Not to get too off topic but I was watching TWC yesterday afternoon and they were saying 8-12” for most of east Texas and now those poor people are fighting for their lives
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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Not to get too off topic but I was watching TWC yesterday afternoon and they were saying 8-12” for most of east Texas and now those poor people are fighting for their lives
packfan98
Moderator
I’m assuming you mean multiply by 3/4? Dividing by 3/4 would make them go up.
Sorry, I had to clarify. I’ve been a math teacher for 27 years.
If I remember correctly (At least in Athens), temps were definitely down into the 20's during the storm)
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
And probably will be this time as well...The low Thursday night and Fri morning in Atl is 22.
End of that loop you can see secondary slp trying to get going off SC coast. Might have been good to go from here, either way doesn't look like it's headed north/ne
it was realistic and believable as a high end solution imo for northern board members
imo it is oddly comforting that heights rose that much compared to 12z and yet it was still frozen precip down to wilmington
The March 2014 ice storm did exactly that, IIRC (might've not been a half inch, but I believe it was at least a quarter and caused widespread power outages in GSO). Also ended up with a lot of sleet. Oddly, that was also a Miller A with in situ CAD that didn’t fully wear off until the end of the storm (and it was in the 60s a day or two later, which was nice considering the ice storm knocked out power for several days IMBY). We got a ton of IP, then to ZR and finally -RN at the end as temps climbed from 29ish to slightly above freezing by the end. It also wasn’t really forecasted until go time and warnings didn’t go out until after precip began, IIRC. Not sure if it’s much of a true analog to this one, but we can get ice storms from unusual situations like this.
Of course, that’s a setup that works better for the Triad than Triangle, but it is January rather than March now. In situ CAD usually lasts longer at the surface than forecasted, IMO.
Wasn’t February 2014 in situ CAD, too? (Of course, that’s did change to rain for the Triangle whereas the Triad mixed to sleet and ZR after 6” of snow.)
beanskip
Member
I just don't see how the Canadian can be taken seriously when its temperatures are so crazily off from all the other models and just common sense. 2-4 degrees is one thing, but the CMC is modeling temperatures 10-15 degrees lower than other models in some cases. Just doesn't add up to me.
Walking such a tight rope. Get a bit better track, a lot of us party. Amp and cut more and we’ve got sleet to ZR to rain in places that think they’re chilling right now. Margins are so thin. Lots of little changes that make a big difference the next few days
The orientation change for NC sure is interesting gritEuro AI - SV "Snow" output, last 4 runs (could be mix on the southern edge)
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, the setup looks so complicated. The first potential phase with the Baja energy seems to juice the system up, but more northern energy diving down as the low moves east seems like it’s affecting the track more in the east? Maybe?
tractor girl
Member
This should be moved to banter (cold weather complaining) - I just put a comment there about the 1973 ice storm that left us without power for a week.
Looking over the GFDL model suite right now.. these are the highest res models that are resolving our system at this point. The first is the 6.5km global GFDL and the second is the 3km CONUS GFDL. Both are very cold and snowy. Theoretically, the higher res should be able to resolve these temp issues far better.. but I'm not sure if GFDL has a bias.
Mahomeless
Member
Not a chance the NAM is correct in amping it early on and then just sliding east. If it amps as early as shown, its cutting across southern GA and up the inland coast. It either amps early and cuts, or the amp isnt correct and its a classic miller A.....NAM can't have both, but it tried.
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Saw the same thing. I think we would’ve had some enhancement like we’ve seen on the Icon
weather bubba
Member
The latest NAM run was a step back in the right direction as far as the low pressure track and precipitation types for North Carolina. We don't want this to become overamped however pushing the track to the northwest. Lets see what the GFS shows when it starts running in a few minutes.
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Using the NBM modeling product, the temp average for Atlanta for 12Z on Friday is 30, not 22. The GEM has 24 for that time frame but it often produces temps that are too low.
The 1973 Ice Storm in Atlanta had temperatures 30-32 for the entire storm
ForsythSnow
Moderator
ICON up and running.
UNCSC
Member
Through 36, icon looks a little better so far
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Cold press looks a bit better so far out west. Whether it holds we will see.
rburrel2
Member
I bet the GFDL is doing what the hrrr did and leaving that cut off way back in the beginning. That really screws texas/arkansas/etc... but allows for more development later on and colder profiles like shown here.
I'm filing it in the not very likely category for now until another model hints at that happening.
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That was a sleet storm, not just freezing rain. Totally different animal.
Triplephase93
Member
iGRXY
Member
Hmm I wonder what they’re seeing. Their zr and heavy snow bubbles don’t include many east of the apps where heavy snow and zr has been showing on the models
SnowmasterATL
Member
Better cold push. let's where this goes.
beanskip
Member
Really no significant changes between 18z and 12z ICON through 60 hours.
Woof. ICON is way north for the I20 gang 
Stormlover
Member
weather bubba
Member
Those temperatures are borderline for RDU as is often the case during potential winter events. I was hoping for a colder run.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
This is starting to get concerning. Even northern burbs are on the line now...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
More of a whiff further south. Need that cold air to really push in. Not liking 18Z so far.
Stormlover
Member
They didn't have this in at all yesterday, so don't be surprised if they post an area farther east for the 11th tomorrow.
Snow_chaser
Member
That circle for heavy snow looks like it matches the icon that was just posted
Icon is North. Still a solid swatch of snow. Pulling for you all in the upstate and piedmont.
This is the part I am missing from the past few runs here.... The low takes a classic Miller A path right out in gulf on edge of panhandle across Florida then turns up the savannah coastline.....So where is the warm air aloft coming from it's not WAA if you have a Miller A track like that not cutting inland
ChattaVOL
Member
Timing:
MRX Afternoon Discussion:
Thursday night lows will be in the teens to low 20s, with dewpoints firmly in the teens if not single digits, so cold air will be entrenched across the region to start the day Fri and precip should start/continue as snow through the event. Sometime after daybreak Friday, the precip shield with the developing system should be spreading our direction from MS/AL, with snowfall likely arriving by the mid morning hours in the Chattanooga area, midday towards the I-40 corridor, and early afternoon in the north. Ending time looks to be roughly 4-6 AM or so in the south, and something closer to 8-10 AM in the north. The end times could be a little premature as we transition to a northwest flow regime Saturday on the backside of the system, but as far as impactful snow accumulations in the lower elevations go, those times are probably good estimates at this time.
Precip types:
The forecast reflects snow, or perhaps a few short-lived periods of rain/snow mix, across the CWA at this time. Areas of possible
rain/snow mix at the beginning would be in the foothills of the TN mountains as H85 flow comes over the Appalachians and warms on it`s
decent into the valley. That`s reflected in the H85 temps on some models, but also worth noting that they`re still at/slightly below
freezing, so I think snow is the only ptype we`ll have to worry with. If the track of the system changes, ptypes could as well, but
at this point it appears we will be dealing with only snow
Snowfall amounts:
The trends in ensemble guidance over the last 24 hours have been upward with regards to amounts in general, and that`s especially so
with regards to probabilities of amounts greater than 4" or even 6". First off, previous forecasts had favored a relative maxima of
snowfall amounts being in the southern valley, and lesser amounts in the north. The trends have been to favor a spreading out of those
higher amounts across much of the CWA, with guidance now suggesting that a widespread 3-5" snowfall is possible across the forecast
area. Additionally, the 24hr probabilities of seeing great than or equal to 6" of snow by 7 AM Saturday have come up to non-dismissible
levels now, with some +40 percent odds across significant portions of the CWA. All of that said, it`s still too early to really hone in
on a particular value/range as the track of this system will have significant impacts on amounts. Suffice it to say that confidence in
a widespread winter weather event is definitively trending higher.
MRX Afternoon Discussion:
Thursday night lows will be in the teens to low 20s, with dewpoints firmly in the teens if not single digits, so cold air will be entrenched across the region to start the day Fri and precip should start/continue as snow through the event. Sometime after daybreak Friday, the precip shield with the developing system should be spreading our direction from MS/AL, with snowfall likely arriving by the mid morning hours in the Chattanooga area, midday towards the I-40 corridor, and early afternoon in the north. Ending time looks to be roughly 4-6 AM or so in the south, and something closer to 8-10 AM in the north. The end times could be a little premature as we transition to a northwest flow regime Saturday on the backside of the system, but as far as impactful snow accumulations in the lower elevations go, those times are probably good estimates at this time.
Precip types:
The forecast reflects snow, or perhaps a few short-lived periods of rain/snow mix, across the CWA at this time. Areas of possible
rain/snow mix at the beginning would be in the foothills of the TN mountains as H85 flow comes over the Appalachians and warms on it`s
decent into the valley. That`s reflected in the H85 temps on some models, but also worth noting that they`re still at/slightly below
freezing, so I think snow is the only ptype we`ll have to worry with. If the track of the system changes, ptypes could as well, but
at this point it appears we will be dealing with only snow
Snowfall amounts:
The trends in ensemble guidance over the last 24 hours have been upward with regards to amounts in general, and that`s especially so
with regards to probabilities of amounts greater than 4" or even 6". First off, previous forecasts had favored a relative maxima of
snowfall amounts being in the southern valley, and lesser amounts in the north. The trends have been to favor a spreading out of those
higher amounts across much of the CWA, with guidance now suggesting that a widespread 3-5" snowfall is possible across the forecast
area. Additionally, the 24hr probabilities of seeing great than or equal to 6" of snow by 7 AM Saturday have come up to non-dismissible
levels now, with some +40 percent odds across significant portions of the CWA. All of that said, it`s still too early to really hone in
on a particular value/range as the track of this system will have significant impacts on amounts. Suffice it to say that confidence in
a widespread winter weather event is definitively trending higher.
Forevertothee
Member
that's lights out for southern upstate with our 1.4 inch snow in the Clinton area.
weather bubba
Member
The NWS is probably playing it conservative for now. Temperature concerns are probably a factor in this forecast.