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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

njbarrineau said:
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First call map from a novice in Upstate SC! I was hesitant to post here at first because there are so many experts here, but I welcome feedback and want to learn and grow!

I know some models have decreased QPF slightly, but I also recall numerous storms in our area where CAD has been understated so it snows longer than forecasted, and where f-gen bands do work and over-perform. I’m trying to combine what I see with the models with what I know about my area’s climatology. We will see how it goes!


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I like it ;) you do a great job here and in our little group. Keep it up!


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I am not buying the track the GFS has, just can't see it going inland. I am thinking the EURO has the right numbers except for the QPF which should be higher. One thing I have learned though, never bet against the EURO so it will probably be right
 
Stormsfury said:
Yes it was. Off a very strong in situ and very dry airmass (though we had a stronger parent high up in the NE states)
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Well, that was one of the great moments in weather internet history. A bunch of grizzled CAD veteran weenies schooled the great Larry Cosgrove on the power of the wedge. It was absolutely beautiful.
 
bouncycorn said:
Posted this first call last night and don't see any reason to change it at this point.


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Sorry, but if you extrapolate that west, you are taking the absolute best area of AL completely out of the snow, which isn’t going to happen. NW AL is guaranteed 2-4” unless this cuts up through AL, which isn’t going to happen either.
 
RoddyPiper said:
Sorry, but if you extrapolate that west, you are taking the absolute best area of AL completely out of the snow, which isn’t going to happen. NW AL is guaranteed 2-4” unless this cuts up through AL, which isn’t going to happen either.
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It’s really a forecast for Georgia, isn’t intended to be extrapolated west. The northward curve in Alabama is probably a bit exaggerated , but as mentioned I was focusing on Georgia.
 
Are the SREF plumes still considered reliable? I remember some over the past few years shying away from them.
 
JtSmarts said:

For those who want to relive the Jan 2022 storm.
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RoddyPiper said:
Sorry, but if you extrapolate that west, you are taking the absolute best area of AL completely out of the snow, which isn’t going to happen. NW AL is guaranteed 2-4” unless this cuts up through AL, which isn’t going to happen either.
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Yeah I think bouncy was doing a map focused on NE GA and Upstate SC which looks in line with the topography here. This is a tough area to forecast. 10 miles sometimes between 6”+ and nada
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
18z GFS throws this down before a quick flip to ZR in the upstate.View attachment 161002
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The ZR that the 18z GFS was depicting over the SC upstate and NC Southern Piedmont would actually be a ton of sleet. The 925mb temperatures are below freezing almost to Columbia on it
 
I think the QPF is gonna be a blend of the Euro/AIFS and the the more amped solutions. The worries of this storm fizzling out completely are unfounded imo lol
 
cg2916 said:
Are the SREF plumes still considered reliable? I remember some over the past few years shying away from them.
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Personally I’ve had a very difficult time giving them weight since the February 2015 storm. I know Brad P likes to utilize them still and GSP will mention them in their discussion from time to time
 
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