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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

As expected... 3km NAM is getting in to range and it's dropping surface temps much quicker and lower than other modeling where precip has begun.

All the globals have me bottoming out at either 31 or 32 for the event. The 3km NAM has me down to 29 at 1pm friday as the snow has just started with some room left wetbulb down further.
Screen Shot 2025-01-08 at 8.38.05 AM.png
 
malak05 said:
It always seems too due to multitude of factors timing, elevation, frontogenesis in big storms a small stretch on the west side always gets a surprise bump in snow.
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Yep - something about that microclimate always seems to outperform. Also, Carrollton is always my canary in the coal mine for what to expect in metro ATL
 
rburrel2 said:
As expected... 3km NAM is getting in to range and it's dropping surface temps much quicker and lower than other modeling where precip has begun.

All the globals have me bottoming out at either 31 or 32 for the event. The 3km NAM has me down to 29 at 1pm friday as the snow has just started with some room left wetbulb down further.
View attachment 161230
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Again 950mb to 975mb temps are cold...-3 to -4c...combine that with wetbulbs well into the 20s..and temps likely in the 31 to 34 range at precip start time..there is little question in my mind temps won't fall into the 20s area wide in GA and sc. There really is no reason why it shouldn't happen.
 
From RAH. Last three paragraphs of the long-range discussion:

Although the track of the low is a classic Miller A cyclogenesis
pattern, the area of low pressure is generally weak and lacks a
closed low at 850mb as it progresses across across the Carolinas.
This open wave at 850mb is able to more effectively advect warm air
aloft into the Carolinas, even on the north and northwest side of
the surface low. This would introduce more mixed p-type
precipitation, including freezing rain, into an otherwise mainly a
rain/snow event indicative of a pattern of a more well-established
and deepening Miller A surface low. This will place an even greater
importance on the track and timing of the surface low as it
approaches the region.

Investigating further from a cluster analysis perspective highlights
the most likely scenario as one with a more progressive northern
stream trough to our north and a quicker evolving system (impacts
Fri evening through Sat morning). The quicker northern wave would
help prevent the 850mb 0C isotherm from rippling too far north into
our area and favoring mostly snow/sleet across our area outside of
the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain which may transition to
rain/freezing rain. Latest forecast leaned more heavily on this
solution and results in a longer period of all snow with a
transition to wintry mix Sat morning as dry air aloft shuts off ice
crystal growth.

A very important caveat is that the other most plausible scenario
results in a very different outcome for central NC. This pattern
features a slower evolving mid/upper pattern (impacts late Fri night
into Sat afternoon) and results in the warm nose aloft lifting
deeper into central NC, shifting the mostly snow regime to along and
north of the I-85 corridor, and introducing a greater freezing rain
threat south of the I-85 corridor. The forecast will likely continue
to change as we start move into the range of higher-resolution NWP
guidance so be sure to check back to the local forecast regularly
over the coming days for the latest updates on trends to which
scenario is likely to evolve.
 
Is 24-48 hour time frame when we start seeing the best models of what’s going to happen or is still up in the air?
 
Makeitsnow said:
I'm really looking forward to seeing how these ia models do. If I get 6 inches as shown here vs what i expect to happen...a few inches and a lot of sleet/ice... i will be impressed
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I don't think it's handling the temps correctly...but I do think it could be handling the track/precip good.
 
NEGaweather said:
87e839772aa4def1fddf71afe5907d5a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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This is such a strange map. Gainesville and Cherokee county 1-5" but in shading for 4-6? Atlanta less than 2" but on the border of 2-3 and 3-4?
 
Comparing 6z 12k NAM Kuchera and 6z 12k NAM BUFKIT for the carolinas:


RDU: 2.7" Kuchera, 2.7" BUFKIT
GSO: 5.2" Kuchera, 4.0 BUFKIT
INT: 5.6" Kuchera, 4.3 BUFKIT
CLT: 1.2" Kuchera, 1.9" BUFKIT
GMU: 1.7" Kuchera, 2.4" BUFKIT
CAE: 0.7" Kuchera, 1.3" BUFKIT
AVL: 1.7" Kuchera, 1.4" BUFKIT

Again, when these numbers are similar, I always feel more comfortable. We'll see what 12z brings.
 
tempo47 said:
Is 24-48 hour time frame when we start seeing the best models of what’s going to happen or is still up in the air?
Click to expand...
Not to sound like a wise A$$ but my experience is just best way is usually just purely look to the West when its starting up it will reveal the truth usually because Models are even 24 hours out fickle and have their "tendency's" which can make spots miss + or - alot... I mean we are pretty locked in now with a overall window of winter precip coming at least in a general idea but certain areas are looking for different things

1. GA/AL looking for the track not not cut and amp to much to bring in WAA in central parts of state.
2. Carolinas are looking for a little more amp and juice to get better results further east and not drying out since area will be VERY dry there
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH. Last three paragraphs of the long-range discussion:

Although the track of the low is a classic Miller A cyclogenesis
pattern, the area of low pressure is generally weak and lacks a
closed low at 850mb as it progresses across across the Carolinas.
This open wave at 850mb is able to more effectively advect warm air
aloft into the Carolinas, even on the north and northwest side of
the surface low. This would introduce more mixed p-type
precipitation, including freezing rain, into an otherwise mainly a
rain/snow event indicative of a pattern of a more well-established
and deepening Miller A surface low. This will place an even greater
importance on the track and timing of the surface low as it
approaches the region.

Investigating further from a cluster analysis perspective highlights
the most likely scenario as one with a more progressive northern
stream trough to our north and a quicker evolving system (impacts
Fri evening through Sat morning). The quicker northern wave would
help prevent the 850mb 0C isotherm from rippling too far north into
our area and favoring mostly snow/sleet across our area outside of
the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain which may transition to
rain/freezing rain. Latest forecast leaned more heavily on this
solution and results in a longer period of all snow with a
transition to wintry mix Sat morning as dry air aloft shuts off ice
crystal growth.

A very important caveat is that the other most plausible scenario
results in a very different outcome for central NC. This pattern
features a slower evolving mid/upper pattern (impacts late Fri night
into Sat afternoon) and results in the warm nose aloft lifting
deeper into central NC, shifting the mostly snow regime to along and
north of the I-85 corridor, and introducing a greater freezing rain
threat south of the I-85 corridor. The forecast will likely continue
to change as we start move into the range of higher-resolution NWP
guidance so be sure to check back to the local forecast regularly
over the coming days for the latest updates on trends to which
scenario is likely to evolve.
Click to expand...

Yes Allan Huffman just said that he thinks right now the Triangle area will have more moisture than the euro but less than the nam kinda the rgem/gefs idea. Will have his map out around 12:30 or so


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bud006 said:
FFC with quite the statement this morning for the city and suburbs. Leaning in heavy on more impactful snow into the city. It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a setup/forecast like this for downtown Atlanta.

—30—
View attachment 161241View attachment 161242
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Yeah the have dialed up some #s we ain't seeing yet and are definitely seeing trend more toward snow which is good because no one wants 3/4 inch of freezing rain
 
Word of caution for model precip maps: Check the soundings. The long range HRRR maps for Alabama are in left field compared to the sounding data. Ex. Tuscaloosa and BMX each have cold rain on the soundings with maps showing widespread IP/ZR. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain why the maps can sometimes be off kilter with the numerical data.
 
The difference in p-types (more sn less zr or vice versus) with the models could be related to the 850 low, whether closed/open and it's track. I know Shane has mentioned this numerous times through the years and @griteater has mentioned it in this thread. Also Rah NWS afd mentioned that it being open allowed more room for waa, closed and north of track you're in better shape for all sn. I'm not as skilled in tracking the 850 lp and something I need to work on because it is vital to p-types
 
ForsythSnow said:
We haven't had a substantial snow since 2020, we're overdue.

I'm hoping to see some reversal on trends today or new data to roll in as our energy comes ashore, but not the other direction so much.
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Yep, my part of Georgia we haven’t seen a trace of snow since the surprise foot in Dec 2017
 
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