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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

ILMRoss said:
yeah to be clear when we say drying we mean the carolinas

this is shaping up to be a wonderful event from texarkana to MS, AL, GA, this looks good for yall

what has worried me for days now is the structure of the trough becoming skinnier and more positively tilted as the low pressure gets into the carolinas (which does not promote lift/precip). the forcing nosedives as it heads east
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Definitely having some uncomfortable flashbacks to the January 2011 disaster with some of these runs.

Man, the surface low track on the ICON is pretty dang textbook.
 
IMG_3485.pngIMG_3484.pngThe nam meanwhile moistens things up quick (sounding near CLT) So that makes me skeptical of the dryer globals. Pretty strong SW flow aloft on the NAM. This model picks up on Warm air advection and FGEN far better given it’s a higher res model. Remember overruning events often tick NW but have higher snow amounts at the last minute due to more WAA then modeled
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Warm it a little bit for sure smh


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Probably not. Lots of heat at the surface out there would cause rising air = deepening trough.. also the smoke would increase precip out there and possibly all the way here? The only model that considers smoke is HRRR..
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 161133View attachment 161134The nam meanwhile moistens things up quick. So that makes me skeptical of the dryer globals. Pretty strong SW flow aloft on the NAM. This model picks up on Warm air advection and FGEN far better given it’s a higher res model.
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I did see some on American alluding to the ensembles being about out of their ballpark considering the systems only a few days out. And globals having qpf issues for the reasons fro was mentioning above with WAA and FGEN
 
I just want to remind everyone this is about the 5th swing in about 4 days between amped and flat. It’s still only Tuesday night and if you’re feeling comfortable I highly recommend you remember that the odds things trend more NW in the final 24-36 hours is a very likely outcome. Especially when the driving force is WAA and overrunning. Personally I like the flat look at this lead because I’m pretty positive we all know where this will go. The H5 changes have been volatile even in the short range after both pieces of energy has been sampled with this system. Could this be a less amped system? Sure, but if you’ve followed these things especially when it’s overrunning and WAA being the driving force you know where things tend to trend the closer we get in the short range. Just food for thought
 
mrdaddyman said:
Poof . . .

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The earlier vort that 1st over injects into the Baja wave, it kicks it out quicker and shears it out quicker, sort of like a -PNa ejection that shears out against the SE US ridge. We need some help asap from the northern stream or we are cooked. Or we need a trend to a slower Baja wave again or more backed up one, or the vort over WY to be further east
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The earlier vort that 1st over injects into the Baja wave, it kicks it out quicker and shears it out quicker, sort of like a -PNa ejection that shears out against the SE US ridge. We need some help asap from the northern stream or we are cooked. Or we need a trend to a slower Baja wave again or more backed up one, or the vort over WY to be further east
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northern stream has shored up in the past, but feel like that's our best option to shore up the structure of this trough
 
ILMRoss said:
northern stream has shored up in the past, but feel like that's our best option to shore up the structure of this trough
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Yup that’s our last minute hope now. It’s in a difficult sampling area as of now so still time. But it’s clearly becoming a necessity of this setup. Sure it might amp up this storm in the wrong way but at this point we need help for notable QPF
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yup that’s our last minute hope now. It’s in a difficult sampling area as of now so still time. But it’s clearly becoming a necessity of this setup. Sure it might amp up this storm in the wrong way but at this point we need help for notable QPF
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not impossible. nam had a solid look. anything to give our trough a U shape and not a V shape pointed to Texas works and does wonders for forcing
 
Not good trends today and tonight east of the Apps but I do want to mention that this tends to be the pattern for most storms. It seems like, no matter the set up, we see an increase in snow maps during the 5-3 day lead in period, typically a pretty big dropoff after; then in the last 24-36 hours we usually see some adjustments back the other way to something more in the middle. Not every time of course, and maybe not this time, but this seems to be the pattern most storms.
 
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