to use the ensemble approach when it comes to the snow maps.
This is from the “National Blend of Models”, calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of various numerical weather prediction model data.
I believe the NBM has the best handle on the snow potential Friday for now, and the forecast is based on it.
Here are some key points….
*There is potential for 2-4 inches of snow Friday along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden).
*Amounts will vary from 1/2 inch to 2 inches down to I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston)
*Hazardous/icy travel is likely Friday morning from I-20 north, but there could be icy spots south of I-20 across Central Alabama (mainly on bridges).
*Snow and freezing rain will likely change to a cold rain for much of the state Friday afternoon, however snow could very well continue into Friday afternoon and evening for the northern third of the state (north of U.S. 278).
*Icy travel will likely continue Friday night into Saturday morning over the northern third of the state. Roads should improve there Saturday afternoon.
*South Alabama will see a cold rain during this event.
*We are getting close to the 60 hour range when we can see high resolution models, which increase forecast confidence.
 

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I wish I had archived what various models looked like before Jan 22 storm. Hopefully euro comes on board for higher qpf soon. Don’t want to squander opportunity for decent storm due to lack of moisture. Although won’t be surprised to see other models trend that direction in the Carolina’s
 
hky1894 said:
I wish I had archived what various models looked like before Jan 22 storm. Hopefully euro comes on board for higher qpf soon. Don’t want to squander opportunity for decent storm due to lack of moisture. Although won’t be surprised to see other models trend that direction in the Carolina’s
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You could probably go back in this forum and see what models looked like
 
SnowNiner said:
It's ensembles do it too though. Notice the precip dies as it goes east. Not sure what the problem is. AIFS doesnt really have that much precip either and also has less as it hits the Carolinas IIRC.

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18z GFS and Euro comparison:

Viewing these can be a bit subjective, but the GFS is dropping the base of the C U.S. wave from Western NDakota down into Oklahoma / Arkansas while the Euro is dropping the base of the wave from NDakota down into TN. So the Euro is not dropping it as deep into the trough. It's a weaker look on the Euro

Also, it looks like the GFS has a bit more vorticity / upper level energy kicking out of the baja wave from TX to TN. The Euro kicks out similar energy, but it just kind of weakly floats into Arkansas.

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Then on the 850mb charts, you can see how the GFS is more vigorous with the 850 low (a bit tighter contour circulation, more vorticity), while the 850 mb wave on the Euro gets flatter in time as it rolls east.

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So these things lead to less forcing for lift and precip generation on the Euro. This is kind of the look the Euro had way back. Then it went amplified. Now it's come back to this weaker look
 
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First call map from a novice in Upstate SC! I was hesitant to post here at first because there are so many experts here, but I welcome feedback and want to learn and grow!

I know some models have decreased QPF slightly, but I also recall numerous storms in our area where CAD has been understated so it snows longer than forecasted, and where f-gen bands do work and over-perform. I’m trying to combine what I see with the models with what I know about my area’s climatology. We will see how it goes!


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