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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

It is remarkable how early the models picked up on this storm. They were showing a low developing in the northwest Gulf area over 10 days ago, traversing generally this same path. Pretty impressive.
 
packfan98 said:
Good luck! I'm sure that's a rare event out there. What are your thoughts for those of us to the east?
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Looks like a solid overrunning type event coming for much of the SE US. Likely a sloppy storm for most outside the mountains and foothills perhaps with a warm nose coming in as the storm progresses changing precip from snow to ice. The initially cool and dry deep layer air mass that’s in place and ok-ish cold air damming high will help a lot of places start out with snow, even down to perhaps the I-20 corridor in GA & SC/Atlanta to Columbia
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like a solid overrunning type event coming for much of the SE US. Likely a sloppy storm for most outside the mountains and foothills perhaps with a warm nose coming in as the storm progresses changing precip from snow to ice. The initially cool and dry deep layer air mass that’s in place and ok-ish cold air damming high will help a lot of places start out with snow, even down to perhaps the I-20 corridor in GA & SC/Atlanta to Columbia
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Thanks. Sounds similar to the GFS run we just watched roll in.
 
Rain Cold said:
Last 4 runs of the gfs. Pretty solid with the orientation but beefier on the frozen (goes without saying, not all is snow).

Reverse psychology works 💪

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We sitting pretty cold for once your snow shields might malfunction. I think we're on tap for a good 4-6 here in Burke county. This is one of those setups where being in the Lee helps because it traps in cold air and keeps us all snow.
 
So unlike early yesterday, at least the models are starting to be consistent among themselves. The GFS is insisting on the low passing over Macon. The AIFS has locked into to its dreamy result. The ICON is a bit more suppressed. And the Canadian is stubbornly asserting that the entire southeast will be at zero degrees Kelvin throughout the storm. Who will win?
 
bouncycorn said:
Internal graphics from NWS Atlanta

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Ugh..i don't like this graphic. It doesn't take into account the usual cad outline and there is almost no chance of plain rain in the metro and especially eastern/Athens areas. I guess it's nitpicking but there are obvious conclusions you can make based on current model output and climo and this isn't it.
 
This looks like a pretty solid moderate level winter storm in the Carolinas. Nothing super crazy like we thought this pattern was capable of a week or two ago, but definitely quite respectable in its own right & no doubt the biggest one we’ve seen since Jan 2022.

The slowing of the upper low to my west that occurred after the seedling wave entered the conus and was sampled by RAOBs early yesterday has actually helped to keep this wave a bit flatter and from amping too much. We’re probably squeezing about as much potential as we can from this setup.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues to increase amounts for those around Asheville to Boone. 6” could turn into 10-12” should the Gulf of America not rob in any moisture. Good overrunning and iso lift can do it for western NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This looks like a pretty solid moderate level winter storm in the Carolinas. Nothing super crazy like we thought this pattern was capable of a week or two ago, but definitely quite respectable in its own right & no doubt the biggest one we’ve seen since Jan 2022.

The slowing of the upper low to my west that occurred after the seedling wave entered the conus and was sampled by RAOBs early yesterday has actually helped to keep this wave a bit flatter and from amping too much. We’re probably squeezing about as much potential as we can from this setup.
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Looks like a much different story for us across the mid/Deep South. This will be an extremely high impact event across northern MS and AL if it plays out like the model/met consensus is thinking.
 
Once again, it feels like the models are underestimating the strength and persistence of the cold air mass in play. Given the trends we’ve observed, I’d expect further alignment toward the solutions being depicted by the GFS and NAM. These models are better capturing the influence of CAD (cold air damming), the existing snowpack, and the strong surface high funneling Arctic air into the Southeast.

The key issue with some of the other guidance, like the Euro, is that it continues to underestimate the thermodynamic resistance provided by the entrenched cold air. The boundary layer temps are already colder than modeled in some areas, and the Gulf moisture looks increasingly likely to stay suppressed thanks to the pronounced upper-level ridging over the West. This allows for a more amplified trough and a southward-displaced storm track, which favors further cold air entrenchment.

As we move closer to the event, mesoscale models like the NAM often start to excel in capturing these smaller-scale dynamics. For example, the NAM’s depiction of the 850mb temp gradients and the strength of the low-level jet supports further suppression of the warm nose and a colder overall solution. I wouldn’t be surprised if upcoming runs from other models, like the Euro and Canadian, begin converging toward this colder, more amplified pattern.

All signs point to continued southward and colder adjustments in the coming runs, so buckle up—it’s only going to get more interesting from here.Screenshot 2025-01-07 at 5.22.49 PM.png
 
GFS would be a pretty decent storm for the Triangle. Far from all snow, but a moderate / major snow to IP / ZR storm. Probably the most likely scenario at this point and not an uncommon one for us. Could be lights out, literally, although I tend to favor more IP than depicted.
 
I really feel like people won’t fully grasp just how significant the cold air and storm dynamics have been underestimated until we’re within 2-5 hours of the storm's arrival. At that point, the real-time observations—like actual surface temps, the strength of CAD, and how far south the precipitation shield extends—will make it abundantly clear. It’s one of those setups where the true scope of the event will only become apparent when we’re right on its doorstep.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
In classic fashion we are trending towards a snow to sleet to zr to rain storm in Raleigh.
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Haha, that's actually the exact forecast RAH has for our area. But, I think surface temps will have a hard time getting above freezing. So maybe (1-2")snow to (more)sleet to (less)freezing rain.
 
Mitch West said:
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Forgive me if I’m wrong but didn’t their GRAF model do really well during one of our last few system? If I remember correctly it under did temps and those temps were close at verification than the globals and other mesoscale models. I could also just be completely wrong 😂😂
 
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