whew this could be a nuke
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’m pretty worried about temps here the rest of the run. The 500mb look is slightly warmer and we were already on a razor edge. Maybe I’ll be wrong! Hope so
iGRXY
Member
NAM is more amped but actually colder at 850 and at 2M
packfan98
Moderator
There’s a fine line between getting enough energy to beef up the precip and getting too much to screw up the track of the low. Thread the needle event every time.
Stormsfury
Member
No, the first northern stream shortwave is stronger (552mb closed contour) over the 4 Corners already beginning to phase into the Baja Low .. gets amped up early, likely driving a bump up ridge downstream... Likely to be warmer downstream and also more precip type issues and modes. ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
18Z is a lot like 6Z on the NAM. Looks to be a big hit.
Nope. Not going to work for I-20. Too amped already
Nam height field looks in line with 06z
Ice. Tennessee going to get smoked
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing that now, warm air coming in too intense. Need to tone it down some.
packfan98
Moderator
I-85 diving line it looks like for the all snow vs mix. Typical.
Needs to track east from here. I'm sure it will
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Downeastnc
Member
Needs to track east from here. I'm sure it will
You beat me to it....ENE would be epic for NC.
Lord 
Looked to me the sfc low was sliding a bit more east than the gfs has it doing so.
Snowlover34
Member
Also here in Hazel green near the Tennessee state line here in Alabama getting smoked
BufordWX
Member
18z NAM would lead to serious problems for Atlanta. Major ice storm.
Cold air mass doing work. I really can't imagine there's going to be that much zr with a Miller A, unless it's reforming.
beanskip
Member
Captain Obvious checking in to say: You really can't compare surface temps vs. prior runs without taking into account where precip has fallen (or not) -- have to kind of triangulate with DPs (unless there is a site that measures wet bulbs which would be amazing, but I don't think exists).
SnowmasterATL
Member
I think more of a sleet than FRZ rain in ATL. I was complaining about the 12z but I rather that then this. lol
I’m ready to sign now 
CMC & the NAM are full send on a huge ice storm.
Snowflowxxl
Member
That’s a lot of sleet for metro ATL
iGRXY
Member
Looking at the soundings at least in the central and southern upstate, it's ZR.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Long range NAM will have huge shifts next several runs just fyi.
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
That is a crippling ice storm for ATL and most of GA...
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Not believing the accretion maps at all. Only has me at 30-32 degrees. Unless it's very light precipitation and heavy overcast or at night, you're not going to get that much ice to form with marginal surface temps. It's just a very cold rain for me. The coldest rain possible.
Temps are very marginal for ZR accrual throughout North Georgia. Like it's 30-32 across most of the region. I'm not super worried. If it was in the 20's I'd be concerned.
Euro AI - SV "Snow" output, last 4 runs (could be mix on the southern edge)
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Atlanta had 5 inches of sleet in February, 1978
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One thing you might want to consider is how cold the ground will be. You’re gonna see ice in places you normally don’t see it during an ice storm.
Snow fall totals I would divide by 3/4.
albertwilsonjr
Member
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I think that is possible, particularly the way the CMC shows, as it does an A/B thing. The Nam doesn't look like it's doing that, so it should be more r/s. But I don't have access to the good stuff yet, so maybe I'm missing something.
Either way, it's hard to believe a half inch of ice is going to accrue in a non-reinforcrd, shallow CAD.
My forecast thoughts (1/7 Update) - staying the course for now:
